JTH's Account Talk

[JTH]

Re: PRE VS. POST IFT

Good morning

Futures have been positive throughout the night, if this continues during the trading session, this will setup the indexes to establish another higher low, thus priming the pump for a breakout above the previous swing high at A.

 

[JTH]

Re: 4th QUARTER

While the S&P 500 has created spread double top within the yellow box, the other indexes have not reached those comparative levels.

Futures have been positive throughout the night, if this continues during the trading session, this will setup the indexes to establish another higher low, thus priming the pump for a breakout above the previous swing high at A.

On the 3rd attempt, the S&P 500 breaches 2018. This gives us a minor Double Top Breakout, a Spread Triple Top Breakout, and wave C has now overtaken Wave A. If wave C does not gain more ground (instead creating another column of Os) then it will trigger a PnF Bull Trap.

For comparison, I've attached the other indexes, where we can see wave C across W4500/Tran/NDX's has not yet reached wave A.

All indexes have higher high/lows...

 

[Bquat]

Re: 4th QUARTER

I'm so glad to C U actively back: Like

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Re: 4th QUARTER

Hi JTH, Thank you for the charts. I need to learn more about PnF charts. But you presentation showing the waves definitely helps! Double Breakout and higher low sounds good too! :smile:
Also glad to see you back!

 

[JTH]

Thanks BQ/DBA

It's been good to step away from the markets for a much needed break! Now that we are in the final stretch of 2015, it's time to make up for lost gains, seeking to finish the year in the black.

The movers pickup my stuff, my monitors are gone and it feels like I'm "roughing it" with this small laptop

Luckily, finished rebuilding the stats, so the hard work is behind me. :smile:

 

[JTH]

Re: 4th QUARTER

Today the S&P 500 closed at 1.49%

For the S&P 500, going back to 1950, over the past 3,326 Thursdays, 123 closed between 1.25% and 1.75%

The following day (not always a Friday) has a 60% winning ratio with .16% average gains.

As a comparison, the past 3,305 Fridays have a 54% winning ratio with .07% average gains.

 

[JTH]

Re: 4th QUARTER

Markets pulling in 2 different directions...

 

[JTH]

Re: 4th QUARTER

Markets pulling in 2 different directions...

One day I will get to the point where I can statistically compare multiple indexes side-by-side and give a comparative analysis on their expected performance.

Until then, I'll focus on the primary index, the S&P 500

Trading the Stats: Week 42

 

[OBXTrader]

JTH - We are sitting in the United Club Lounge at Narita ready to head home. Thought would check out your account talk over a glass of wine.

Can I surmise there is not enough upside to pull you in? Not enough reason yet to pull me out of 2020.

Based on flight to G fund since I was gone and Mad Money Cramer I would have expected to do better. I read the technicals we are at extremes of those betting against these levels.

 

[JTH]

JCan I surmise there is not enough upside to pull you in? Not enough reason yet to pull me out of 2020.

This month, I've locked in 3.58%, I want a lower entry than the last exit and I'm willing to wait for it.

Large Caps & Tech are leading, while Mid Caps, Small Caps, and the Transports are lagging, I have issues with that.

Transports triggered a Double Bottom Breakdown and now have a lower high/low.

 

[OBXTrader]

Thanks Jason. We are back stateside now. I will keep a close eye on this week whether to increase my position or reduce this week.

Your seasonal JTH ESD is still tracking in line with my metrics for the market despite the noise out there. I am paying less attention to the price I want versus the price target because since May 2010, I can't add to my TSP.

This month, I've locked in 3.58%, I want a lower entry than the last exit and I'm willing to wait for it.

Large Caps & Tech are leading, while Mid Caps, Small Caps, and the Transports are lagging, I have issues with that.

Transports triggered a Double Bottom Breakdown and now have a lower high/low.

View attachment 35625
View attachment 35626

 

[JTH]

Thanks Jason. We are back stateside now. I will keep a close eye on this week whether to increase my position or reduce this week.

Your seasonal JTH ESD is still tracking in line with my metrics for the market despite the noise out there. I am paying less attention to the price I want versus the price target because since May 2010, I can't add to my TSP.

Thanks Jeff

I'm still looking for ways to tweak the Evolving Statistical Data, the system was offline the past few months, I went and back-tested those missing months, and the system's performance was dismal. I could chalk it up to an off year, but there are almost 200,000 data points used, so I expect better performance. As of now, the system is beta, and I still have some ideas I've yet to implement.

 

[JTH]

Re: 4th QUARTER

 

[OBXTrader]

Jason - The Transports, Mid and Small Caps are leading the way up from morning lows. That's what we both wanted to see, we'll see if it holds. Nice change for a change.

Thanks Jeff

I'm still looking for ways to tweak the Evolving Statistical Data, the system was offline the past few months, I went and back-tested those missing months, and the system's performance was dismal. I could chalk it up to an off year, but there are almost 200,000 data points used, so I expect better performance. As of now, the system is beta, and I still have some ideas I've yet to implement.

 

[JTH]

Jason - The Transports, Mid and Small Caps are leading the way up from morning lows. That's what we both wanted to see, we'll see if it holds. Nice change for a change.

Well actually, I want to see the markets crash and burn, so I can then scoop up the devestation, but that's just me

NASDAQ 100's wave C has met wave A

 

[JTH]

NASDAQ 100's wave C has met wave A

Update: NASDAQ 100's wave C has overtaken wave A

 

[OBXTrader]

Well, I tried to help...look out above. It's sometimes tough to get tomorrow's prices today or was it yesterday's price? How about that VIX crush?

Well actually, I want to see the markets crash and burn, so I can then scoop up the devestation, but that's just me

NASDAQ 100's wave C has met wave A


View attachment 35638
View attachment 35639

 

[JTH]

Re: 4th QUARTER

Such a thin rally...

 

[JTH]

Not much to report, the markets have been on a thin rally, I'd guess we are either consolidating, or rounding a top.

For myself I'm steadfast on the sidelines, patience like a Jedi

W4500 has created a minor Double Top

 

[JTH]

This week covers trading days 13-17

Today is the 15th trading day of October, over the past 11 years, trading days 15-18 show weak average gains, with the negative average gains significantly higher than the positive average gains.

Much of this is attributed to October 2008, where week 42 lost -6.78%