JTH's Account Talk

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JTH said:
Here are the Top 84 compounded returns over the past 5-years, I did not post anything under the G-Fund's returns.

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Wow I did not expect to see myself even on the board. As u can see I have been a b&h for a long time. With that said my thinking is I have time on my side and as long as I have a little room to take a small hit I will. Although I'm like most waiting for that so called downturn. I do a lot of reading on the mb, wish I had more to offer but I'm still learning from you all thanks for the gains and thanks to all that educate me. Guchi
 
Sensei said:
I also saw Aviator Guy at #11 on that list. When I first started following this site at the end of 2010, he was the leader and he posted his thoughts and moves regularly. In the end, I think he made a fateful move to the G-fund and got edged out by the Sentiment Survey for 1st place, but those were the glory days. It's nice when the leaders participate on the forum.

Thanks JTH!
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One of the heavy hitters in recent years has been sigj, and I thought he might have left, not much action this year, but I did see an IFT the other day. I found an old post, and it was quite interesting about his/her decision making. I tried to nudge him out by replying to the post, but no luck. I kinda suck with this forum stuff, but here's a link to my reply which contains the full text of his thoughts:

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/members-account-talk/8070-joy-lynns-account-talk.html

He really seems to take into account a lot of different variables when deciding his actions. Pretty insiteful.

And yes, it's a bummer that just when I started to follow this site, Contrarianjeff drifted away. I think I remember a post where he was disillusioned by the IFT limit and was more into heavier trading.

Great info. In the immortal words of Garth and Wayne, "We are not worthy!" But seriously, thanks JTH for compiling these lists. Way informative.
 
jonfresno said:
One of the heavy hitters in recent years has been sigj...
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Yes, I'm familiar with his work on the AT. I also recall that he posted once and mentioned something to effect that his actual TSP account was set more conservatively. I certainly don't mean to take a personal shot at him - or anyone who plays "fantasy TSP" on the AT - but I found that somehow disappointing. Hard to articulate why. It's just that when I make a move on the AT, I make the same move in my actual account, so I take each IFT very seriously.
 
I agree to a point that your tracker information should mirror your actual account. However I certainly don't hold anything against anyone who does not follow that thinking, provided they are up front about it. One other issue is that one cannot account for recurring contributions unless you have those going into whatever allocation you implied on the message board.
Example: My every 2 week contribution/match and my catch up contributons (giving away age :D) may go into the G fund but my last IFT was 100% S fund with the idea of adding those gains to C,S,I at a later date, like when the market pulls back. In other words, the tracker does not take into account contributions unless one mirrors them with all their IFT's.
 
WorkFE said:
I agree to a point that your tracker information should mirror your actual account. However I certainly don't hold anything against anyone who does not follow that thinking, provided they are up front about it. One other issue is that one cannot account for recurring contributions unless you have those going into whatever allocation you implied on the message board.
Example: My every 2 week contribution/match and my catch up contributons (giving away age :D) may go into the G fund but my last IFT was 100% S fund with the idea of adding those gains to C,S,I at a later date, like when the market pulls back. In other words, the tracker does not take into account contributions unless one mirrors them with all their IFT's.
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Don't they get put in on your next IFT and are covered somewhat 75% of the time. They maybe lag 2 to 4 weeks unless you're a buy and holder right.
 
obviously I did not convey it properly. The tracker does not take contributions into account. Or you could just assume that future contributions flow to current allocations. There are folks on here that I would not consider B&H but only make a handful of moves a year.
 
WorkFE said:
obviously I did not convey it properly. The tracker does not take contributions into account. Or you could just assume that future contributions flow to current allocations. There are folks on here that I would not consider B&H but only make a handful of moves a year.
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OK, got it. Thanks
 
JTH said:
Gap filled

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JTH,

A discussed in Bquat's website, his charts seemed indicate that the SPX was going sideways and building a bottom. Based on your TA, once the gap has filled, is it more likely to get a more sustained bounce? If this is the case, do you believe that this should be a good entry point going forward? Thanks a lot you for your opinion.
 
airlift said:
JTH,

A discussed in Bquat's website, his charts seemed indicate that the SPX was going sideways and building a bottom. Based on your TA, once the gap has filled, is it more likely to get a more sustained bounce? If this is the case, do you believe that this should be a good entry point going forward? Thanks a lot you for your opinion.
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Airlift

We aren't building a bottom, the correct term would be building a high base since we are at the top of the wave. The objective of an open gap is to fill the gap, therefore that objective is met. While there is no hard-written rule on this subject, reversals at tops and bottoms do not need to coincide with gap fills. I do not like to buy at the top of overbought waves, so for my trading style, I do not see this as a good entry point. Truth is there may not be a good entry point this month, volatility is low.
 
JTH said:
Here are the Top 84 compounded returns over the past 5-years, I did not post anything under the G-Fund's returns.

View attachment 28970
View attachment 28971
View attachment 28972
Click to expand...

I tried to construct something like this a couple years ago. I gave up after losing about a year's worth of data to electronic gremlins. I still have my broken spreadsheets. I think I was trying to see who was 10% or higher each of the past 5 years, or something like that. Anyways, thanks a ton for doing this. It's worthy of printing out and pinning above my monitor. One day, when I grow up, I hope to make the list! I do, however, track about 15 folks and funds on paper, EVERY single day, going back to Jan 2011. It keeps my head in the game and helps me analyze the value or foolishness of my moves.

In addition to the other quality performers already mentioned one I always watch is Big John. He performs great, and he has a different strategy than most. It just shows that success can be arrived at by taking different avenues.
 
JTH said:
Airlift

We aren't building a bottom, the correct term would be building a high base since we are at the top of the wave. The objective of an open gap is to fill the gap, therefore that objective is met. While there is no hard-written rule on this subject, reversals at tops and bottoms do not need to coincide with gap fills. I do not like to buy at the top of overbought waves, so for my trading style, I do not see this as a good entry point. Truth is there may not be a good entry point this month, volatility is low.
Click to expand...

Thanks again for your clarification and detailed response.
 
JTH said:
Airlift

We aren't building a bottom, the correct term would be building a high base since we are at the top of the wave. The objective of an open gap is to fill the gap, therefore that objective is met. While there is no hard-written rule on this subject, reversals at tops and bottoms do not need to coincide with gap fills. I do not like to buy at the top of overbought waves, so for my trading style, I do not see this as a good entry point. Truth is there may not be a good entry point this month, volatility is low.
Click to expand...

Just for some clarification, Bquat and I are looking at 2 different timeframes, he is refreing to data over the past day, while I'm looking at the last 15-day upwave.
 
MrBowl said:
I tried to construct something like this a couple years ago. I gave up after losing about a year's worth of data to electronic gremlins. I still have my broken spreadsheets. I think I was trying to see who was 10% or higher each of the past 5 years, or something like that. Anyways, thanks a ton for doing this. It's worthy of printing out and pinning above my monitor. One day, when I grow up, I hope to make the list! I do, however, track about 15 folks and funds on paper, EVERY single day, going back to Jan 2011. It keeps my head in the game and helps me analyze the value or foolishness of my moves.

In addition to the other quality performers already mentioned one I always watch is Big John. He performs great, and he has a different strategy than most. It just shows that success can be arrived at by taking different avenues.
Click to expand...

Thanks MrBowl, I agree, I've always kept an eye out for Big John, he uses a great blend of "buy the fear" with "staying consistent." His consistency over the years is one of things which makes him special, he doesn't necessarily fold when things don't immediately go his way, he waits it out, managing time better than the majority of us.
 
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