JTH's Account Talk

[JTH]

I'm not sure if it will be fun, but it will definitely play out............

It's funny, I'm currently sitting in the G fund and up over 9% for the year while the S fund was up 2.11% as of yesterday, of course it will be up more today, but now I get upset subscribers saying that it is just like last year and I keep missing "all" the rallies and telling me how much my system sux. Some even suggest that I do! You sure you don't wanna be a premium service?

Funny, I think we always knew customer service was never your strong suite, but when the hard decisions need to be made, that's where you shine and I think most folks would agree with me. I was writing in my trading journal the other day because this very topic was on my mind, I originally didn't plan on posting it because it would probably come off as arrogant, but since you opened the door, I'll share the excerpt.

___
Short-term thinking leads to short-term results.

Two intrafund transfers a month with a 4-hour gap between the initiation & execution of price, does not a short-term trading system make. People who fail to identify & determine if their goals are compatible with TSP’s long-term trading platform will struggle to be successful. When a person seeks to impose their short-term views over a long-term system, they will fail to perform because the two timeframes are largely incompatible.

I wanted to add one more thing, here's a set of open questions to the forum.

Would it be wise for me to use an IFT with a 4-hour time gap to chase stocks, trying to catch this rally when stocks are already overbought & at 52-week highs?

What would I do if I jumped in and the markets reversed?

What option would be left for me if this happened?

Should I exit and take a loss or absorb the loss?

Would it perhaps be wiser for me to be patient and let the markets come back to me or should I chase the markets?

 

[MrBowl]

Very good posts, JTH. I think in most years about 6 well timed IFTs will yield fantastic results. Over the course of a month or two you should do well enough so that the 4 hr time lag will be insignificant.

I'm much better at saying these things than doing them, however.

 

[Intrepid_Timer]

Too many questions. Just put your big girl panties on and jump in!! Who says customer service isn't my strong point.......................:cheesy:

I wanted to add one more thing, here's a set of open questions to the forum.

Would it be wise for me to use an IFT with a 4-hour time gap to chase stocks, trying to catch this rally when stocks are already overbought & at 52-week highs?

What would I do if I jumped in and the markets reversed?

What option would be left for me if this happened?

Should I exit and take a loss or absorb the loss?

Would it perhaps be wiser for me to be patient and let the markets come back to me or should I chase the markets?

 

[burrocrat]

Short-term thinking leads to short-term results.

Two intrafund transfers a month with a 4-hour gap between the initiation & execution of price, does not a short-term trading system make. People who fail to identify & determine if their goals are compatible with TSP’s long-term trading platform will struggle to be successful. When a person seeks to impose their short-term views over a long-term system, they will fail to perform because the two timeframes are largely incompatible.

well that explains why my trading strategery's performance sucks then. i wish you would've said something like that earlier.

 

[JTH]

Very good posts, JTH. I think in most years about 6 well timed IFTs will yield fantastic results. Over the course of a month or two you should do well enough so that the 4 hr time lag will be insignificant.

I'm much better at saying these things than doing them, however.

Very good point.

Therein lies the crux of the matter, folks are looking for instant gratification within a long-term trading platform which is designed to give you a distinct disadvantage when seeking short-term gains.

 

[JTH]

Too many questions. Just put your big girl panties on and jump in!! Who says customer service isn't my strong point.......................:cheesy:

Money = Headache, perhaps you should have selective membership, with a questioner designed to filter out the aszhats... But then again, maybe none of your members could meet this criteria

 

[JTH]

well that explains why my trading strategery's performance sucks then. i wish you would've said something like that earlier.

Lol, well no matter for far you step back, you still have to be right :cheesy:

 

[ebbnflow]

Cool, not everyone wants to be a buy & holder (I get that) but at the same time, if you have an account with 10,000 then if a premium service makes you 2% then the service has already paid for itself. 20 bucks a month is chump change and is certainly less than the price of cutting your teeth. I don't pay that fee (not because I'm cheap) but because this is something I am very passionate about. I was fortunate in the beginning years to be a buy & holder when it was most important. Later on, as I ventured out on my own, there were many lessons I learned but TSP's platform had unlimited IFTs, so I could afford to "learn as I go."

Some folks think me to be a good trader, of the 5-full years I've been on the AT, I have only outperformed the S&P 500 1 of those last 5 years. Of the past 7 years, the S&P 500 has an 18.11% edge over me. That's a lot of work to be under-performing the markets.

Someone gets thrown under the bus, fess up, and then take the high road. Nice! You can't go wrong, JTH.

 

[ebbnflow]

Funny, I think we always knew customer service was never your strong suite, but when the hard decisions need to be made, that's where you shine and I think most folks would agree with me. I was writing in my trading journal the other day because this very topic was on my mind, I originally didn't plan on posting it because it would probably come off as arrogant, but since you opened the door, I'll share the excerpt.

___
Short-term thinking leads to short-term results.

Two intrafund transfers a month with a 4-hour gap between the initiation & execution of price, does not a short-term trading system make. People who fail to identify & determine if their goals are compatible with TSP’s long-term trading platform will struggle to be successful. When a person seeks to impose their short-term views over a long-term system, they will fail to perform because the two timeframes are largely incompatible.

This is just me, but I beg to differ. I have double patterns (short-term indicators) that take precedence over triple patterns (long-term indicators), and guess what? My double-pattern entries have been successful in 7 out of 7 tries. So, it really depends on your short game being compatible with your long game. Ooh, I love the golf metaphor on that one.

 

[userque]

I wanted to add one more thing, here's a set of open questions to the forum.

Would it be wise for me to use an IFT with a 4-hour time gap to chase stocks, trying to catch this rally when stocks are already overbought & at 52-week highs?

What would I do if I jumped in and the markets reversed?

What option would be left for me if this happened?

Should I exit and take a loss or absorb the loss?

Would it perhaps be wiser for me to be patient and let the markets come back to me or should I chase the markets?

Excellent questions JTH! (or anyone else), let me know if you want my serious opinionS on them.

 

[JTH]

Cool, not everyone wants to be a buy & holder (I get that) but at the same time, if you have an account with 10,000 then if a premium service makes you 2% then the service has already paid for itself. 20 bucks a month is chump change and is certainly less than the price of cutting your teeth. I don't pay that fee (not because I'm cheap) but because this is something I am very passionate about. I was fortunate in the beginning years to be a buy & holder when it was most important. Later on, as I ventured out on my own, there were many lessons I learned but TSP's platform had unlimited IFTs, so I could afford to "learn as I go."

Some folks think me to be a good trader, of the 5-full years I've been on the AT, I have only outperformed the S&P 500 1 of those last 5 years. Of the past 7 years, the S&P 500 has an 18.11% edge over me. That's a lot of work to be under-performing the markets.

Someone gets thrown under the bus, fess up, and then take the high road. Nice! You can't go wrong, JTH.

Funny, I think we always knew customer service was never your strong suite, but when the hard decisions need to be made, that's where you shine and I think most folks would agree with me. I was writing in my trading journal the other day because this very topic was on my mind, I originally didn't plan on posting it because it would probably come off as arrogant, but since you opened the door, I'll share the excerpt.

___
Short-term thinking leads to short-term results.

Two intrafund transfers a month with a 4-hour gap between the initiation & execution of price, does not a short-term trading system make. People who fail to identify & determine if their goals are compatible with TSP’s long-term trading platform will struggle to be successful. When a person seeks to impose their short-term views over a long-term system, they will fail to perform because the two timeframes are largely incompatible.

This is just me, but I beg to differ. I have double patterns (short-term indicators) that take precedence over triple patterns (long-term indicators), and guess what? My double-pattern entries have been successful in 7 out of 7 tries. So, it really depends on your short game being compatible with your long game. Ooh, I love the golf metaphor on that one.

Ebb, I'm not sure what it is you’re trying to attempt here. I was giving an honest assessment, targeted to the majority of members here, this message was not a specific jab at you, nor was it attended to be yet another opportunity to sell your system in my personal thread.

I’ll kindly remind you, back when your Premium System was the 1[SUP]st[/SUP] to be presented, there was a huge backlash against Tom, and I was one of the few members here to publically stand up for both of you and defend the right to monetize your hard work and efforts. At that time, some valuable contributing members stopped posting (we never truly recovered) and many of them never came back, yet I am still here. Myself and others, stepped up to fill the void, as will others step up when we step down.

I have done my best not to attack you, it is beneath both of us and there is nothing gained from it, but at the same time, if anyone in this forum misleads others, I feel it is my obligation to hold others to accountability. If you’re system is doing well, then I am honestly happy for you, but you shouldn’t back-track, adjust, we-write, or ignore the previous performance which is written in stone. I tend to leave you alone when you sell your performance in your thread and for those times I’ve stepped in, I apologize for violating your personal space.

Over the past 5 years, I know where our performance compares & stands within this forum, I have nothing to prove, but I do want to point out that the Auto Tracker exist for a reason. It’s so others such as myself don’t have to spend time digging through other member’s threads to prove their performance. It’s the one thing we all share in common, it unites our one common goal. I wish you would re-consider joining, if your system is as good as you believe it to be, then I honestly would love to track it, as would others.

We’ve had these conversations more than once, I have no desire to continue them further, let’s just agree to disagree, I will stop posting in your thread, please stop posting in mine.

Thanks...Jason

 

[ebbnflow]

Ebb, I'm not sure what it is you’re trying to attempt here. I was giving an honest assessment, targeted to the majority of members here, this message was not a specific jab at you, nor was it attended to be yet another opportunity to sell your system in my personal thread.

I’ll kindly remind you, back when your Premium System was the 1[SUP]st[/SUP] to be presented, there was a huge backlash against Tom, and I was one of the few members here to publically stand up for both of you and defend the right to monetize your hard work and efforts. At that time, some valuable contributing members stopped posting (we never truly recovered) and many of them never came back, yet I am still here. Myself and others, stepped up to fill the void, as will others step up when we step down.

I have done my best not to attack you, it is beneath both of us and there is nothing gained from it, but at the same time, if anyone in this forum misleads others, I feel it is my obligation to hold others to accountability. If you’re system is doing well, then I am honestly happy for you, but you shouldn’t back-track, adjust, we-write, or ignore the previous performance which is written in stone. I tend to leave you alone when you sell your performance in your thread and for those times I’ve stepped in, I apologize for violating your personal space.

Over the past 5 years, I know where our performance compares & stands within this forum, I have nothing to prove, but I do want to point out that the Auto Tracker exist for a reason. It’s so others such as myself don’t have to spend time digging through other member’s threads to prove their performance. It’s the one thing we all share in common, it unites our one common goal. I wish you would re-consider joining, if your system is as good as you believe it to be, then I honestly would love to track it, as would others.

We’ve had these conversations more than once, I have no desire to continue them further, let’s just agree to disagree, I will stop posting in your thread, please stop posting in mine.

Thanks...Jason

Hold on, I know you're on that AutoTracker treadmill of yours, so let's just leave it at that.

Let me elaborate on one thing. A few days back when folks began chanting your name -- JTH, JTH, JTH, premium service -- the delivery guy got wind of it, and immediately suggested on his thread that anyone can easily search how members did in the past by checking the AutoTracker archive. That message (never upstage the guy) may have gone over other folks' head, but not you. Your subconscious mind picked up on it and fessed up. I was commending you for taking the high road. :toung:

 

[Intrepid_Timer]

This is just me, but I beg to differ. I have double patterns (short-term indicators) that take precedence over triple patterns (long-term indicators), and guess what? My double-pattern entries have been successful in 7 out of 7 tries. So, it really depends on your short game being compatible with your long game. Ooh, I love the golf metaphor on that one.

Another lie. Here is your chart saying as much. You had a double pattern lose money just recently, although something else, perhaps another double pattern, caused you to stay in your position longer than you originally anticipated. Now perhaps you're last 7 S fund trades have been profitable, so let's looks at that shall we? BTW, I'm now seeing single patterns thrown into the mix? I don't see any double or single patterns prior to 2012? Should everyone expect that didn't change your back tested data or were there just not any double or single patterns from 2007 to 2012? That would be strange, but whatever.

Okay, so here's your own chart with all your double patterns (I actually count 10, not 7) in the black and red boxes. One thing that sticks out to me is that there were only two occasions where your double patterns made even close to 2% in a month. Most are under 0.75%. So, even if your double patterns are 100% accurate over a 12 month period, if you are averaging say 0.75% per trade, that's not even 10% per year right? I think I'd prefer better returns versus "supposedly" being 100% accurate.

Now, let's look at your return for last year. You system started off the year making 11.90% over the first there months of the year. Congratulations, that was awesome! But why did it then only make about 2.72% over the next nine months? You are now up what, 9-10%? Are we to assume you are pretty much done for the year again?

Sorry for intruding on your thread JTH. Just keeping it real........and truthful.

 

[rktect1]

Wow.

Well, I am just glad we have people on here like JTH. I am also glad we have some premium services as well.

Why cant we all just get along?

 

[FireWeatherMet]

I wanted to add one more thing, here's a set of open questions to the forum.

Would it be wise for me to use an IFT with a 4-hour time gap to chase stocks, trying to catch this rally when stocks are already overbought & at 52-week highs?

What would I do if I jumped in and the markets reversed?

What option would be left for me if this happened?

Should I exit and take a loss or absorb the loss?

Would it perhaps be wiser for me to be patient and let the markets come back to me or should I chase the markets?

Given our IFT limitations, this also revolves around the "moon"...namely time of the month.
Only time I might think its OK to chase what might be left of a rally is if we're within the last 5 trading days of the month and you're still sitting with your 2nd IFT. No big deal if you grab a quick half percent...or if the market reverses you can always bail to the G with that free IFT.

Otherwise, if your indicators gave you a certain signal, and initially it did not pan out in the next few days, AND its early in the month (Today is June 6th) then it makes absolute sense to stay in your safety position (F or G) when stocks are already at new highs with overly bullish and over bought indicators. Patience usually trumps impetuousness.

I will continue to watch price...but not fanatically...and patiently wait. This is something I have not done recently...I've chased and am paying the price this year so far.

 

[Birchtree]

Dow Transports hit another new high - how many more highs to come and how many will you miss.

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

 

[rktect1]

Dow Transports hit another new high - how many more highs to come and how many will you miss.

I don't want to break my streak this year.

 

[ebbnflow]

Another lie. Here is your chart saying as much. You had a double pattern lose money just recently, although something else, perhaps another double pattern, caused you to stay in your position longer than you originally anticipated. Now perhaps you're last 7 S fund trades have been profitable, so let's looks at that shall we? BTW, I'm now seeing single patterns thrown into the mix? I don't see any double or single patterns prior to 2012? Should everyone expect that didn't change your back tested data or were there just not any double or single patterns from 2007 to 2012? That would be strange, but whatever.

Okay, so here's your own chart with all your double patterns (I actually count 10, not 7) in the black and red boxes. One thing that sticks out to me is that there were only two occasions where your double patterns made even close to 2% in a month. Most are under 0.75%. So, even if your double patterns are 100% accurate over a 12 month period, if you are averaging say 0.75% per trade, that's not even 10% per year right? I think I'd prefer better returns versus "supposedly" being 100% accurate.

Now, let's look at your return for last year. You system started off the year making 11.90% over the first there months of the year. Congratulations, that was awesome! But why did it then only make about 2.72% over the next nine months? You are now up what, 9-10%? Are we to assume you are pretty much done for the year again?

Sorry for intruding on your thread JTH. Just keeping it real........and truthful.

Never fails to amuse: Intrepid and his ASSUMATIONS. Folks, this is one big reason why you don't translate someone else's "system."

Double patterns may lose, but it's the entry from start to finish that counts. That's why it's called double-pattern entries.
Let me explain it to you in terms you can understand. Before you shoot the ball, you should first look for an open player or a good spot to shoot (entry). Now, I have a double pattern starting next Tuesday. I look around and see an open pattern 3/grn-red-red (WP: 57.0%) today (Friday). Do you think I should pass up on a bullish single pattern who's all alone under the basket or take advantage of it? Well, today's double-pattern entry had a gain of +0.69%, so that answers that question. By the way, I discovered the double patterns only last year (no records for 2007-2012). All 7 double-pattern entries in the S-fund were live calls, not backtested. Successful in 7 out of 7 tries.

Double-patterns take precedence over single or triple patterns, and allow the system to be in equities (S-fund), even if our current triple pattern (4-4-4) is bearish. Don't assume that triple patterns can't change direction during the year. By the way, the system gained 3.0% in April, 4.12% in May, so don't try to go by your twisted calculations. :toung:

I mentioned before that from 2007-2012, all 14 triple patterns were successful. Last year (2013), all 3 triple patterns failed to beat the S-fund. This year, all 3 triple patterns have been right, so far. Everything has its cycle.

Sorry for the post, JTH. This should be the last one.

 

[RealMoneyIssues]