JTH's Account Talk

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rspring said:
If we should get a bounce, what would the price target be? I'm looking for the exit. I definitely think we will get more selling. Margin levels are too high and there will be margin calls eventually. I'm only down 2% but it feels like 10%. After Fri. close I felt we had more downside but I didn't feel it would fall this fast. I guess good news is bad news and bad news is bad news. It's time to re-group. Thanks
Click to expand...

I've updated the projections in my signature block.

The ride to 1740 was quicker than anticipated, that's a -6% cut from the top, a -10% cut takes us to 1665 (1660 seems to be a key level liked by some.) 1720 seems to have some appeal on 2 levels within the Fibonacci timeframes, as does the 1700-1705 area. This is a tough nut to crack, I've been right on the levels, but as usual I'm almost never right projecting when it's going to happen...
 
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JTH
I gotta tell ya- there is no freakin' way I/we can tell you how much we appreciate the time you put into this and the love you extend to the forum (yes i meant love). i know you would put in the time for your own TSP etc but there are not many folks out there that freely help (not intended to bust on premium or any I surely offended- I'm just sayin'). I have the time now (2 mo layed off) to follow but don't in normal year. I started late in GOV and am tryin' to catch up- cant afford another ride like 2008. Know many folks who rode that down near retirement and then got out at bottom- OUCH! Anyhow, I appreciate not just the help but the experienced/nuanced/educated/technical/TIME/ that you put in. My only hope is that you ride a good bounce and keep up the good work...
 

Not a problem and thanks for the thanks, I do this mostly for my own benefit, but we all look out for each other here, I've lost count of how many times someone has pointed out something I've overlooked, it's a great two-way street :)
 
One last tidbit before I head off to bed.

This Monday ranked as the 35th worst Monday & the 11th worst day in February over the past 20 years.

The average negative gain over the top 20 worst Mondays was -4.75% while the average next day's gain was 2% with the following 3 days being somewhat flat.
 
JTH said:
ROTH IRA progress report. :cool:

I'm currently 28.02% in Large Caps (GE) / 18.02% in Mid Caps (SNV) / 28.75% in Small Caps (TNA) and 25.02% Cash. That's a bit heavier than I'd like to be at these levels, but some of those positions were taken recently.

- Stopped out on ALU over 3 positions for an overall -10% loss.
- Still holding GE over 3 positions, down -8.34% w/stop @ 24.03 Since GE is a dividend paying large cap, I may just hold it, but that would go against the rules I setup.
- Still holding TNA, 3rd position triggered today @ 65.84 (the mental-stop price triggered @ 63.85) I'm down -9.76% if I place the stop, it could easily trigger tomorrow.
- Still holding SNV over 2 positions @ 3.45 & 3.21 currently down -5.35%

This may just be the worst start I've ever had. Setting rules with position sizing is not an easy thing to do when the trades aren't going your way. If my trades were going well, I'd be telling you how awesome I was and trying to sell you the t-shirt :D Still, the stops are in place to protect the bulk of the account, in this perspective I am doing well (judging the depth of the pullback's speed, not so much.)

View attachment 27033
Click to expand...

Stopped out of TNA for a 10% loss

Entered HEMP @ .22 (Yes HEMP)
 
I dislike mentioning it but if this heat persists are we fast approaching the infamous 'death cross' of the 50/200?
 
JTH said:
Fair warning, this monthly chart on the Dow Jones Industrials shows the December Low Indicator has been triggered...

"All but one of the instances since 1952 experienced further declines, as the Dow fell an additional 11.1% on average when December's low was breached in Q1"
Click to expand...

"17 of the 31 occurrences were followed by gains for the rest of the year after the low for the year was reached"

So if I'm reading this correctly, 55% of the time your better off staying long for the year.
 
MrJohnRoss said:
"17 of the 31 occurrences were followed by gains for the rest of the year after the low for the year was reached"

So if I'm reading this correctly, 55% of the time your better off staying long for the year.
Click to expand...

Gains for the rest of the year, not YTD.
 
Birchtree said:
I dislike mentioning it but if this heat persists are we fast approaching the infamous 'death cross' of the 50/200?
Click to expand...

The Major Indexes still look strong in that regard. Of the top 10 weighted stocks inside SPX, 8 are below both the 20 & 50 SMA, 6 are trading below the 200 SMA, and 2 (CVX & IBM) are in death crosses. I suspect (based on momentum) a few more of those stocks will pick up some death crosses before this is all over.

View attachment 27048
 
Yet another picture of the bear flag everyone's been watching. My countertrend entry on Friday was partially based on the fact everyone and their mother was watching the flag. On a regular stock I wouldn't have played against it, on an index, sometimes the right call is the countertrend, of course this wasn't one of those times :)

View attachment 27049
 
Since you is here, How bearish is it when the 20 DMA crosses the 50 DMA. Is it bad enough to keep the market from new highs. I know it's very bearish when the 50 DMA crosses the 200 Dma (Death Cross).
 
Bquat said:
Since you is here, How bearish is it when the 20 DMA crosses the 50 DMA. Is it bad enough to keep the market from new highs. I know it's very bearish when the 50 DMA crosses the 200 Dma (Death Cross).
Click to expand...

A few years back I had the Ninja software setup and configured within the confines of TSP's EoD prices. The system preformed scans of various moving average crossovers and performed buy/sell signals the following day. It would sell based on the next day's closing price & buy based on the next day's opening price. Unfortunately they upgraded their software and I had rebuilt my computer, I lost the configuration and was never able to reproduce it.

Bottom line, most of the moving average crossovers don't work in real time & under TSP conditions, they almost never outperform the markets, and I tested this under multiple time frames going back over 50 years on SPX. Longer term moving averages worked alright, but again it couldn't outperform the markets. Interesting tidbit, small timeframe inverse crossovers have the most success, such as a 20/10 crossover and they tend to work better in trending conditions.

I kid you not, I tested every moving average up to 500, I must have performed over 1,000 scans and I never found the golden ticket...
 
JTH said:
A few years back I had the Ninja software setup and configured within the confines of TSP's EoD prices. The system preformed scans of various moving average crossovers and performed buy/sell signals the following day. It would sell based on the next day's closing price & buy based on the next day's opening price. Unfortunately they upgraded their software and I had rebuilt my computer, I lost the configuration and was never able to reproduce it.

Bottom line, most of the moving average crossovers don't work in real time & under TSP conditions, they almost never outperform the markets, and I tested this under multiple time frames going back over 50 years on SPX. Longer term moving averages worked alright, but again it couldn't outperform the markets. Interesting tidbit, small timeframe inverse crossovers have the most success, such as a 20/10 crossover and the tend to work better in trending conditions.

I kid you not, I tested every moving average up to 500, I must have performed over 1,000 scans and I never found the golden ticket...
Click to expand...

I also determined long ago that moving averages are too lagging to swing trade with.
 
JTH
whats the death cross stuff you and BT are talkin'? You said get educated- we talkin' Google it or do you have a recommendation....
 
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