JTH's Account Talk

[JTH]

JTH-ESD, IFT Eob today, from 100S to 100F

From my weekend blog: "At this time I plan to follow the path, which means the system will IFT for 1-day into the F-Fund on Thur 10-Mar, then move into the C-Fund. This will lead into the best combo for April which starts in the C-Fund. "

JTH-ESD, IFT EoB today, from 100F to 100C

 

[JTH]

JTH-ALPAFS, IFT EoB today, from 100S to 100C.

Comparing the SPX/W4500 charts side-by-side, SPX is both closer to breaching new highs, and has pulled back less than W4500. Regardless of the current perceptions out there, on this PnF scale, all indexes (SPX/W4500/TRAN/NDX) still have bullish price objectives.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Hi JTH,
Please remind me... what is JTH-ESD versus JTH-ALPAFS? These are two additional items on the tracker aside from your personal moves under jth--right?

In any case, looks like you are not planning to exit equities anytime soon. Hope it keeps going up. I was thinking to exit but wish to hold out just a bit longer...maybe until next Tuesday.

Best wishes to you and everyone on your investments!!!!!!! :smile:

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

This is an awesome chart! Thank you!!! :smile:

JTH-ESD, IFT EoB today, from 100F to 100C

View attachment 37508

 

[JTH]

Hi JTH,
Please remind me... what is JTH-ESD versus JTH-ALPAFS? These are two additional items on the tracker aside from your personal moves under jth--right?

In any case, looks like you are not planning to exit equities anytime soon. Hope it keeps going up. I was thinking to exit but wish to hold out just a bit longer...maybe until next Tuesday.

Best wishes to you and everyone on your investments!!!!!!! :smile:

JTH-ESD (Evolving Statistical Data) analyzes the G-Fund rate, SPX/W4500/AGG. Using the current G-Fund rate, historical prices, and the IFT limits, to calculate the best statistical path to take. There are additional filters I use to help delay or detour the signals.

JTH-ALPAFS (Advanced Logarithmic Point & Figure System) uses a .25% box scale, with a 4-box reversal, across SPX/W4500/TRAN/NDX. With the Logarithmic scale, each box is worth .25%, so the indexes are equalized with each other, meaning it is easier to compare them side-by-side.

Both systems are posted in my weekly blog, both have some rules, but also have some degree of flexibility. During late 2015, when I came back to the forum, I did make some minor changes, in an effort to improve their performance.

 

[JTH]

In any case, looks like you are not planning to exit equities anytime soon. Hope it keeps going up. I was thinking to exit but wish to hold out just a bit longer...maybe until next Tuesday.

Yes, I do plan to be invested for March and much of April, because I'm confident these markets are poised to go higher vs. lower. I realize I'm in the minority here, but I'm ok with that, and I sleep very well

 

[FogSailing]

Thanks JTH for all the information you share. I know I really appreciate it and enjoy reading comments and your charts. You're likely on to something...when everyone is bearish be bullish..

Here's just a few laughables about big data:

View attachment 37522

View attachment 37523

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FS

 

[amoeba]

Yes, I do plan to be invested for March and much of April, because I'm confident these markets are poised to go higher vs. lower. I realize I'm in the minority here, but I'm ok with that, and I sleep very well

I'm also a buyer at these levels, especially with the recent downward ^VIX direction and the forward speculation in energy and materials. I think next week will be a good one.

 

[FAB1]

I'm also a buyer at these levels, especially with the recent downward ^VIX direction and the forward speculation in energy and materials. I think next week will be a good one.

And seeing our funds running opposite to today's lackluster performance in Oil, is encouraging.

So if oil turns around will the rest of the market SkyRocket??

Of course how much of today's action is built on Euro- enthusiasm with the same 0% interest / QE bizness that the Fed doctored the US markets with since the arrival of... um since 2008ish.

 

[JTH]

All you player-hating bears can suck it (at least for today)

 

[Whipsaw]

All you player-hating bears can suck it (at least for today)

View attachment 37529

BPO 2164!

 

[FAB1]

Is there a calculator onsite where I can easily figure daily gains with a split allocation?

or should I just wait until Tom updates the tracker later? :blink:

 

[FAB1]

looking at the tracker a lot of us are running for the hills.

A few are getting in though.

 

[Whipsaw]

looking at the tracker a lot of us are running for the hills.

A few are getting in though.

Can't argue with FWMs move, booking gains and looking for a lower entry, odds are pretty good he'll get it. Gotta love that extra IFT.

 

[ravensfan]

Is there a calculator onsite where I can easily figure daily gains with a split allocation?

or should I just wait until Tom updates the tracker later? :blink:

Well you can take the daily prices from the TSP website and use TSP Returns Calculator available here at TSPTalk. To get to the calculator open up the TSPTalk homepage. Go to the bottom third of the page and look for "TSP Utilities". Click on the word "Utilities" colored blue. It will take you to the calculator. There are also instructions available to help you use the calculator. Daily prices are posted at the TSP website usually around 7:30 pm Eastern time. Hope this helps...

 

[jpcavin]

Is there a calculator onsite where I can easily figure daily gains with a split allocation?

or should I just wait until Tom updates the tracker later? :blink:

Based on your current allocation 10/5/20/25 and noon prices....approx 1%...is that what you were looking for?

 

[JTH]

For the Month of March, the markets will peak on 24-25 March.

Next Tue-Thur are the 3-strongest days of the month for SPX/W4500/AGG

Don't forget about the large cap rotation as we end the 1st quarter...

 

[JTH]

For the Month of March, the markets will peak on 24 or 28 March.

Next Tue-Thur are the 3-strongest days of the month for SPX/W4500/AGG

Don't forget about the large cap rotation as we end the 1st quarter...

Correction, make that 24 or 28 March, because of the holiday weekend.

 

[rspring]

For the Month of March, the markets will peak on 24-25 March.

Next Tue-Thur are the 3-strongest days of the month for SPX/W4500/AGG

Don't forget about the large cap rotation as we end the 1st quarter...

JTH, couldn't you have posted this before the deadline today? LOL. I have been on this train since 24 Feb. and decided to move 80% to G today. I may need to think about entering back in on Mon. with my last IFT> Thanks for your great charts that show the transition from one fund to the other.

 

[JTH]

JTH, couldn't you have posted this before the deadline today? LOL. I have been on this train since 24 Feb. and decided to move 80% to G today. I may need to think about entering back in on Mon. with my last IFT> Thanks for your great charts that show the transition from one fund to the other.

No problem, I'm glad you have an extra IFT to get back in