JTH's Account Talk

[FAB1]

Based on your current allocation 10/5/20/25 and noon prices....approx 1%...is that what you were looking for?

Yeah, I'll take 1% for sure.

what mathematical formulae did u use to reach ur hypotheziz?

 

[FAB1]

For any dog owners out there...

We lost our precious pup just about a month ago.

She died just a couple months shy of 18 yrs old!!

 

[jpcavin]

Yeah, I'll take 1% for sure.

what mathematical formulae did u use to reach ur hypotheziz?

Uhhh, the current rate x your current allocation...lol
AGG -.16% x .10
.INX 1.34% x .05
DWCPF 1.79% x .20
EFA 2.52% x .25

add it all up...yum :yumyum:

 

[jpcavin]

I realize it's not very scientific but it comes pretty close...unless the FV of the I fund stabs you in the back.

 

[Scout333]

The TSP Returns Calculator is easy to use and very helpful in keeping up with effects of IFT changes. Also, nice to use to look at monthly gains (losses), etc.

 

[Whipsaw]

For any dog owners out there...

We lost our precious pup just about a month ago.

She died just a couple months shy of 18 yrs old!!

FAB1, Sorry to hear about your pup, we had a Basset about that old when he passed. Not a good time. WS.

 

[JTH]

___
For myself, I’m currently in the C-Fund, up 1.28% MTD and down -3.79% YTD (still eating crow from the late March start)
It was an active week where all 3 systems IFT'd into the C-Fund, I'm banking on the large cap end of quarter rotation to outperform the small caps, we'll have to see how that decision plays out.

Trading the Stats:*Week 11

 

[FogSailing]

If we blow past 2135 for any reason, we are not where I think we are.....pilot to navigator...please recheck our coordinates..

View attachment 37547

FS

 

[JTH]

If we blow past 2135 for any reason, we are not where I think we are.....pilot to navigator...please recheck our coordinates..

SPX is at 2022, after having climbed 212 points in 20 days...and next month's April is the strongest month of the year...

 

[JTH]

Just checking in, I'm glad to see SPX is not taking the brunt of this recent pullback. We're still under healthy conditions with the 1980-2020/960-985 trading range still intact.

 

[JTH]

Good evening

The rest of this month is a bit difficult to survey, because I'm working extended hours and am unable to watch both the Pre-Markets and the Pre-IFT deadline.

In the weekly blog I wrote "My expectations for the S&P 500 are to tag the overhead 2040 gap, then re-test the descending trendline, but before we do that, we may need to flag down along the descending trendline, before heading higher. If we do break above and pass a test of the descending trendline, then I'll expect we'll be well-poised to break above the 2015 Nov highs, where we'll make a run from 2121-2222, before hitting the summer slump."

As of now, we are essentially flagging down along the trendline with a very tight 3-day trading range. This tells us buyers aren't willing to step in, and sellers aren't willing to step out. For the moment, I'll consider this a win, if you consider where we've been and where we are now, I think we've made substantial progress which so happens to align with my statistical interpretation of how I believe the markets should play out. Although I believe I will be right, I should tell you that if we close below 1980, then I will be wrong, and will re-adjust my 2121-2222 projection, based on how that data has played out.

 

[FAB1]

FAB1, Sorry to hear about your pup, we had a Basset about that old when he passed. Not a good time. WS.

Thanks! She was just on my mind at the time. : )

We are waiting a while, probably retirement until we get another pet but 100% sure it will be another Cairn Terrier, they are a little stubborn but good dogs we had two and just smart as a whip you'd think they understood English.

 

[FAB1]

Uhhh, the current rate x your current allocation...lol
AGG -.16% x .10
.INX 1.34% x .05
DWCPF 1.79% x .20
EFA 2.52% x .25

add it all up...yum :yumyum:

Thanks - no risk of me "looking" dumb - I am when it comes to math. Also my half-brother cant tell time or solve math problems so maybe stupid runs in the family.

but Im funnie!

 

[FAB1]

Good evening

 

[JTH]

Good evening

The rest of this month is a bit difficult to survey, because I'm working extended hours and am unable to watch both the Pre-Markets and the Pre-IFT deadline.

In the weekly blog I wrote "My expectations for the S&P 500 are to tag the overhead 2040 gap, then re-test the descending trendline, but before we do that, we may need to flag down along the descending trendline, before heading higher. If we do break above and pass a test of the descending trendline, then I'll expect we'll be well-poised to break above the 2015 Nov highs, where we'll make a run from 2121-2222, before hitting the summer slump."

As of now, we are essentially flagging down along the trendline with a very tight 3-day trading range. This tells us buyers aren't willing to step in, and sellers aren't willing to step out. For the moment, I'll consider this a win, if you consider where we've been and where we are now, I think we've made substantial progress which so happens to align with my statistical interpretation of how I believe the markets should play out. Although I believe I will be right, I should tell you that if we close below 1980, then I will be wrong, and will re-adjust my 2121-2222 projection, based on how that data has played out.

Gap filled...

 

[rspring]

I would have taken my gains off the table today if I had any IFT's left for this month! Da... limits.

 

[JTH]

I would have taken my gains off the table today if I had any IFT's left for this month! Da... limits.

Thanks for staying in, keep strong brother, I'm looking for 2065 as the next price objective, we still have a peak ahead of us.

 

[rspring]

Thanks for staying in, keep strong brother, I'm looking for 2065 as the next price objective, we still have a peak ahead of us.

If we make it to 2065 I will have made back the 10% that I lost earlier this year. You have been spot on with your charts and helped many of us on the Forum make $$ who have listened and used your work to help make their investing decisions. Thanks and Please keep up the good work.

 

[Whipsaw]

I would have taken my gains off the table today if I had any IFT's left for this month! Da... limits.

You do know you can always IFT to the G fund... as many times with any increment you want. Better to be in at the moment.

 

[JTH]

If we make it to 2065 I will have made back the 10% that I lost earlier this year. You have been spot on with your charts and helped many of us on the Forum make $$ who have listened and used your work to help make their investing decisions. Thanks and Please keep up the good work.

Thank you for mentioning that, it's very hard not to gloat when I'm right (and so much easier to dismiss the times when I'm wrong). I do not like to make bold projections, but every now and then I'm compelled to put myself out there and make risky calls. Eventually it will bite me in the azz...