JTH's Account Talk

[MrJohnRoss]

It is still a tradable range until the 1988 level breaks. I took an entry this morning in SPXL at 79.51 and will manage the trade as effectively as possible.

Well done.

 

[JTH]

It is still a tradable range until the 1988 level breaks. I took an entry this morning in SPXL at 79.51 and will manage the trade as effectively as possible.

Well done.

Thanks for reminding me, it's been a busy day, too busy remember I bought it, so I just placed a stop at 82.50 I expect it will get triggered easily, but that's ok.

Scratch that, the order triggered before the close, so I'm out at 82.50

View attachment 32224

 

[airlift]

It is still a tradable range until the 1988 level breaks. I took an entry this morning in SPXL at 79.51 and will manage the trade as effectively as possible.

JTH, congratulations for your excellent trade with SPXL today! Some months ago, I think, you posted the excellent summary of a detailed study you had carried out with TNA/TZA. Please help me understand why you chose to trade SPXL over TNA, if both are 3x leveraged ETFs. Today TNA showed better gains than SPXL, and some analysts believe that going forward small caps should perform better than large caps. Was your decision guided more by the possibility of avoiding bigger losses in case further downside in the markets? Tia.

 

[jpcavin]

Good play on that SPXL.

 

[JTH]

JTH, congratulations for your excellent trade with SPXL today! Some months ago, I think, you posted the excellent summary of a detailed study you had carried out with TNA/TZA. Please help me understand why you chose to trade SPXL over TNA, if both are 3x leveraged ETFs. Today TNA showed better gains than SPXL, and some analysts believe that going forward small caps should perform better than large caps. Was your decision guided more by the possibility of avoiding bigger losses in case further downside in the markets? Tia.

Thank you my friend, I always enjoy your questions because it opens up my perspective and brings my thoughts into the open, that makes me a better trader.

Here is the part where the forum gets to laugh at me, I made .04 cents on that trade for a .01% profit.

Here's the thing, I'm really not trading right now, what I am doing is lowering my cost basis per share. Right now, with USAA, it cost me $8.95 to get in and another $8.95 to get out, this is for the first 25 trades within 90 days. Once I exceed 25 trades in 90 days, the trading cost go down to $4.95 to go in and another $4.95 to get out. Currently, I need 10 more trades. I realize USAA is not the best trading platform to use, but this is where all my banking is done and I am not what we should call a "serious" trader, I am a novice and student who is evolving my craft. There will be a time when I plan on doing this full-time, but right now, my primary focus is on my family and my Airman.

Today, I bought 6 shares at 79.51, with the $17.90 trading cost, the cost basis was $82.49 meaning that from the start of the trade I was already -3.62% in the hole. That means for $500 dollar risk, I lose roughly -3.5% from the start. Once I get the share cost down to $4.95, then the cost basis starts with a -2% loss with $500 of risk. From there, if I double the trade to 1K it's -1%, 2K is -.5%.

It may not seem logical to others, but until I get the cost basis down, I'm taking "high probability/tight stop" trades and in the process am willing to take a small loss with small risk, until the trading cost are reduced.

To answer the SPXL vs. TNA question, it can easily be argued that TNA is the better choice, here are some reasons I chose SPXL.

• Seasonally speaking, I calculated large caps tend to perform better in the month of January, in the last 2 days
• SPX had a quad bottom, I felt that was the better opportunity at the moment when I decided to make a trade.
• I've traded SPXL/SPXS 4 times this month, TNA once, so I feel I know the large cap price action better, I like to trade what I know.
• My previous exit with SPXL was at 85.66 & 85.70 I always enjoy taking previous profit and applying it to the next trade at a lower price.
• With PnF, I calculate 2 to 1 odds TNA's the better performer, but with that comes additional risk which doesn't match my short-term goal of reducing cost basis.

 

[kave]

Good play on that SPXL.

Jason, I'll echo JP on ya trade man! Congrats!! I love it when we can pick up some cerveza $$.

I always drink beer and usually it's BOOO-LIGHT!!!

Have a great weekend

 

[airlift]

Thank you my friend, I always enjoy your questions because it opens up my perspective and brings my thoughts into the open, that makes me a better trader.

Here is the part where the forum gets to laugh at me, I made .04 cents on that trade for a .01% profit.

Here's the thing, I'm really not trading right now, what I am doing is lowering my cost basis per share. Right now, with USAA, it cost me $8.95 to get in and another $8.95 to get out, this is for the first 25 trades within 90 days. Once I exceed 25 trades in 90 days, the trading cost go down to $4.95 to go in and another $4.95 to get out. Currently, I need 10 more trades. I realize USAA is not the best trading platform to use, but this is where all my banking is done and I am not what we should call a "serious" trader, I am a novice and student who is evolving my craft. There will be a time when I plan on doing this full-time, but right now, my primary focus is on my family and my Airman.

Today, I bought 6 shares at 79.51, with the $17.90 trading cost, the cost basis was $82.49 meaning that from the start of the trade I was already -3.62% in the hole. That means for $500 dollar risk, I lose roughly -3.5% from the start. Once I get the share cost down to $4.95, then the cost basis starts with a -2% loss with $500 of risk. From there, if I double the trade to 1K it's -1%, 2K is -.5%.

It may not seem logical to others, but until I get the cost basis down, I'm taking "high probability/tight stop" trades and in the process am willing to take a small loss with small risk, until the trading cost are reduced.

To answer the SPXL vs. TNA question, it can easily be argued that TNA is the better choice, here are some reasons I chose SPXL.

• Seasonally speaking, I calculated large caps tend to perform better in the month of January, in the last 2 days
• SPX had a quad bottom, I felt that was the better opportunity at the moment when I decided to make a trade.
• I've traded SPXL/SPXS 4 times this month, TNA once, so I feel I know the large cap price action better, I like to trade what I know.
• My previous exit with SPXL was at 85.66 & 85.70 I always enjoy taking previous profit and applying it to the next trade at a lower price.
• With PnF, I calculate 2 to 1 odds TNA's the better performer, but with that comes additional risk which doesn't match my short-term goal of reducing cost basis.

JTH,

I don't have anything to add that you have not already addressed in this excellent response. Thank you!!!

 

[JTH]

Good night!

Misc: Breaking Even

 

[rktect1]

You bought six shares of an $80 stock and paid $18 for the trade in and out?

dude! You cant win with that.

i bought PG today for around $85. 150 shares. I paid $2 for the trade which is almost insignificant in my scenario. Im hoping PG jumps to $90 so i can pay my $2 to sell off for $750 gain.

 

[alevin]

You bought six shares of an $80 stock and paid $18 for the trade in and out?

dude! You cant win with that.

i bought PG today for around $85. 150 shares. I paid $2 for the trade which is almost insignificant in my scenario. Im hoping PG jumps to $90 so i can pay my $2 to sell off for $750 gain.

OK, I have to ask. who are you paying the $2 to? what outfit?

 

[konakathy]

OK, I have to ask. who are you paying the $2 to? what outfit?

Yeah! Really! And how much do you have to have in your brokerage account to pay those cheap fees? :worried:

 

[WorkFE]

what outfit?

Las Vegas, but even then the parking is more than $2.

 

[rktect1]

Yesterday we appeared to get a few nail pops. But i think today mr hammer will come back to bang them back down.

this month has been aweful for any timing strategies. One day i wish i was in then the next day i am glad im not in.

 

[rktect1]

OK, I have to ask. who are you paying the $2 to? what outfit?

Vanguard. But i have a few dollars invested with them.

http://www.vanguard.com/pdf/v414.pdf

 

[JTH]

I don't take positions bigger then 2% of my account, for me to drop 13K on a trade I would need to have 637,500.00 If I had that kind if money, I wouldn't be hanging out here, I'd be doing this full time.

 

[rktect1]

I feel like people are getting a little riled up here and that is not my intention.

My point is that if you buy six shares of an $80 stock and pay $16 for the trade then the $480 investment has to work pretty damn hard to post a true gain. That will be some really tired money in need of a well deserved break.

That was my only point here. Sorry if I ruffled some feathers.

As an aside. I have a day job. I will always have it until I retire because I'm clearly not smart enough and intuitive enough about the market to make an actual living off of it. I'm hear to listen to those people who do understand investing, specifically as related to my limited ift tsp account. When I don't listen to those people I end up with a year like 2014. Well not usually that bad.

Also, I bought 150 shares of PG. It is now down $1 a share. So I am out $154 right now. Your horse is winning. :nuts:

 

[JTH]

___
IFT EoB Today for a 2-day C-Fund play, then back into the S-Fund

It's a short-term calculated risk, if I didn't have an extra IFT, I wouldn't do it, and that is why I will not start off February in the S-fund.

Thus far (considering the market conditions) I'm doing very well by outperforming the G/C funds and matching the S-Fund. I do lag behind the F-Fund and that's ok, as for the I-Fund, I don't compare myself against it, if I do well in C&S, then I've met my primary objectives.

IFT EoB today, 100S

 

[JTH]

NP, Yes, you are correct, to make a trade like that I don't need to be right, I must to be really right. The key point here, I'm not trying to make money right now, if I was, then I would have added more risk.

 

[JTH]

What a rubber-neck of a week!

 

[JTH]

___
IFT EoB Today for a 2-day C-Fund play, then back into the S-Fund

It's a short-term calculated risk, if I didn't have an extra IFT, I wouldn't do it, and that is why I will not start off February in the C-fund.

IFT EoB today, 100S

While it wasn't a great month for many, it was an outstanding month for a few. As one of our forum elders likes to say "It's Report Card Time."

The end of month 2-day stint in the C-Fund did little to increase my performance for the month, but over each of those 2 days, the C-Fund did outperform the S-Fund, thus this specific objective was achieved.

Given the volatility, finishing out the month with -1.57% was no surprise, I calculated I should stay invested the majority of the month (which I did) and that calculation did not yield the desired results, but it did yield the desired outcome in the fact I am outperforming the C-Fund by 1.43% and the S-Fund by .28%

Trading the Stats: January's Review