JTH's Account Talk

[tsptalk]

I've also wondered if the new higher priced shares and lack of splits has added to the lower trading volume.

It used to be you rarely saw a stock trade over $100 before they would split it. They wanted investors to be able to buy in blocks of 100 shares. Now the share prices go into the multiple hundreds of dollars, even into 4 figures, without splitting keeping share volume lower.

Just a thought.

 

[JTH]

I've also wondered if the new higher priced shares and lack of splits has added to the lower trading volume.

It used to be you rarely saw a stock trade over $100 before they would split it. They wanted investors to be able to buy in blocks of 100 shares. Now the share prices go into the multiple hundreds of dollars, even into 4 figures, without splitting keeping share volume lower.

Just a thought.

Yea that's a good point, and then I wonder how the whole new Robin-hood fractional shares works. And then perhaps some trading companies already own the shares, with their customers buying & selling amongst each other.

 

[JTH]

I've always wondered if I could buy my way down to the very bottom, and have just enough cash leftover to buy a pizza.

These are the levels identified in the 2025: The First 4 Months blog.

 

[JTH]

EDIT 15-Session including the day of the 19-Feb High

"Bear with me"

Measured from the 15-Session high to low (not the close)

From the 19-Feb High to the 11-Mar Low we've lost -10.07%

From 1962-Present, the 14-Session High/Low has lost -9% to -11% 217 of 15,923 times.

At present this 2025-Correction ranks 148 worst of 217 within the -9% to -11% 15-Session range.
Under these same conditions the 15-45-Session High/Low win ratio ranges from 0% to 7% (not good)

Under all 15-Session High/Low conditions (not filtered) 11-Mar-2025 ranks 294th worst of 15,923 putting it in the bottom .018%

The 15-Session High/Low has been < 0% 605 times under Pres. Cyc. Year 1 and Quarter 1.
Under these same conditions the 15-45-Session High/Low win ratio ranges from 6% to 37% (not good)

But, from those 605 events, the 15-Session High/Low was the final low 85 times, so this does give us a 14% chance the low is already in.

 

[JTH]

Good morning my fellow constitutionalist.

I've heard numerous reports this is one of the faster -10% corrections.
I can't speak to that but we can say this is one of the faster -10% drawdowns within a 15-Session window.
From this perspective since 1983, it ranks 192nd worst of 10,664 placing it in the bottom 1.8%

The absolute worst 15-Session drawdown started 22-Sep-2008 losing -33.10%

 

[WorkFE]

22-Sep-2008 losing -33.10%

That was brutal, remember it well.

 

[nasa1974]

I lost 12.82% that year.

 

[JTH]

2008 Year in review...

Finished -14.89%

Due to a deployment, I was in the I fund from Sep 07 to Feb 08

Worst was -18.38%

Best was -3.03%

Next year's goal... Beat the G-Fund

22-Sep-2008 losing -33.10%

That was brutal, remember it well.

I lost 12.82% that year.

I had to pull up an old post because I don''t have those files anymore, looks like I lost -14.89% that year.

SPX lost -38.49% in 2008, but what was perhaps more brutal is many folks (myself included) didn't jump back in early enough in 2009 which earned 23.45%. I think in 2009 I lost -3.27% so in reality my 2-year return was slightly worse than SPX.

 

[JTH]

Last night I deployed more cash, with reserves now sitting at 17.5%
I'll hold at these levels, if we go south of -15% I may take another bite (we'll see).

Anyhow, here's the latest Blog: Will we go lower?

And for next week we have Options Expiration which may prove to be the catalyst we need to throw in an exhaustive top or bottom.
From the last 12, it would appear that the Day prior to OptX (Thursday) has the lowest win ratio.