JTH's Account Talk

[JTH]

ALPAFS moves back into the markets

S&P 500 & NASDAQ 100 are leading, Transports flipped back to bullish with a Double Top Breakout.

 

[JTH]

S&P 500 triggers an Ascending Triple Top Breakout, the BC wave now spans 9%

 

[OBXTrader]

I moved from L2020 to L Income yesterday. Keep a toe in the water until November 1, but like to ring the cash register on big up days (too much too fast). If I had the guts this year to do my moves in and out of the C Fund instead of the lower L funds, would have paid off handsomely on dates selected. Same as last year (partial year in standings). Conservatism is what conservatism is......no risk, no reward. The TSP is a modest slice in my retirement portfolio and since 2010, these are all the chips I have to play with.

Is it me or is the tracker not updated? I should be a full 1% higher.

Well, I tried to help...look out above. It's sometimes tough to get tomorrow's prices today or was it yesterday's price? How about that VIX crush?

 

[JTH]

Well OBX

At this point it looks to be inevitable that the S&P 500 & NASDAQ 100 will make a run for their 52-week highs. The Transport's wave C has met its wave A, the the Wilshire 4500 is compressing into an Ascending Triangle.

 

[JTH]

Very late to the party, but this was already the time I planned on going in.

IFT EoB Today, 23 Oct 2015, From 100G to 100C

 

[JTH]

Not often you see the NASDAQ 100 gap up above the upper Bollinger Band...

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Very late to the party, but this was already the time I planned on going in.

IFT EoB Today, 23 Oct 2015, From 100G to 100C

wishing you the best!!! . Hope it goes up, up. Andaway!!

 

[JTH]

wishing you the best!!! . Hope it goes up, up. Andaway!!

Thanks, "Hope" is what kept me out of the markets for too long...

 

[OBXTrader]

You and I hit the submit at the same time on the auto-tracker. I went to G Fund. More so because as this market goes up, I am moving more winnings off the table. Will do the same in other accounts as market dictates, but most likely until on or about November 6th when I will go 100% cash again.

I like to pull first from the accounts that have "stable value" funds, because I am earning better interest than my brokerage account as I sit patiently and wait for the next opportunity.

This time I only have to wait 5 trading days to get back in should I choose.

Thanks, "Hope" is what kept me out of the markets for too long...

 

[JTH]

For this week, there are more charts covering the S&P 500, Wilshire 4500, and AGG. I've also added more data (meaning longer timeframes.

Trading the Stats: Week 43

 

[JTH]

Regardless of the appearance of carnage among some of the indexes, ALPAFS is still on a full buy.

Here's something you don't see everyday, the Wilshire 4500 triggered an official Spread Triple Top Breakout. The index has broken above the 18-days of consolidation.

 

[JTH]

In my latest blog, I examine the best 6-Months of the year

Trading the Stats: NOVEMBER

 

[FAB1]

I see a pattern on these Fed minutes meeting days they start out unusually optimistic, level off and go BOOM at meeting time, sometimes partial recover the gains, sometimes not.

Can u say Pump n Dump??

 

[JTH]

I see a pattern on these Fed minutes meeting days they start out unusually optimistic, level off and go BOOM at meeting time, sometimes partial recover the gains, sometimes not.

Can u say Pump n Dump??

NASDAQ 100 is less than .50% from making new 52-week highs, the other indexes will follow, this is the best time of year to make money

 

[JTH]

For those of you who still have 1 IFT left...

For the S&P 500, the 1st 3 days of November have a 66% winning ratio with .76% average returns

For the Wilshire 4500, the 1st 3 days of November have a 71% winning ratio with .66% average returns

 

[FogSailing]

Thank you JTH!

Sent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk

 

[OBXTrader]

Big October gains, weird divergences yesterday and sell trigger at the close today might affect first trading days in November. I delayed selling yesterday and today I trust Monday is a gap down, then up day. I was inclined to support your earlier position of a crash and burn and you pick up the ashes scenario but believed it was just too soon to do that given momentum.

As mentioned in my post just below on the 23rd, moved slowly into cash as this October move up became more extended where I could move into stable value funds paying interest. My charts show this as bearish wedge, but still hanging with 1/3 cash and 2/3 equities/bonds. Not bearish given my positions, but cautious.

For those of you who still have 1 IFT left...

For the S&P 500, the 1st 3 days of November have a 66% winning ratio with .76% average returns

For the Wilshire 4500, the 1st 3 days of November have a 71% winning ratio with .66% average returns

View attachment 35745

 

[JTH]

Big October gains, weird divergences yesterday and sell trigger at the close today might affect first trading days in November. I delayed selling yesterday and today I trust Monday is a gap down, then up day. I was inclined to support your earlier position of a crash and burn and you pick up the ashes scenario but believed it was just too soon to do that given momentum.

This has been a big year for divergences, so much so that I'm at the point where I only care what fund I'm in and if it's making money. The pullback everyone has been calling for has yet to materialize, I made 3.85% this month and still managed to vastly under-perform the majority on the monthly tracker.

I still contend this is the best time of year to be invested.

Trading the Stats:***Week 44

 

[airlift]

This has been a big year for divergences, so much so that I'm at the point where I only care what fund I'm in and if it's making money. The pullback everyone has been calling for has yet to materialize, I made 3.85% this month and still managed to vastly under-perform the majority on the monthly tracker.

I still contend this is the best time of year to be invested.

Trading the Stats:***Week 44[/QUOTE

JTH,

Can you please explain the fundamental reasons why small caps should now do better than large caps or the SPX going forward? I will appreciate your help in clarifying this. In addition to valuation, and the relative strength of the dollar, what other factors favor weighing more toward small caps than large caps? Tia.

 

[JTH]

This has been a big year for divergences, so much so that I'm at the point where I only care what fund I'm in and if it's making money. The pullback everyone has been calling for has yet to materialize, I made 3.85% this month and still managed to vastly under-perform the majority on the monthly tracker.

I still contend this is the best time of year to be invested.

Trading the Stats:***Week 44[/QUOTE

JTH,

Can you please explain the fundamental reasons why small caps should now do better than large caps or the SPX going forward? I will appreciate your help in clarifying this. In addition to valuation, and the relative strength of the dollar, what other factors favor weighing more toward small caps than large caps? Tia.

Hi Airlift

I've never said I expect the small caps to do better going forward. I did say in my blog that I expect that to happen next year, mostly due to the under performance of investors and the fact most hedge funds are going to dress their portfolios at the end of the year.

Statistically speaking, small caps outperform large caps in the 3rd quarter. At some point in time a rotation will take place, but until it does, I'm inclined to follow the current trend until it is broken.