JTH's Account Talk

[JTH]

Highest levels in over 6 months...

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[JTH]

Last chart of the night for SPX, going back to 1963

1) The average returns for the past 209 quarters has a 64% winning ratio with a 1.95% average gain

2) There are 30 positive 2nd quarters on record

2) Of those 30 positive 2nd quarters, the 3rd quarter closed positive 63% of the time

3) The last 4 times the 2nd quarter closed positive, the 3rd quarter closed positive

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[rktect1]

So we are waiting for the hammer to fall now?

 

[airlift]

So we are waiting for the hammer to fall now?

I wonder if the pullback has begun today, instead of dropping after the 4th of July Holiday?

 

[JTH]

So we are waiting for the hammer to fall now?

I wonder if the pullback has begun today, instead of dropping after the 4th of July Holiday?

52 days with less than a 1% closing price move, I wouldn't sweat it just yet...

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[jkenjohnson]

This market has shown me just how little I really understand about the market in general. I used to really believe in the Contrarian trading philosophy, but lately it seems it would be more profitable to just follow the herd.

 

[Whipsaw]

This market has shown me just how little I really understand about the market in general. I used to really believe in the Contrarian trading philosophy, but lately it seems it would be more profitable to just follow the herd.

I do believe there is a certain amount of manipulation going on in the 'media'... all the talk of a crash a few months ago before the rally; then talk of how strong the market is and more room to run just before a pullback... the FED talking about reducing QE and then not doing so. So, yes, a healty level of Contrarian (skepticism) is not a bad thing

 

[JTH]

This market has shown me just how little I really understand about the market in general. I used to really believe in the Contrarian trading philosophy, but lately it seems it would be more profitable to just follow the herd.

I try to tell folks it's more important to accept what is happening verses trying to understand why it's happening. There is a season for everything, the user's ability to understand when the system should be applied can be more significant than the system itself. Even Tom's Sentiment System has needed to evolve, and now applies conditional rules, otherwise it would miss some of these price moves.

 

[WorkFE]

Although friends dont let friends buy and hold it is tough to argue the mentality at the moment. When we had extreme volatility trading made gains, or lost them. Very tough to argue a long term position in equities with such low volatility. JMHO

 

[Birchtree]

My investment adviser, (Mindylou) is predicting Dow 18,000 within the next 19 trading days. And I'm still waiting for a 300 point gap open - I can feel it.

 

[Whipsaw]

My investment adviser, (Mindylou) is predicting Dow 18,000 within the next 19 trading days. And I'm still waiting for a 300 point gap open - I can feel it.

Doesn't that open gap have to get filled at some point? Not good for the buy-and-hold approach; a potential sell high, buy low opportunity for the market timer!

 

[JTH]

Another day in the books, now it's time for a relaxing weekend with friends and family, celebrating our independence

Closing at 52-week highs

S&P 100/500/600, Russell 1000/2000/3000, Wilshire 4500/5000, NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100, Transports, Dow Jones Industrial, New York Stock Exchange

 

[FishSqueezer]

Hey JTH, last week we were talking about the big 2.5% dump EFA took, and you mentioned that, without IFT limits you might have jumped on that. Looks like it would'a been a good play. Of course, I'm only getting part of it, but gains are gains. BTW, does gaping to fill gaps count as an island reversal, or is it just more of the I Fund silliness?

 

[Handballer]

11.43% No wander you are at the top of the tracker!

 

[JTH]

Hey JTH, last week we were talking about the big 2.5% dump EFA took, and you mentioned that, without IFT limits you might have jumped on that. Looks like it would'a been a good play. Of course, I'm only getting part of it, but gains are gains. BTW, does gaping to fill gaps count as an island reversal, or is it just more of the I Fund silliness?

It would have been a good play but the S-Fund still outperformed within the same timeframe by a slim margin. Watch the dollar, it's making an upside move which may hamper the I-Fund's performance.

EFA is just one of those gappy ETFs, so much so that I don't pay it any attention, glad to see you're picking up some gains

 

[JTH]

11.43% No wander you are at the top of the tracker!

Thank you, last month's 1% gain really hindered my AT standing and those premium service members are not cutting me any slack, there's about 30-40 of them above me and it's going to take some serious work to overcome them.

 

[nasa1974]

It would have been a good play but the S-Fund still outperformed within the same timeframe by a slim margin. Watch the dollar, it's making an upside move which may hamper the I-Fund's performance.

EFA is just one of those gappy ETFs, so much so that I don't pay it any attention, glad to see you're picking up some gains

We went and saw my wife's financial adviser (her IRA) and he was saying that the International market should be seeing an uptick. He is not sure when but he showed how the International market is really lagging the American market since 2008 and he was saying that they will see some pretty good growth over the next 5-10 years. Just something to think about and keep an eye on.

 

[Frixxxx]

Thank you, last month's 1% gain really hindered my AT standing and those premium service members are not cutting me any slack, there's about 30-40 of them above me and it's going to take some serious work to overcome them.

Steady growth can not be measured against others. I know it's hard to swallow, but personal goals on gains should be just that. You're doing well JTH, love the avatar!

We went and saw my wife's financial adviser (her IRA) and he was saying that the International market should be seeing an uptick. He is not sure when but he showed how the International market is really lagging the American market since 2008 and he was saying that they will see some pretty good growth over the next 5-10 years. Just something to think about and keep an eye on.

Been keeping an eye on it as well. Might need to see a boost in exports before I see a reason other than lag in their performance. The Yen is getting ready for a swing.....

 

[jkenjohnson]

We went and saw my wife's financial adviser (her IRA) and he was saying that the International market should be seeing an uptick. He is not sure when but he showed how the International market is really lagging the American market since 2008 and he was saying that they will see some pretty good growth over the next 5-10 years. Just something to think about and keep an eye on.

I just got the same advice from an Edward Jones advisor - Invest in International Funds.

 

[nasa1974]

I just got the same advice from an Edward Jones advisor - Invest in International Funds.

My wifes IRA is with Edward Jones as well. When we started with Edward Jones he listened to what I was doing with my TSP and we came up with a good statagy for her IRA.