jkenjohnson
Market Veteran
- Reaction score
- 24
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Or you can now use TapaTalk again!JTH's Account Talk
- Thread starter JTH
- Start date
JTH
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 802
From 10 Oct 2013
ENPH originally caught my attention last year, this March I finally took a position but got stopped out only to have the stock take off without me. My second trade was a 1-day scalp since I was off work that week. This has been somewhat of an elusive stock for me, just when I'm ready to pull the trigger, it takes off before I hit the button and I lose interest in chasing it. What makes it appealing is its relative strength vs. the S&P 500, ENPH is up 116% YTD, the downside is that daily volume is less than 1 million. As you can see, this stock moves fast so you have to keep your eye on it, I haven't spent much time in my ROTH IRA this year, I'm trying to find the groove and stay in it...
View attachment 25716Last edited:
JTH
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 802
This week's 15.27 point climb was somewhat of a sleeper, but don't let that tell the story. The weekly chart showed 3 weeks in the green with higher high/lows and decent volume to boot.
View attachment 25717
JTH
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 802
For those of you who will hold going into next month, here's the seasonal stats of November and the first 3 days of December.
View attachment 25718
JTH
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 802
For the last half of the day's price performance, the stats show it's better to make an entry on Tuesday and an exit on Wednesday.
View attachment 25724
JTH
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 802
The Mon-Friday stats show it's best to make an entry on Tuesday and an exit on Wednesday.
View attachment 25725
JTH
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 802
JTH
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 802
It should be a fun week, I'd love to see us ramp up going into November...
JTH
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 802
Nope, this is the average daily price performance for each trading day of the month over the last 20 years.
Example: Day 1 = 1st day of each month over the last 20 years
Khotso
Market Veteran
- Reaction score
- 27
Okay JTH, so now I'm going to pester you again -- well, maybe pick your brain is a better way to say it. I'm really curious to know what you did wrong and what you learned in 2009. I imagine some of it was bearish hangover from 2008, but I'm sure there's more to it from your perspective and would love to vicariously learn what you learned directly. I've followed you closely since 2010 since shortly after I discovered this great website and forum, so I know what happened in 2010.
I have to say that it does strike me that you would have done better by about 9.25% overall had you just bought and held the C fund over that same timeframe. Given that, are there things you've learned that weigh in favor of timing? Inquiring minds want to know.
Cactus
TSP Pro
- Reaction score
- 38
You lost money 3 years out of 6 and still beat the C Fund? That is impressive!!! It just goes to show that the BIG losses is what really hurts us. Trade safe everyone.
[TD="bgcolor: #99CCFF, align: left"]JTH[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #99CCFF, align: left"]C Fund[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FF99CC, align: right"]2012[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]18.56%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]16.07%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FF99CC, align: right"]2011[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (4.20%) [/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.11%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FF99CC, align: right"]2010[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]15.02%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]15.06%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FF99CC, align: right"]2009[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (3.61%) [/TD]
[TD="align: right"]26.68% [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FF99CC, align: right"]2008[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (16.00%)
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] (36.99%) [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FF99CC, align: right"]2007[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]9.41%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5.54%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FF99CC, align: left"]Mean[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #CCFFCC, align: right"]3.20%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #CCFFCC, align: right"]4.75% [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FF99CC, align: left"]Standard Deviation[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #CCFFCC, align: right"]12.14%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #CCFFCC, align: right"]20.27%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FF99CC, align: left"]Annualized Return[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #CCFFCC, align: right"]2.46%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #CCFFCC, align: right"]2.34%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FF99CC, align: left"]Total Return[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #CCFFCC, align: right"]15.73%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #CCFFCC, align: right"]14.88%[/TD]
Khotso
Market Veteran
- Reaction score
- 27
Ah, thanks for that Cactus. I keep forgetting the compounding factor that only gets reflected by annualizing returns. Simple annual means are "mean"ingless it seems. Very enlightening!
JTH
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 802
The Market bottom was in March 2009, but at the time (while going through it) some folks weren't convinced the bottom was in. I was following the wrong crowed while letting my view of economics interfere with the reality of what the markets were doing. From those mistakes I learned to filter out the news and economics and focus on the technicals, price matters more than any other factor.
JTH
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 802
JTH
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 802
I'm re-posting this chart because I felt like it needed to be cleaned up, making it easier to interpret the data.
View attachment 25742
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
In November 2012 my oceanic took in a gain of +$48K - that's peanuts to what will be gained this time around for November. November has the potential to be explosive - I know mom and pop are getting anxious and need relief for panic capitulation on the buy side. And then don't forget the great rotation out of more bonds. The stars are aligned. It is simply unreasonable to think we are about to embark on a new cyclical bear market especially given the immense amount of investable capital remaining on the sidelines and the overall decent valuations. To quote Hillary Clintion: it takes a global village to feed a wanton bull market.Similar threads
