JTH's Account Talk

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JTH...do you have historical data on how the markets respond on Mondays after Friday with large losses? In general...where do you go to get your historical data? Perhaps I can actually provide something useful to this group by doing a little research.

Thanks for all your good info...
 
UOTE=gronk007;439586]JTH...do you have historical data on how the markets respond on Mondays after Friday with large losses? In general...where do you go to get your historical data? Perhaps I can actually provide something useful to this group by doing a little research.

Thanks for all your good info...[/QUOTE]

I'll be updating my charts and statistics this weekend I'll dig out the data for you. historical prices in together from the yahoo finance website
 
S&P 500 just blew through it's 50-day like a hot knife through butter.

Where is that "1929 stock market crash" comparison graphic we were talking about the other day, anyway?
 
JT, you have been spot on with your targets, but I think there will be selling into strength next week. Especially if you see margin calls. I'll be looking back at your charts that you posted last night for a refresher of where we might be headed. Thanks again for you posting's. It's valuable information when you are in a volitile market. If we had more IFT's a month I would have joined in with you today investing a small percentage of my holdings anticipating a bounce on Monday. Good luck on your trade.
 
JTH...I was in another thread and saw your post...where in the world did you find this picture of my boss???
26844d1390588491-amoebas-account-talk-untitled.jpg
 
JTH said:
It's been an interesting week. I've used up my last IFT for the month. I sold some of the weaker and bought more of the stronger. If things go down from here, I'll hold on for a bit. If they go up, I'll scale back into G.

As of Thursday I'm .47% MTD. I don't want to be in this market more then I have to and less then 50% of the time would be ideal.

Effective EOB today

G 40%
F 5%
C 10%
S 30%
I 15%

Good luck everyone and I hope you guys have a nice long relaxing weekend. ;)
Click to expand...

Mcqlives said:
JTH...I was in another thread and saw your post...where in the world did you find this picture of my boss???
26844d1390588491-amoebas-account-talk-untitled.jpg
Click to expand...



Indeed. But his teeth are near perfect. I need to see the dentist lol...

-Geaux
 
damn- thanks
yust googled Bloombergs futures w/o thinkin'. Reminds me of Butch Cassidy and Sundance Kid movie where the kid tells Butch "you just keep thinkin' Butch 'cause thats what yer good at". I aint Butch...
E
 
shitepoke said:
damn- thanks
yust googled Bloombergs futures w/o thinkin'. Reminds me of Butch Cassidy and Sundance Kid movie where the kid tells Butch "you just keep thinkin' Butch 'cause thats what yer good at". I aint Butch...
E
Click to expand...


haha no prob...I was a total noob 2-3 years ago, I manage to picked up some stuff along the way.
 
I was on the road yesterday and executed my first IFT for the month into L2030 using my mobile device (was sitting in G-Fund since 12/19/13 as I posted in my account talk). I know L Funds are a lazier pick than your selection. However, I just caught up on your posts and I had same exact game plan, however mine was going to L2050 on dip and eject on up.

I will give a hat tip to you, as I am not bright enough yet to have thought of that completely on my own. If you look at an earlier post of mine from way back, I think 1808 must have stuck in my head!


JTH said:
My 1796-1808 price target (for all intensive purposes) has been met. We may go lower, but before I call a lower target, I'll need to judge the bounce. I'm going in with my first IFT this year, a 66% allocation into the C-Fund, from there I'll either eject on the upside bounce, or buy more on the extended dip, then eject on the bounce. I chose the C-Fund over the S-Fund because I believe it has better valuation (as you can see from the Fib levels I've outlined in the pictures below. Best of luck...

IFT EoB today 34G/66C

View attachment 26840

View attachment 26841

View attachment 26842
Click to expand...
 
JTH
been following your graphs lately and I/we sure appreciate your time and efforts...
any chance you have a target for bounce off the drops? If SPX drops to 1762 like attatchment 26840 shows, then are you thinking bounce to new highs or just right shoulder to 1812 range? Once again thnx for your time as i think next week will be HUGE...
 
shitepoke said:
JTH
been following your graphs lately and I/we sure appreciate your time and efforts...
any chance you have a target for bounce off the drops? If SPX drops to 1762 like attatchment 26840 shows, then are you thinking bounce to new highs or just right shoulder to 1812 range? Once again thnx for your time as i think next week will be HUGE...
Click to expand...

Thank you, based off current levels, the bounce is written in my signature block :)

If/when we drop further, I'll re-adjust the bounce targets.
 
If you've read my recently posted Short-term stats, you would know the markets stand a fair chance of closing flat on Monday (based off the Top-20 Worst Fridays Chart.) My own estimate is that we will put in a spinning candlestick, with a tail longer than the head and a relatively flat close (thus setting up the short-term bounce.)

I drew this hourly chart in Mid January when we put in a slightly lower low on 14 Jan with the V-Bottom. This is how the channel is drawn, first I drew the yellow trendline from top to top, then I extended it out. Afterwards I created a parallel line and brought it down to the first swing low at the Yellow Circle. Lastly, I measured the distance between the top 2 parallel lines and copied a third line which was placed an equal distance below the second line. Thus this creates the parallel price channel I was working with.

In my mind, as long as the previous 1849.44 top was not permanently breached, the channel was still intact, and we were in fact just overbought. Factoring in Linear Probabilities (meaning what becomes overbought will eventually become just as oversold) I measured the distance of price over the top line (with the red arrow) and placed a copy of that arrow under the bottom trendline. Using this range as a guide (and knowing Monday has a fair chance of being flat) I would estimate Monday's price action will fall somewhere between 1777-1797.

I realize that's is a 20 point range (big deal anyone can do that) but it's not the accuracy of the prediction that's important, it's how we react to it...

View attachment 26866


Also, here is the Excel stats I used to formulate the Top-20 Worst Fridays Chart, check out day 3 of Oct 24th 2008. Intersting we also have a January 24th 2003 on this list!

View attachment 26867
 
Looks like the bigger the down Friday, the more likely to continue down...

Maybe we have a bounce or a neutral day... who knows...
 
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