JTH's Account Talk

[JTH]

JTH, if you have time, I be ready for one of your longer term charts on the S&P. I want to figure risk/reward ratios again. I think risk is increasing midterm.

Thanks buddy, great timing, I was thinking about the very same thing.

Looking at the big 3 (S&P 500, Wilshire 4500 & Transports) 2 are overbought within the 6-month parallel price channel and all 3 are overbought within the bollinger bands. I have a sell signal on TNA but haven't found confirmation in other index-ETFs. All-in-all it's a great time to be invested but definitely not a great time to buy. In my ROTH IRA I'll be waiting for a pullback, in TSP I haven't committed to a decision just yet, but ususally I like to start the year invested.

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[Bquat]

I'm not telling anyone to get out, I still have 1 IFT and may jump back in before the new year begins.

Inquiring minds want to know. I see the sideways consolidation working and the low volume drift up starting again. I'm still only 50% commited at this time. Widened my ladder and rung position looks more favorable for a break upwards. Looking for your wise opinion on short term.

 

[Boghie]

JTH,

Sitting right at the Top Quintile border (I round the quintiles at the 200 marks). But you are sitting on the Lilly Pad. If the market moves up a tiny amount you will be a second quintile bubba - yuk, yuk.

Congrats on a great year...

 

[JTH]

Inquiring minds want to know. I see the sideways consolidation working and the low volume drift up starting again. I'm still only 50% commited at this time. Widened my ladder and rung position looks more favorable for a break upwards. Looking for your wise opinion on short term.

I do agree we have seen some consolidation over the last 3 days and since the previous direction leading into the consolidation was up, odds favor the breakout will be to the upside. I could make the argument we are overbought within the Bolinger Bands/trendlines or that the internals (indicators) are diverged from prices but in the end, only price matters and right now price is going up

JTH,

Sitting right at the Top Quintile border (I round the quintiles at the 200 marks). But you are sitting on the Lilly Pad. If the market moves up a tiny amount you will be a second quintile bubba - yuk, yuk.

Congrats on a great year...

Yes I am sitting at 200, if we have a good day today, I'll have sipped...

 

[Boghie]

Yes I am sitting at 200, if we have a good day today, I'll have sipped...

I'm sitting at 400. Spent too much time in the fear mode. I'm in the same boat. My 25% holding in the Lilly Pad will drag me down into the 3rd Quintile. Ahem...

 

[Bquat]

I beat Lincome.

 

[JTH]

I'm sitting at 400. Spent too much time in the fear mode. I'm in the same boat. My 25% holding in the Lilly Pad will drag me down into the 3rd Quintile. Ahem...

I beat Lincome.

Well, I look at it like this, regardless of the outcome I will never be happy with the results, either I'm 1st place or 2nd place (in which case 2nd place is 1st loser.)

I have nothing to complain about, I finished out the year with a YTD high and beat 3 of the 5 funds with an 83% winning ratio (losing on 4 of 23 trades) all while minimizing my exposure to risk. I also have some great lessons learned which can be applied going into next year. I'm very much looking forward to 2014, I'm so proud of what this forum has accomplished and can't wait to see what it accomplishes next year!

 

[JTH]

It looks like I'll be starting off the year in the G-Fund, it's not the trade I want to take but from my perspective it's the logical trade to make if you're already sitting in the G-Fund.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Well, I look at it like this, regardless of the outcome I will never be happy with the results, either I'm 1st place or 2nd place (in which case 2nd place is 1st loser.)

I have nothing to complain about, I finished out the year with a YTD high and beat 3 of the 5 funds with an 83% winning ratio (losing on 4 of 23 trades) all while minimizing my exposure to risk. I also have some great lessons learned which can be applied going into next year. I'm very much looking forward to 2014, I'm so proud of what this forum has accomplished and can't wait to see what it accomplishes next year!

Without a doubt, if you didn't learn any investment lessons in the past year, you've wasted your time. Every year is a learning experience, and it's often an expensive tuition, but well worth it. Good job, and good luck to you in 2014.

JR

 

[Birchtree]

JTH is giving this cherube a head start on the year - and I appreciate any advantage.

 

[rktect1]

We are all starting a new year. Doesn't matter right now if you are number 1,50,200,400 or last. Does not matter if you are in the g,c,f,c,s,I or what not. We have now been equalized.

Good luck to us all in 2014

 

[JTH]

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[burrocrat]

yes! finally, technical analysis i can understand! your graphics are getting much better and easier to read.

 

[OBGibby]

yes! finally, technical analysis i can understand! your graphics are getting much better and easier to read.

I second that. The commentary on the graphs were especially useful.

 

[JTH]

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[JTH]

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[OBXTrader]

Interesting. Year 1997 was the only one that fell on a Thursday. Day of the week seems to have little impact though. I guess there is more negative bias Tuesday-Thursday.

 

[JTH]

Report card time for the ROTH IRA in 2013.

The first 3 quarters of the year were excellent, the winning trade ratios were Q1 93% Q2 88% Q3 80% & Q4 54% with a yearly winning ratio of 71% out of 70 trades made.

However, there were problems, if you look at my Trading Profit Margin pie-chart you will see that for every 36 points I made on a winning trade, I lost 64 points on a losing trade. This is what happens when you hold unto the losers for too long and don't hold unto the winners long enough. Even with a 71% winning ratio, you can have poor performance if you're not position sizing correctly and setting up your entry/exits properly. In the 4th quarter my performance was poor, I became speculative, undisciplined, and lacked the patience to wait for the trade to come to me. As a result, I actually lost money in the 4th quarter. All-in-all it is was a profitable year, I give myself a C-

For 2014 I'll be focusing on taking fewer positions, increasing the profit margin while reducing the the loss margin, setting up the trade (waiting for it to come to me) and proper position sizing.

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Below: You can see all trades made, as you can see I let the losing trades cut too deep into the pocket.
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[ravensfan]

JTH,

You may give yourself a C- for the 2013 Roth IRA, but you get an A+ for the new charts. Great Job!!!

 

[JTH]

Thanks everyone for the kind comments, 2013 was a remarkable year, I hope 2014 proves to be even better!