justbizness45's Account Talk

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Still 50C/50S going into tomorrow. I am about 60/40 on whether tomorrow will be an up or down day. Tomorrows inaguration is at noon so we won't be able to see the effect on the market to his speech prior to the cutoff deadline so the afternoon is a big unknown IMO. I am hopeful for some euphoria. The thing to remember is this is still a bear market 2 day upswing. Anything past 3 days is a rally in my book. Since I don't think this a bonifide bear market rally I will be out very soon.

1.78% for the month/year and hoping to hold some gains.
 
My gains obviously didn't hold today. I am now down around 4% for the month. That's 2 months worth of gains wiped out by my inability to make my moves when I want to.:mad: Oh well, my problem but it's nice to vent. Anyone think there might be a dead cat bounce tomorrow? I'm not sure what I'm going to do from this point. I am remembering how badly I was burned in Oct/Nov and think of cutting my losses for the month. Will try to post my move when I decide. Good luck all.
 
Predictability is not an option at all any longer. A bounce is possible, but there is no way to predict well based on fundamentals or technicals or anything else. It's only right to be OUT of this market, unless you can day trade. If you've been IN this market then your decisions are more complex. You may see an S&P at 775 or even 750, with an outside possibility of 630, but predicting before we get to any point is simply not possible.
 
JTH said:
S&P 500 Futures currently +11.58
Click to expand...

I will probably cut bait and run today. My losses are recoverable, especially when we hit 750 or lower. This is the "second slam dunk" rally I played and got burnt. Got caught up in the hype. There will not be a third. Putting in a 100G order. Good luck to all,
 
justbizness45 said:
I will probably cut bait and run today. My losses are recoverable, especially when we hit 750 or lower. This is the "second slam dunk" rally I played and got burnt. Got caught up in the hype. There will not be a third. Putting in a 100G order. Good luck to all,
Click to expand...

Is this your last IFT?
 
justbizness45 said:
Got caught up in the hype.
Click to expand...
Are you actually tied with G?

If I was in your position (.13) I'd have done the same thing, but I'm in too deep to quickly recover. If we drop from here, you'll be well settled with your decision :D And we'd have to rise over 6% for you to begin to have any regrets!

Well played... ;)
 
JTH said:
Are you actually tied with G?

Yes, I am exactly where I would have been if I had not made any IFTs and stayed on the lilly pad.

If I was in your position (.13) I'd have done the same thing, but I'm in too deep to quickly recover. If we drop from here, you'll be well settled with your decision :D And we'd have to rise over 6% for you to begin to have any regrets!

No way I could have guessed the magnitude joy the fairy powder they spread today would bring. :p I had to make a decision way early 0915ET and had reached my stop loss point yesterday so getting out was a no brainer and positive futures was incentive.

Well played... ;)
Click to expand...

Thanks, it was all luck. :embarrest: I was resigned to being down a few percent this month.
 
JB, I think I'll just read

Amity Shaes 'The Forgotten Man' again...

That dude X is looking quite familiar. You know him. The guy that simply survives and pays. Couldn't find him a while back, but now he looks back at me every morning:laugh:

I won't be back to my standard asset allocation till FDR Jr. lights up a new shining path.

But only if I like the path lit up:rolleyes:
 
Well I took the weekend off from following financials and bummed around instead. Saturday we had a training at a vet clinic covering common injuries to working SAR dogs. After a short powerpoint presentation we brought the dogs in and a bandaging practice insued. It was actually quite hilarious watching these dogs walk around with paws, legs and heads all bandaged up. And the looks on their faces was priceless. WE actually had a blast. Anyway hope everyone had a great weekend!!
 
From the Market-Ticker:

"Britain was just three hours away from going bust last year after a secret run on the banks, one of Gordon Brown's Ministers has revealed. City Minister Paul Myners disclosed that on Friday, October 10, the country was 'very close' to a complete banking collapse after 'major depositors' attempted to withdraw their money en masse. The Mail on Sunday has been told that the Treasury was preparing for the banks to shut their doors to all customers, terminate electronic transfers and even block hole-in-the-wall cash withdrawals."

Not sure how the market is going to react tomorrow but this is scary. Iceland is one thing, but a major European nation is another.

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/
 
justbizness45 said:
From the Market-Ticker:

"Britain was just three hours away from going bust last year after a secret run on the banks, one of Gordon Brown's Ministers has revealed. City Minister Paul Myners disclosed that on Friday, October 10, the country was 'very close' to a complete banking collapse after 'major depositors' attempted to withdraw their money en masse. The Mail on Sunday has been told that the Treasury was preparing for the banks to shut their doors to all customers, terminate electronic transfers and even block hole-in-the-wall cash withdrawals."

Not sure how the market is going to react tomorrow but this is scary. Iceland is one thing, but a major European nation is another.

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/
Click to expand...

This ticker is a must-read, IMO. I don't say that about every one of Karl's op-ed pieces, since he does tend to repeat himself a lot-with reason, but this one is a must-read and a please-read. :worried: We are far far far from being out of the woods in this country and I don't think ME sovereign funds would ride to the rescue, not if they've already emptied their pockets w/Barclays.
 
While the other You Tubers have been projecting nuclear winter for us, Denninger used to have confidence we as a nation will be better off than the rest of the world. Has anyone heard him go differently and start talking like Schiff?
 
Good article JB, if it happens I sure hope he figures out the trigger and we are paying attention.
 
Wow, all the way back on the third page!! I took a couple of days off from the markets to recharge my brain. The markets have been giving me a headache. :blink: I am still 100G. Ready to start Feb and 2 fresh IFTs. I am thankful to have gone in the market and come out even with G in Jan. If I had not bailed it would have been a painful month. Congrats to the 22 that managed a gain better than G this month. I am now 1.06 percent behind my goal for the year but that is one day with the voltility of this market.

I think down is the main direction of the market is still down, so one or two days in continues to be the mantra in my mind. It looks like the next good resistance is 800-810 on the S&P. If we get a hard drop down I might try to jump on a dead cat if it holds. If not then a retest of 750 may be in the works. This is all dependent on the FED not doing any tinkering. If they tinker then there is no telling which way things will go.

The bad bank idea is losing steam. The banks are unwilling to take the mark down on the assets and the gov correctly doesn't want to pay full price. It will be interesting to see how it works out. If they force transparency and force illiquid banks into receivership, I like the bad bank idea. Otherwise it wastes too much of our taxpayer money. JMO.

Have a great weekend. No SAR training tomorrow so I am free to finally get some work done around the house.
 
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