JTH's Account Talk

[WorkFE]

I check on a small handful of indicators about once a week or so.

In other words, he watches for his Av to change colors. :toung:

 

[JTH]

In other words, he watches for his Av to change colors. :toung:

I do wish it were that easy

 

[James48843]

When I see his avatar change from red to blue, its a secret sign.

 

[JTH]

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Plop, plop, fizz, fizz, oh what a relief it is...

Both the S&P 500 & NASDAQ 100 flipped back over to a buy signal today, with each triggering a Double Top Breakout. The Wilshire 4500 needs to gain another .29% until if flips over to a buy signal.

View attachment 32303

Note: I've removed the trend strength indicator, it was not providing me enough value.

 

[rktect1]

Everybody needs to jump into this pool so i can get out.

 

[jkenjohnson]

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Plop, plop, fizz, fizz, oh what a relief it is...

Both the S&P 500 & NASDAQ 100 flipped back over to a buy signal today, with each triggering a Double Top Breakout. The Wilshire 4500 needs to gain another .29% until if flips over to a buy signal.

View attachment 32303

Note: I've removed the trend strength indicator, it was not providing me enough value.

Thanks for the charts Jason. You do a lot of work every day on these.

 

[JTH]

Thanks for the charts Jason. You do a lot of work every day on these.

You're welcome, some days are worse than others, with all this up/down price action, I've been spending more time with analysis than usual, so I've had to cut back on the usual post-whorin :1244:

 

[felixthecat]

Great chart JTH. Overall, the momentum is up. The seasonality chart shows we will be entering a choppy period through next week...especially if oil does not behave. Near term couple of days looks like consolidation of the big gains. Time to digest some with a pullback. However, looks like we could go higher here next week. Then...might jump back to F Fund if it has had time to form another good entry point. I fund still looks good and will probably break away from the 200 day moving average next week. I would give the I Fund the edge here...but I believe C/S will do just fine on their own next week.

I wish I had more moves...so will likely ride out this bump down to hopefully get the gains next week. Then move to the F Fund to finish out the month. It is a plan...through next week. Hopefully, we don't run down the ladder again. In any respect, I will be saying this ;swear if I'm wrong or doing if I'm right.

 

[JTH]

Great chart JTH. Overall, the momentum is up. The seasonality chart shows we will be entering a choppy period through next week...especially if oil does not behave. Near term couple of days looks like consolidation of the big gains. Time to digest some with a pullback. However, looks like we could go higher here next week. Then...might jump back to F Fund if it has had time to form another good entry point. I fund still looks good and will probably break away from the 200 day moving average next week. I would give the I Fund the edge here...but I believe C/S will do just fine on their own next week.

I wish I had more moves...so will likely ride out this bump down to hopefully get the gains next week. Then move to the F Fund to finish out the month. It is a plan...through next week. Hopefully, we don't run down the ladder again. In any respect, I will be saying this ;swear if I'm wrong or doing if I'm right.

Agreed, it is increasingly difficult to use 2 IFTs under these volatile conditions. If we're out of the markets for the month too early, then we risk losing out on substantial gains, conversely if we stay in too long during a downwave, then we may not recover from the damage. Right now, these are ideal conditions for scalping and that’s something I've had great success with in the past when trading 2 IFTs within a month. But that success did not translate well for me over the course of a year, due to being left out of some of the bigger moves.

This year, I'm more focused on staying invested and seeking to gain edges over the FCS funds. It won't win me any coffee cups or Auto Tracker glory, but it will serve me better in the long haul.

AGG triggers a Bearish Signal Reversed (essentially a Double Top Breakdown that breaks the previous uptrend)


View attachment 32306

 

[JTH]

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This does not meet the technical specifications of a Head & Shoulders formation, but it does resolve the 1905 gap.

View attachment 32309

 

[Khotso]

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This does not meet the technical specifications of a Head & Shoulders formation, but it does resolve the 1905 gap.

View attachment 32309

Uh-oh! Well, let's hope you're wrong for once (Uh-oh, that doesn't bode well)!

 

[Nordic]

Uh-oh! Well, let's hope you're wrong for once (Uh-oh, that doesn't bode well)!

Dang, yeah that could be an important development there JTH, nice catch.

 

[GUCHI]

Uh-oh! Well, let's hope you're wrong for once (Uh-oh, that doesn't bode well)!

Whatttttt.... Hush yo mouth:laugh:

 

[kave]

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This does not meet the technical specifications of a Head & Shoulders formation, but it does resolve the 1905 gap.

View attachment 32309

I knew that sucker was back there lurking! I will be quick to execute back to G if I smell that Gap getting reasonably close!!

 

[Cactus]

Ouch, that would be almost a 7.5% drop from here.

 

[JTH]

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AGG falls below the channel, then stretches back up to test it. With stocks, a re-test of getting back into the trendline is typically where I expect to see a failed test, but with Bonds, they tend to have their own set of patterns, so I'm not certain of what the outcome will be.

Based on where we closed at 3:00 today, I expect the F-Fund to close slightly down to flat. Anyone who got into the F-Fund today, should have an extra .10% gain on top of tomorrow's returns, meaning, they may have timed the IFT "perfectly"

View attachment 32315

 

[JTH]

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This my friends is not the type of price action you want to see on a 5-min chart. WIthin the last 30 minutes, we made a higher high followed by a lower low.

View attachment 32316

 

[JTH]

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SPX

• When price tags 2033.1 we will begin a new series of Os
• While each of the indexes has it's own box with a confined price range, (of the indexes I track) SPX box Y1 is the most clearly defined
• The quintuple breakdown was significant, but didn't lead to continued selling, instead we experienced was a flush in volume where we appeared to exhaust sellers
• At this point, the breach of 1988 proved to either be insignificant, or an early warning that we will re-test 1974, thus 1974 is the new key level I'll watch
• There were spikes in volume today coinciding with the session's highs, this leads me to believe we may be headed back down to retest the lows
• If the lows get retested, I am not optimistic we will survive the outcome unscathed
• Lastly, some of my analysis projected starting the month in the S-Fund, with an IFT to the F-Fund tomorrow, then another IFT to the S-Fund on 25 Feb. I'll post the outcome of this projection at the end of the month

View attachment 32317
View attachment 32319

 

[MrJohnRoss]

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This my friends is not the type of price action you want to see on a 5-min chart. WIthin the last 30 minutes, we made a higher high followed by a lower low.

View attachment 32316

Agreed. It was a horrible close. Not a good sign.

 

[Geaux4it]

Agreed. It was a horrible close. Not a good sign.

And yet futures are up over 1%. Up in the face of oil going down and a future run on Greek banks..

I'm in the G-Fund watching from the cheap seats

-Geaux