JTH's Account Talk

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JTH
I need to pay more attention- your signature block almost hit me in the face...
Q- you jumped in at SPX 1790 with 66% C-Fund (nice job timing the 2% drop) and i assume you would put the other 34% in as price drops towards target area (say mid 1758). Then if price hits up target (say mid 1820) at 100% C-Fund thats a quick 2 - 2.5% if you time the exit correctly. I get it. Now if a guy can hit on about 2/3 of those a year (18 - 20% or so) thats not bad...
Thanks again and pardon my newbi-ness
E
 
shitepoke said:
JTH
I need to pay more attention- your signature block almost hit me in the face...
Q- you jumped in at SPX 1790 with 66% C-Fund (nice job timing the 2% drop) and i assume you would put the other 34% in as price drops towards target area (say mid 1758). Then if price hits up target (say mid 1820) at 100% C-Fund thats a quick 2 - 2.5% if you time the exit correctly. I get it. Now if a guy can hit on about 2/3 of those a year (18 - 20% or so) thats not bad...
Thanks again and pardon my newbi-ness
E
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You are correct, in theory it can work, but it didn't work in 2013 because the pullbacks were all too shallow. The truth is I've had mixed results, if the markets pullback further I'll have more protection, if the markets thrust upwards I'll get left behind. I seek to outperform the S&P 500, so even if I'm taking less of a loss than that index, I consider it a success. My dad is much like Birchtree, he Dollar Cost Averages no matter what the market conditions. You could argue he makes more money (time is money) than I do because he doesn't spend countless hours crunching stats & charts, he sleeps better than me too :)
 
RealMoneyIssues said:
As soon as I finish the time travel pod I'm working on, I will let you know...
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would you hurry up with that time pod already? i'm tired of waiting. on the other hand, as soon as you finish we could roll back the clock to before i got tired of waiting, so that's a wash.

if i was cher and could turn back time, i'd go back to when i was still dating katie before she found out i cheated. i seem to have realized a little too late a good woman is worth more than all the gold, and it's been down hill ever since. sometimes i think about calling her and trying to explain, but i'm afraid she'd start throwing things and i'm pretty sure neither of us wants to go through that again.
 
Reminder, the SHORT-TERM stats have been updated, as have the Price targets. I posted several charts over the weekend.

2nd of 3 Limit orders executed on TNA @ 71.18 (Still holding GE, the stop is at 24.03)

View attachment 26874
 
I decided to execute my last IFT today (50% S & 50% C) thinking we are close to your price target. Hopefully we will bounce for the next couple of days. Thanks again for your insight.
 
Me too in the L2030, but added other positions near session low. I had a feeling (not enough to buy TNA) that the market would crawl back. Near flat/slightly positive close would be perfect for me and validate Friday as day to move in.

JTH said:
Not today, I'll sit this one out and re-evaluate the markets after the close.
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JTH said:
If you've read my recently posted
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JTH said:
Short-term stats, you would know the markets stand a fair chance of closing flat on Monday (based off the Top-20 Worst Fridays Chart.) My own estimate is that we will put in a spinning candlestick, with a tail longer than the head and a relatively flat close (thus setting up the short-term bounce.)

I drew this hourly chart in Mid January when we put in a slightly lower low on 14 Jan with the V-Bottom. This is how the channel is drawn, first I drew the yellow trendline from top to top, then I extended it out. Afterwards I created a parallel line and brought it down to the first swing low at the Yellow Circle. Lastly, I measured the distance between the top 2 parallel lines and copied a third line which was placed an equal distance below the second line. Thus this creates the parallel price channel I was working with.

In my mind, as long as the previous 1849.44 top was not permanently breached, the channel was still intact, and we were in fact just overbought. Factoring in Linear Probabilities (meaning what becomes overbought will eventually become just as oversold) I measured the distance of price over the top line (with the red arrow) and placed a copy of that arrow under the bottom trendline. Using this range as a guide (and knowing Monday has a fair chance of being flat) I would estimate Monday's price action will fall somewhere between 1777-1797.
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The markets met my expectations today (although we did dip a bit lower than my estimate.) One of my fairly reliable indicators tells me it's time for a bounce (this indicator doesn't work for corrections but works well in bullish trends.) I'm keeping the price targets as is, my expectations for tomorrow are a for a minimum 1% bounce. If for some reason we close below Monday's low, then I'd expect we'll take it down to the next level at 1748.

Note: Today the Negative Friday & Monday Indicator was triggered, I'll be posting stats on this later this evening.

View attachment 26888
 
I was originally going to post the stats of last 20 Friday & Mondays down, but the results were flat, meaning nothing could be gleamed from the data. So I decided to filter out Fridays that closed less than or equal to -1% as you can see, Tuesday (or the 3rd day) has a favorable pop with a 65% winning ratio and an average 1.17% gain.

View attachment 26889

View attachment 26890
 
thx for the analysis; it will be interesting to see how it plays out this time - which is near a bull market high; as opposed to a bear market bottom:

I'm really have no idea - at this juncture - I'd like to see a flat (<.3%) or positive day of any kind, or better yet - a couple such days; hard to believe the 200 EMA could be breached without some kind of relief, and without a clear catalyst for such a drop.
 
Thanks JTH...from someone that doesn't have time for detailed research that's a comforting stat. I was a little nervous today before noon but decided to hang on hoping for the after lunch buy back...and it came through somewhat....again thanks for all your hard work and info...if there had been a good bounce today I probably would have ejected....however...given the small pull back and uncertainty I will most likely hangout for a few days and watch closely...thanks again...
 
gronk007 said:
Thanks JTH...from someone that doesn't have time for detailed research that's a comforting stat. I was a little nervous today before noon but decided to hang on hoping for the after lunch buy back...and it came through somewhat....again thanks for all your hard work and info...if there had been a good bounce today I probably would have ejected....however...given the small pull back and uncertainty I will most likely hangout for a few days and watch closely...thanks again...
Click to expand...

No problem, it will be interesting to see how things play out :)
 
JTH said:
my expectations for tomorrow are a for a minimum 1% bounce. If for some reason we close below Monday's low, then I'd expect we'll take it down to the next level at 1748.
Click to expand...

The markets didn't meet my expectations today, prices were flat, while the indexes withheld the answers we were looking for. Perhaps we just needed another flat day, or onlookers are waiting for the great orator to give us a reach-around. Or perhaps the FOMC is just the spark we need to ignite this farse of a rally. As I write this the futures look strong, when the futures are this strong, this early, it's usually not as exciting of a market open as you'd think (or at least that's how I remember it.) Either ways, this hourly charts looks like it's flagging to me, I sure hope I'm wrong and we pierce through Monday's 1796 high.

View attachment 26905
 
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