JTH's Account Talk

[JTH]

I have to wonder, what are the odds that SPX, TRAN, & NDX would all close down today at -.81% ???

 

[Cactus]

So much for being diversified. :cheesy:

 

[FAB1]

I have to wonder, what are the odds that SPX, TRAN, & NDX would all close down today at -.81% ???

View attachment 37342View attachment 37344View attachment 37345

Five Gazillion to One.

And it also means look out Above. SPX heading to 2025 in short order.

I am hopping this train by Twelve O' Clock Noon - WHOOOOO WHOOOO!

 

[JTH]

Just got home, so have some catching up to do.

ALPAFS's TRAN flips over to a buy, with a Triple Top Breakout. This means SPX/W4500/TRAN/NDX all have bullish price objectives.

 

[JTH]

Didn't have time to do a Monthly report, here's the left overs from this weekend's Trading the Stats:*Week 9.

 

[JTH]

Watching for an inverted fork, it's one of my favorite patterns. If today's candlestick closes with a topping tail, then it can be a reversal pattern (not good)

 

[JTH]

I've thought about it, I just can't jump in under these conditions, both for myself and ALPAFS. I don't like to chase at a top, especially without an extra IFT to get me back into the markets at a later point in the month.

Best, to those that jump in today.

 

[JTH]

Report card time for the Month of February.

I, had a rough start, a great middle and a safe finish, it was a respectable top 20 performance. 6 Days spent in the C fund, with 14 spent in the G-Fund (30% of the time invested)

ESD had a top 100 performance, 12 days in the C-Fund, 5 in the G-Fund, 3 in the S-Fund (75% of the time invested)

ALPAFS had a top 200 performance, 9 days in the C-Fund, 11 in the G-Fund (45% of the time invested)

 

[FAB1]

I've thought about it, I just can't jump in under these conditions, both for myself and ALPAFS. I don't like to chase at a top, especially without an extra IFT to get me back into the markets at a later point in the month.

Best, to those that jump in today.

Anyone else beside FAB1 miss-out on Thousands of Dollars today??

elcrapo.

Just hoping Asia/ Europe chase that and US chases their tail for a couple of more days...

 

[FAB1]

Watching for an inverted fork, it's one of my favorite patterns. If today's candlestick closes with a topping tail, then it can be a reversal pattern (not good)

View attachment 37372

No it didnt. Flat top Candle.

Now tell me its going to the top - there around 2080.

And set my troubled mind at ease lol.

 

[Cactus]

Anyone else beside FAB1 miss-out on Thousands of Dollars today?? elcrapo. Just hoping Asia/ Europe chase that and US chases their tail for a couple of more days...

Yeah, I did. But then that's the story of my life. Well, at least since the year 2000 when I diversified out of 100% G Fund. It's been 16 years now and I'm still looking up at the G Fund. I guess I'll never learn. Anyways, don't look at my returns this year. Instead check out CRAP (my contrarian indicator) or the LMBF-1 systems. They are doing much better this year and are even positive.

 

[FAB1]

Yeah, I did. But then that's the story of my life. Well, at least since the year 2000 when I diversified out of 100% G Fund. It's been 16 years now and I'm still looking up at the G Fund. I guess I'll never learn. Anyways, don't look at my returns this year. Instead check out CRAP (my contrarian indicator) or the LMBF-1 systems. They are doing much better this year and are even positive.

In Year 2000 you could make over 6% a year in the Gee Fund.

I am not too far from whipping the Gee Fund. And I dont plan on looking DOWN when I get above it, lol.

 

[JTH]

Anyone else beside FAB1 miss-out on Thousands of Dollars today??

elcrapo.

Just hoping Asia/ Europe chase that and US chases their tail for a couple of more days...

This was the largest 1st-day-of-March gain (going back to 1950)

 

[airlift]

JTH,

Some time ago you discussed a study of TNA in which you concluded that TNA showed better performance than other ETFs. Can you please help in understanding what possible causes are influencing the better performance these days of TNA over UPRO? I can only assume that the rising price of crude oil, rising liquidity, and breadth are allowing investors/traders to assume more risk in small caps than in large caps. Am I overlooking other important causes or factors? Tia.

 

[JTH]

JTH,

Some time ago you discussed a study of TNA in which you concluded that TNA showed better performance than other ETFs. Can you please help in understanding what possible causes are influencing the better performance these days of TNA over UPRO? I can only assume that the rising price of crude oil, rising liquidity, and breadth are allowing investors/traders to assume more risk in small caps than in large caps. Am I overlooking other important causes or factors? Tia.

Hi Airlift

You give me too much credit, I have no clue how these leveraged ETFs are weighted, I just know their creators are making money off us, otherwise they wouldn't do it. From the previous perspective you're referring too, I just measure the price performance over a chosen timeframe, and make a decision based on that timeframe.

In the case below, TNA is winning over the past month, but losing over the past two months.

 

[JTH]

Who's gonna IFT today?

 

[rktect1]

Who's gonna IFT today?

In or out?

I am currently in F fund and not moving into C, S or I.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

I was seriously thinking about it. But I am going to wait on the jobs report tomorrow. Would like to see a small pull back... price is in the 10 day EMA upward channel and its all looking good; except that Slow Stochastic is so high... would expects a small drop before price resumes the upward movement. :smile:

Looking more at entry Monday, since they seem to always be ugly down days. Got lucky earlier this week with entry on Monday and exit on Tuesday. Still being conservative... not entering but 50% at most while we are still in a downtrend. But must admit this move up is a monster!!!!

Best Wishes to You and Everyone on Your Investments!!!!!!!!!!! :smile:

 

[JTH]

IFT EoB today, from 100G to 100S

At this time, I believe we are gearing up for a 6-8% March, and there may not be another opportunity to jump in.

Looking at the charts does not make me want to jump in, but much of my statistical data (in various forms, some not posted) leads me to belive I won't be able to out-time the markets.

 

[rspring]

IFT EoB today, from 100G to 100S

At this time, I believe we are gearing up for a 6-8% March, and there may not be another opportunity to jump in.

Looking at the charts does not make me want to jump in, but much of my statistical data (in various forms, some not posted) leads me to belive I won't be able to out-time the markets.

I like your call, 6-8% would put me back in positive territory for the year.