JTH's Account Talk

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Whipsaw said:
Latest move since I looked are bullish... the days prior have more moves to G/F... maybe I'm seeing things?
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No there was some selling into the dip and some buying the bounce of people thinking this dip will be bought.
 
The heroes already made their gains for this month, they played it very well, while I played it conservatively (no risk no gains.)

IFT EoB today 100S
 
JTH said:
The heroes already made their gains for this month, they played it very well, while I played it conservatively (no risk no gains.)

IFT EoB today 100S
Click to expand...
You go boy! I'll have to wait and see.:suspicious:
 
JTH said:
No, I don't mind at all, that's a pretty chart, I'm wondering if you are using log-scaling, I know it's a funny question to ask, but when I put your chart side-by-side with mine, something seems off and I couldn't pinpoint it (perhaps it's the taco I ate.) I don't tend to spout much of my incites on the I-Fund because it's difficult enough just to track the American indexes. Here are some observations I made over the weekend.

1) On Thursday, EFA both opened and closed above the upper Bollinger Band, since this event, this ETF has out in 3 lower highs & lows with downward momentum escalating.

2) On Thursday, I had a buy signal trigger on the dollar while at the same time a sell signal triggering on gold.

3) As a side note, I have some mixed data on the internals for EFA, this is something I don't see very often, so I'm not sure how to properly process it.

4) Long story short, for both EFA and the Dollar, a line in the sand has been drawn at these levels. IMHO, if they can't hold their ground, then I see potential for a strong downslide in the I-Fund.
Click to expand...
Thanks for the compliment, and your remarks. Boy, did that pretty chart get pretty ugly pretty fast! :sick: Good call! I agree that the I Fund is such a challenge to figure out, I see why Tom is so repetitious explaining all the external factors that go into resolving the final price of this critter in his daily comments...so many things can throw it for a loop. That said, I scrolled through the last 5 years of EFA to see what happened after a 2.5% outlier print, and while there are a bunch of down-side outliers, none were as big as today's. And a large portion of them resolved to the plus side within a month. Not trading advice. ;)
 
FishSqueezer said:
Thanks for the compliment, and your remarks. Boy, did that pretty chart get pretty ugly pretty fast! :sick: Good call! I agree that the I Fund is such a challenge to figure out, I see why Tom is so repetitious explaining all the external factors that go into resolving the final price of this critter in his daily comments...so many things can throw it for a loop. That said, I scrolled through the last 5 years of EFA to see what happened after a 2.5% outlier print, and while there are a bunch of down-side outliers, none were as big as today's. And a large portion of them resolved to the plus side within a month. Not trading advice. ;)
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Pretty sad when the American markets are the only place to go to make the broad money, bonds ain't paying nothing and the EU has issues...If you believe EFA trades off of TA, then this looks like a great setup for a bounce. OTOH the Dollar isn't supporting this move just yet and there's nothing more frustrating then two currents flowing against each other. EFA's rising wedge has for the most part met its price target, so a bounce (with a tail-wind from the dollar) could really move the I-Fund fast.

Back in the unlimited IFT days I would have jumped on this play.

View attachment 29250
 
July's Seasonal Forecast

1) AGG will close flat .25% to .50% (Look for 1 July to close down, as it has the last 10 years straight) (Remember the dividend tends to offset Tuesday's payout)

2) SPX will close up 1% to 2.25% (Tagging 2000-2025) (Support @ 1900-1910) (Closed 49 days with less than 1% move) (Prices are consolidating/rotating, expect rising prices until 18 July's Options Ex)

3) W4500 will close up 1.25% to 3.25% (1060-1080) (Support @ 1000-1025) (Seasonally weaker than SPX)

Seasonal IFT recommendation

1) 30 June, IFT 100 C (less risk) or S (more risk)

2) 18 July, IFT 100 G (less risk) or F (more risk) (for short-term allocations, G is the smarter play) (If on 18 July you think the markets will tank, F is the smarter play)

3) 24 July, IFT 100 C (less risk) or S (more risk)

Observation

Within TSP, don't buy on the day of a flash crash. When a flash crash happens, prices quickly gravitate to the strongest area of support where buy orders kick in and ruin your End of Day entry price. This often creates a candlestick with a long tail, wait 1-2 weeks to see if prices gravitates back to the flash crash lows, then take the entry.

Trading Notes

We don’t hope, we calculate, we analyze and we execute.

July's History, going back to 1950

Of the 65 July's on record, 35 have closed up (or 54%) for an average 35-Month positive gain of 4.05%, for an average 29-Month negative gain of -2.64% and a 65-Month average gain of 1.02%

If the first 2 days close down, of the 10 times this has happened there's a 70% chance the month will close down.

If the first 3 days close down, of the 6 times this has happened there's an 83% chance the month will close down.

If the first 2 days close up, of the 27 times this has happened there's a 74% chance the month will close up.

If the first 3 days close up, of the 17 times this has happened there's an 82% chance the month will close up.

View attachment 29300
 
Last edited:
JTH said:
July's Seasonal Forecast

1) AGG will close flat .25% to .50% (Look for 1 July to close down, as it has the last 10 years straight) (Remember the dividend tends to offset Tuesday's payout)

2) SPX will close up 1% to 2.25% (Tagging 2000-2025) (Support @ 1900-1910) (Closed 49 days with less than 1% move) (Prices are consolidating/rotating, expect rising prices until 18 July's Options Ex)

3) W4500 will close up 1.25% to 3.25% (1060-1080) (Support @ 1000-1025) (Seasonally weaker than SPX)

Seasonal IFT recommendation

1) 30 June, IFT 100 C (less risk) or S (more risk)

2) 18 July, IFT 100 G (less risk) or F (more risk) (for short-term allocations, G is the smarter play) (If on 18 July you think the markets will tank, F is the smarter play)

3) 24 July, IFT 100 C (less risk) or S (more risk)

Observation

Within TSP, don't buy on the day of a flash crash. When a flash crash happens, prices quickly gravitate to the strongest area of support where buy orders kick in and ruin your End of Day entry price. This often creates a candlestick with a long tail, wait 1-2 weeks to see if prices gravitates back to the flash crash lows, then take the entry.

Trading Notes

We don’t hope, we calculate, we analyze and we execute.

July's History, going back to 1950

Of the 65 July's on record, 35 have closed up (or 54%) for an average 35-Month positive gain of 4.05%, for an average 29-Month negative gain of -2.64% and a 65-Month average gain of 1.02%

If the first 2 days close down, of the 10 times this has happened there's a 70% chance the month will close down.

If the first 3 days close down, of the 6 times this has happened there's an 83% chance the month will close down.

If the first 2 days close up, of the 27 times this has happened there's a 74% chance the month will close up.

If the first 3 days close up, of the 17 times this has happened there's an 82% chance the month will close up.
Click to expand...

View attachment 29302
 
WorkFE said:
I hate it when JTH is silent. :D
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Bquat said:
Me too because his posts caused me to be in 100% instead of my normal 50%.:D
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I'm not sure what anyone would have me say, I've already given the forum July's forecast for the entire month. I stand by my analysis, and will continue to do so until the markets tell me otherwise. Sometimes folks spend too much time trying to make sense of the price action instead of accepting it for what it is. We can have 30 straight days of gains and the odds of the 31st day are the same as the 1st. How many folks got left behind in 2013, how many more will get left behind in 2014 thinking "Oh it can't possibly happen again?" Let's be honest, the markets do not care what we think, we are insignificant, only the markets are right, the question then becomes do we choose to listen to what the markets are telling us, or do we choose to impart what we think the markets should do?
 
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