JTH's Account Talk

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Going counter-trend to market's expectations, I do expect it to be a short play

100S EoB today
 
OBGibby said:
How does the F Fund match up for the same time periods?
Click to expand...

Sorry friend, I do not track the F-Fund, just the S&P 500. In past times when I've done comparisons of AGG with the SPX I've had mixed results. I estimate AGG runs inverse to SPX about 66% of the time, but many of my systems that work on SPX do not work on AGG, it is its own unique animal.
 
Chevron (CVX) is knocking off 30 points from the Dow today. Yardeni says better days ahead once consolidation completes. Your patience is proving prescient.
 
JTH said:
Who wants to follow me over the cliff... :nuts:
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I considered it, but it looks almost like the S&P may be setting up a H&S (I posted a chart in my thread). So if we see a small pop early next week, I am concerned it could be followed through with a sharp drop...

but once again...no expert here.
 
I tend to get burned in a short play, often not agile enough (away from a machine at the critical juncture...). Hate to waste a move at the end of the month though.
 
No more moves left for me you'll will have blaze that trail without me. Bull-puffs.gif
 
I know I'm going against the institutional grain when I say this. The markets are looking great, they will break to the upside and flip the script on the far-leaning bears. I was going to put a hedge on my TNA with TZA, but I just don't like the setup, meaning I can't bring myself to get bullish on TZA. Don't get me wrong, we are definitely in a "Fade the rally" situation, but I'm not going to let this prevent me from making money. High risk = High reward or supreme stupidity...

View attachment 26971
 
JTH said:
Who wants to follow me over the cliff... :nuts:
Click to expand...

I wimped out, put in for it, then cancelled. Another notable autotracker, SIGJ, went 100% S today as well. Something doesn't feel right. I also have a damned stubborn streak. Back in Dec. I got in when the W4500 was around 944, S&P at 1782 and the I fund (EFA) around 64.58. EFA pulled back nicely, but I think there may be more downside, S&P is now around that price level, but the W4500 is still about 30 points higher. I have a hard time getting back in at levels higher than when I last got in when the market is this volatile.

I'm sure Monday I'll be kicking myself for missing the short-term rally. Buy-and-holders probably sleep better and live longer...:laugh:
 
JTH said:
I know I'm going against the institutional grain when I say this. The markets are looking great, they will break to the upside and flip the script on the far-leaning bears. I was going to put a hedge on my TNA with TZA, but I just don't like the setup, meaning I can't bring myself to get bullish on TZA. Don't get me wrong, we are definitely in a "Fade the rally" situation, but I'm not going to let this prevent me from making money. High risk = High reward or supreme stupidity...
Click to expand...

i ain't ever scared! :nuts:

can't win if you don't take risks right ;)
 
The DJT index is now at 7325 +24 points to the good - the DJU index is also in rally mode. We could see some serious short covering soon that will place the DJI index in the positive zone. That's a mighty kangaroo tail.
 
Yep, everyone that piled into shorts this morning is piling out now. Look what happened the last few times this MACD indicator got this low. This morning it was down at -11 and is already curling up ready for a bullish crossover....
Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com

The S fund index is threatening to go green momentarily as well.... If it does I'll move even higher in the tracker to #4.
$EMW - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

Birchtree said:
The DJT index is now at 7325 +24 points to the good - the DJU index is also in rally mode. We could see some serious short covering soon that will place the DJI index in the positive zone. That's a mighty kangaroo tail.
Click to expand...
 
What's so hot?

FireWeatherMet said:
You've got the Hot Hand with a good grasp at stuff so far this month...smartly staying out early and not getting sucked into the big dip.
I'll follow you....100% S
Lol...wish I had followed your lead, all I'm actually doing today is shifting half of my assets out of I...into S. :rolleyes:
Click to expand...

What's so hot and/or good grasping about those moves? IMO, it remains to be seen:

Were the leaders who properly picked F-fund chopped liver? Frankly - I'm half inclined to follow them into F to start out february, rather than hope for some sharp V in S (or I). In fact, it's starting to look like an inverted teacup handle instead of a right shoulder.
 
JTH, obviously you think short turn bounce will happen (100% S). Seems like tech fellows like yerself hedge with tech analysis (duh). Does not seem as much like gambling (Vegas with bad odds) when i see your graphs and dialogue that makes sense. Yet do you bias with emotion at all (yer human not a machine). My last several years with TSP have lead to bad choices by emotion, and yet i continue to do so... any thoughts
 
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