JTH's Account Talk

[WorkFE]

At this time, I believe we are gearing up for a 6-8% March, and there may not be another opportunity to jump in.

I could live with that. While sitting in equities all year, early on I took some lumps. It has fought back pretty good, a 6-8 March would help me sleep.

 

[FogSailing]

I hope you're right Jason, but like a good golf swing, I'm not committing till the hips begin to turn....

I've tried to time it too many times with "less than favorable results".

Best of luck to you in your investments.

FS

 

[law87]

IFT EoB today, from 100G to 100S

At this time, I believe we are gearing up for a 6-8% March, and there may not be another opportunity to jump in.

Looking at the charts does not make me want to jump in, but much of my statistical data (in various forms, some not posted) leads me to belive I won't be able to out-time the markets.

Volume has been small, the move up looks very tire and topped out...I am wondering what you are seeing, I was about to ask if you going to move to F

 

[JTH]

Interesting points of view from everyone.

Here's the thing, we've climbed 180 points off the double bottom, pierced the 1943 double top, and retraced more than 50% of wave AB. Meanwhile, SPX March has its best 3-day start in over 40 years...

 

[JTH]

JTH-ALPAFS, IFT EoB today, from 100G to 100S.

Pushing ALPAFS into the S-Fund. The system has lost it's edge to the C-Fund and is within 2 days of losing its edge against the S-Fund, so I'm reluctantly putting the system back in.

 

[FAB1]

Jason,

IS that 3 White Soldiers I see on the $DWCPF charts today?

Or four? : )

 

[JTH]

Jason,

IS that 3 White Soldiers I see on the $DWCPF charts today?

Or four? : )

Impressive...

 

[JTH]

Weekend Review: For myself, I’m currently in the S-Fund, up .54% MTD and down -4.49% YTD (I haven't lost performance with myself, but I have lost ground against the indexes)
In hindsight, my decision to exit the markets on 18-Feb, made for a great monthly performance, but also lead me into a horrible March start. Having said that, the market's outlook was significantly more bearish back then, so I don't consider my choice to be a mistake, but it was the wrong decision. For now, I won't be catching up with the markets, but I will be looking for a 3-4% gain in March.

Trading the Stats:*Week 10

 

[FAB1]

I banked some gains and diversified the remaining funds favoring S & I with a toe in the F fund as well.

This way if the market moves to fill the lower gap I can shed stocks and hopefully beat the G fund for the rest of March and if the market continues up towards JTH's 2081 line the gains will also kill the G fund.

Just was not comfortable with a 100% single index IFT like I usually commit to. Good Luck All!

 

[JTH]

I banked some gains and diversified the remaining funds favoring S & I with a toe in the F fund as well.

This way if the market moves to fill the lower gap I can shed stocks and hopefully beat the G fund for the rest of March and if the market continues up towards JTH's 2081 line the gains will also kill the G fund.

Just was not comfortable with a 100% single index IFT like I usually commit to. Good Luck All!

I hear ya, there are times when I'm very convicted to do split allocations, some folks here in the forum do this very well. Unfortunate, because of my black & white style thinking, I don't tend to perform well with split allocations, (probably because it pulls me into too many directions). For now, the main objective is to re-gain some lost ground against the S&P 500 and eek out a 2-3% gain for the month. That Feb exit is really biting me in the azz, so I may need to stay invested for the month, in order to reset the IFT in & out play in April.

 

[FAB1]

I hear ya, there are times when I'm very convicted to do split allocations, some folks here in the forum do this very well. Unfortunate, because of my black & white style thinking, I don't tend to perform well with split allocations, (probably because it pulls me into too many directions). For now, the main objective is to re-gain some lost ground against the S&P 500 and eek out a 2-3% gain for the month. That Feb exit is really biting me in the azz, so I may need to stay invested for the month, in order to reset the IFT in & out play in April.

I need to steer clear of any more October-type downdrafts since I finally recovered those losses. I prefer to play "All In" but until the market starts making New Highs again I am hunkering down as the indexes get drawn-out in these extended rallies.

Doesn't sound like much but my March goal is to overtake the G fund (again) and stay above it.

C fund appears to be weaker but can the S & I keep on trucking to reach their 200 day emas?

Whatever will help you wont hurt me either. Hope you get to your March goal.

 

[JTH]

JTH-ESD, IFT Eob today, from 100S to 100F

From my weekend blog: "At this time I plan to follow the path, which means the system will IFT for 1-day into the F-Fund on Thur 10-Mar, then move into the C-Fund. This will lead into the best combo for April which starts in the C-Fund. "

 

[Whipsaw]

I know I'm probably mis-reading this chart, is this a 1 day stop in F? Or, a transition point until C shows some life?

 

[JTH]

I know I'm probably mis-reading this chart, is this a 1 day stop in F? Or, a transition point until C shows some life?

Great question, the projected path calls for a 1-day stop in the F-Fund. Having said this, I have additional filters which may keep me there a bit longer. There are no set rules here, it really will come down to a judgement call.

 

[JTH]

JTH, IFT EoB today, from 100S to 100C

Chasing the historical performance of the C-Fund for the remainder of the month. With no IFTs left, I'll do my best to stick it out and reset the IFT in & out setup for April.

 

[shitepoke]

JTH
first of all props to you as i think folks like you and Bquat put in EXTRA time that benefits the rest of us w/o being paid...secondly, pardon my ignorance but why did you jump in NOW to equities when charts look like top of downtrend (almost top i guess)...i am guessing short term bounce??

 

[Cactus]

Actually, Jason has been in equities since March 3. He simply reallocated it from S to C for the reason stated.

 

[JTH]

Actually, Jason has been in equities since March 3. He simply reallocated it from S to C for the reason stated.

JTH
first of all props to you as i think folks like you and Bquat put in EXTRA time that benefits the rest of us w/o being paid...secondly, pardon my ignorance but why did you jump in NOW to equities when charts look like top of downtrend (almost top i guess)...i am guessing short term bounce??

It may take a few days to equalize the recent gains, and allow the indictors to settle in, but once we break through the overhead resistance, we'll tag the 2040 overhead gap, from there I'll be looking for 2100.

 

[slayer72]

It may take a few days to equalize the recent gains, and allow the indictors to settle in, but once we break through the overhead resistance, we'll tag the 2040 overhead gap, from there I'll be looking for 2100.


With the ECB moves today boosting the US futures and devaluing the Euro do you think the I fund might be a player or a dog?

 

[JTH]

With the ECB moves today boosting the US futures and devaluing the Euro do you think the I fund might be a player or a dog?

As weird as it might sound, I don't have cable tv, nor watch the news much, so I'm really not tracking current events across the globe. I do watch the markets, but I haven’t tracked the I-Fund because it's very convoluted, where it isn't always easy to track 20+ countries and find a correlation with the dollar.