JTH's Account Talk

[FAAM]

Good morning

For some randomness, I'll post a correction chart from previous times. The 67/68 Correction was interesting and we might find some commonalities with 2025. The Sep/Oct top started off with a swift -6.61% pullback which finalized with 7 consecutive sessions closing down. This was the final peak of 1967 which closed the year with a 20.09% gain.

While in 67 the index peaked in September it did work to recover prices giving us a shallow double top fake-out in Jan-68. But this is where the fun ended, with a 35-session decline starting off with 8 consecutive closes down. In totality this was a -10.11% correction which took 110 sessions to fully drawdown, and 37 sessions to recover. One interesting observation, the bottom of this correction was tested 8 times.

Like 2024, 1967's September closed higher than October.
Like 2025, 1968's Feb closed down & March closed down YTD.

1967 Closed up 20.09%, 1968 closed up 7.66%
2024 Closed up 23.31%, with 2025... TBD

Yah, good data exercise & points. Trying to think outta-da-box after reading your post, I realized this.... During BOTH time-periods shown we had fairly major WARs that we should-have PAID for (Viet Nam - no war-bonds or such so it pretty much was covered by increasing the Nat'l. Debt; Ukraine - we were helping to pay for it but perhaps should have paid more, & then we stopped & now not paying much)... also, both had transition of POTUS (ok, I'm off by a year on the election of POTUS #37, but close enough?) - from Elephant to Donkey, with the Democratic candidates a bit conflicted, & the other was/is a criminal who would-have-been/was impeached [but the POTUS #37 won fairly handily I recall, while the #47 claimed a huge majority when he won by the lowest of margins].

 

[JTH]

Yah, good data exercise & points. Trying to think outta-da-box after reading your post, I realized this.... During BOTH time-periods shown we had fairly major WARs that we should-have PAID for (Viet Nam - no war-bonds or such so it pretty much was covered by increasing the Nat'l. Debt; Ukraine - we were helping to pay for it but perhaps should have paid more, & then we stopped & now not paying much)... also, both had transition of POTUS (ok, I'm off by a year on the election of POTUS #37, but close enough?) - from Elephant to Donkey, with the Democratic candidates a bit conflicted, & the other was/is a criminal who would-have-been/was impeached [but the POTUS #37 won fairly handily I recall, while the #47 claimed a huge majority when he won by the lowest of margins].

Some good correlations, I was also thinking about how it led into 1969 and the how the 70s were a wasteland.

1969-79 averaged 1.88% per year.

 

[WorkFE]

1969-79 averaged 1.88% per year.

None of that please.

 

[nasa1974]

Then 80 to 81 you had mortgage rates jumping to almost 15% and banks/savings & loans being bought and sold almost on a regular basis. I got caught up in that mess just after I got married in 79.

 

[JTH]

Thank you sir may I have another?

Well above the 2000-2002 Bear Market Bottom (but not fully recovered from the 2000-Peak), here's an extensive Light-Correction from 2004.
Having climbed 41.03% off the May-03 bottom, 2003 had just ended the year with a 26.38% gain, and heading into 2004 we were still making new highs.

So for the setup, Jan-04 had just given us a fresh new high, with Feb & Mar giving us a pronounced V-shaped Double-Top. Although we were still making new highs it was also "perhaps" apparent momentum was declining.

In 13-sessions we processed a swift -5.67% pullback (yea it happens) then headed right back up to re-test the highs only to pullback again with another 29-session -5.78% pullback. Fool me twice shame on you, how about a 3rd -5.24% pullback? Technically speaking we could call this one -8.13% pullback, since we never did recover from the first drop, but gosh darn that must have been a frustrating 110 session drawdown.

Like 2024's 23.31% gain, 2003's 26.38% gain was a double-digit winner.
___For reference, over the past 63 years we've had 3-Triples & 14-Doubles.

Like 2025, 2004 had both a Jan & Feb peak (but 2004 held ground until 4-March).
For 2004's 110-session drawdown, in 2025 terms this would put our yearly bottom at 29-July.
From what I've read/heard, 2025 expectations were to be a sub 10% year, while 2004 closed at 8.99%

 

[JTH]

In regards to the I-Fund and it's recent transition into the "Whatever Fund" that tracks MSCI ACWI IMI ex USA ex China ex Hong Kong Index. Frankly the fact they continue to advertise the I-Fund's historical performance under a different fund, is at best misleading.

To date, I can't track it via tradingview, and Yahoo only keeps 1-day of data.


As Craig Johnson puts it.

"I don't think that the world order has changed okay, the world order has been the US innovates, China replicates and Europe regulates and I don't think that that world order has changed despite the tariffs any way you cut it and one of the things that we've done is we've created a very simple kind of uh analysis looking at uh the MSEI all world index EX_US and sort of compared that to the S&P 500 on an annual basis and one of the things that we've sort of interestingly found is...." Starts at 22:22

 

[JTH]

Last Sunday, we finally had our time-change, which puts my head back in sync with the markets and gives me the mundane predictable routine I so enjoy. Pre-Markets Open at 10AM, Markets open at 15:30 and close at 22:00.

Blog: 2025-Q2-April​

 

[tsptalk]

That beats my 6:30 am open in PT.

 

[FAAM]

Thank you sir may I have another?

Well above the 2000-2002 Bear Market Bottom (but not fully recovered from the 2000-Peak), here's an extensive Light-Correction from 2004.
.... Like 2025, 2004 had both a Jan & Feb peak (but 2004 held ground until 4-March).
For 2004's 110-session drawdown, in 2025 terms this would put our yearly bottom at 29-July.
From what I've read/heard, 2025 expectations were to be a sub 10% year, while 2004 closed at 8.99%...

OUCH, that 2003-04 comparison with now looks ominous & a bit scary... yet I'd take it -- with the proviso that 2025 doesn't turn out greatly worse than that, which is a fear that I fear is a significant possibility, and if not so this year - then look out for such really tough times in '26-27.

 

[JTH]

That beats my 6:30 am open in PT.

Yea I don't miss that timezone, I'm not gonna lie, I crawl out of bed around 9ish, shower, walk the dog, brew the coffee, and usually have the first sip right about the time the pre-markets open.

OUCH, that 2003-04 comparison with now looks ominous & a bit scary... yet I'd take it -- with the proviso that 2025 doesn't turn out greatly worse than that, which is a fear that I fear is a significant possibility, and if not so this year - then look out for such really tough times in '26-27.

For me the worst outcome would be the 2-year 2000-2002 bear market, mostly because it took 5-years to recover from that drop. Since I already have statistical concerns for 2026, I will entertain a plausible 2-year bear market, which is why I'm heavy in cash at 17.5%

 

[JTH]

In celebration of libertardion day we are 89-sessions into DJT's 2nd Term.

Obama 2 has a clearly defined lead with Biden & Reagan 2 on his heels.

If nice guys finish last, then Carter is in the lead. Bush Jr, 1 and DJT 2 are neck-in-neck as the worst.

 

[JTH]

Switching over into a 2-Day chart shows a clearly defined lower shadow on the 2nd to last candlestick.

 

[JTH]

Closes on the left post-market live on the right. That's a hard selloff, I wonder what that looks like tomorrow.....

SPX ETF and the 11 SPDR Sector ETFs.

 

[nasa1974]

Closes on the left post-market live on the right. That's a hard selloff, I wonder what that looks like tomorrow.....

SPX ETF and the 11 SPDR Sector ETFs.

View attachment 68618

Ouch! Forget the sticky pants and double up on the depends. Or maybe just stay in bed with some soothing music playing all day.

 

[JTH]

Here's the setup going into Post-Tariff-Meltdown

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As from the 19_Feb Peak the dominant theme, large-weighted-stocks have taken the brunt of damage.

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Nothing gives me a bigger smile than seeing old man Warren Buffett's BRK.B smelling like a fresh bed of roses.

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I've modded the VIX by inverting the colors, the theme here "Red is dead"

 

[JTH]

In regards to Thursday's Tariff Terror Day 1

From 1983-Present
___At 4.94% the ATR was in the Top 99% of its percentile range, the highest since Nov-2022.
___The -3.14% opening gap was the 6th worst of 10,919 sessions, the 5-worst were during the COVID era.
___Our current best 1-63 Day Performance is -2.26% at 15-sessions, in the bottom 17.6%
___Our current worst 1-63 Day Performance is -12.17% at 31-sessions, in the bottom 1.9%

Based off the March Swing High to the recent low (as I see it) the 50% retracement bounce is SPX 5888 (the yellow box), thus from my perspective anything below 5888 is dead-money until proven otherwise. Since I last deployed cash on the initial correction, I'll hold at these levels until we breach the -15% area (the red box). In the meantime I'm sitting on my hands and raising cash.

 

[JTH]

From the previous 63 years we've had 52 occasions where the S&P 500 lost <= -4%.

4 occasions where the S&P 500 lost <= -4% twice in a row.

2020-03-11, -4.89%, -9.51%
2008-11-19, -6.12%, -6.71%
2008-11-05, -5.27%, -5.03%
1987-10-16, -5.08%, -20.46%

 

[JTH]

Since I last deployed cash on the initial correction, I'll hold at these levels until we breach the -15% area (the red box). In the meantime I'm sitting on my hands and raising cash.

Some of my boxes are ticked.

Price kissed the Purple 500-MA, dipped below 63-LR Std. Dev-3, and we've drawndown -17.06%
So I'm deploying cash from 17.5% down to 15%, should be fun....

 

[JTH]

Good morning

It should be another exciting day

"Anything you can do I can do better"

 

[nasa1974]

Good morning

It should be another exciting day

"Anything you can do I can do better"

View attachment 68712

Shouldn't that be anything you can do I can do worse.