JTH's Account Talk

[ravensfan]

I've mentioned the first half of August is seasonally weak. I didn't just make that up, if you read the 2013 Traders Almanac you'd see the data, furthermore, my own data confirms this prevailing trend. Now whether or not this will pay out for 2013 will have to be up to you...

View attachment 24727

JTH

No chart for September?

 

[rktect1]

Well, here we are again. 1650-1660. And seasonality plus syria do not promise rainbows, flowers and sunshine.

any thoughts? Im thinking about moving a good chunk back to G fund and wait it out. Of course the last time i did this i missed a 7% month.

 

[JTH]

JTH

No chart for September?

The first half of the month is stronger than the second half, based on seasonality, I'd expect a turn date 16-20 Sep (FOMC/Triple Witching)

 

[JTH]

Well, here we are again. 1650-1660. And seasonality plus syria do not promise rainbows, flowers and sunshine.

any thoughts? Im thinking about moving a good chunk back to G fund and wait it out. Of course the last time i did this i missed a 7% month.

1 of 2 gaps now filled, can you guess how this will play out?

View attachment 25107

 

[weatherweenie]

1 of 2 gaps now filled, can you guess how this will play out?

View attachment 25107

Climb the wall of worry, I hope.

 

[amoeba]

How will it play out?:

Well - if recent history is any indication, where it failed to recapture at closing the 50 and 20 EMAs that are just south of 1,660, it will drop like a stone to 1,630 again. We'll see.

 

[JTH]

This advise is for premium service subscribers (all others disregard, you don't need the help.)

The downtrend has officially ended, the September bottom is in, the uptrend will begin. When the 1652 shelf holds the test on Monday-Tuesday, we will close the week out 1675-1685

View attachment 25162

 

[jkenjohnson]

This advise is for premium service subscribers (all others disregard, you don't need the help.)

The downtrend has officially ended, the September bottom is in, the uptrend will begin. When the 1652 shelf holds the test on Monday-Tuesday, we will close the week out 1675-1685

View attachment 25162

How does the situation in Syria affect your prediction?

 

[maverick06]

My opinion, for what little its worth:
Syria... I would call it unpredictable. Specifically:
1) No idea how Syria will respond (Kerry gave Assad a week to turn in chem weapons)
2) No idea how our government will respond (vote for war)
3) how will the world respond to either decision
4) and how the market responds to anything is impossible to understand.

What I do usually know, is that news is temperory. If we vote to go to war, I would expect that day to have a big fall, but to be recovered in the next day or two. If it have extreme negative possibilities (I dont see) then I would go to G. But since its unpredictable news, i will pretend its not there.

what do I know, others are well over double my return for this year.... and I guess my advice is only for my premium subscribers too....

 

[JTH]

How does the situation in Syria affect your prediction?

Syria is already priced in

 

[Khotso]

Syria is already priced in

Sure seemed that way the day Kerry gave his speech didn't it?

 

[nnuut]

Priced in, Ha! Wait until we start raining down missiles on Syria, the markets will act as though nothing happened?

 

[Khotso]

Priced in, Ha! Wait until we start raining down missiles on Syria, the markets will act as though nothing happened?

Good point -- but the lead up to Congressional vote is already priced in IMO. Missiles fired is another story for sure.

 

[nnuut]

Good point -- but the lead up to Congressional vote is already priced in IMO. Missiles fired is another story for sure.

Or we do something really miniscule!

 

[jkenjohnson]

Good point -- but the lead up to Congressional vote is already priced in IMO. Missiles fired is another story for sure.

Yeah, I was referring to the missle firing which could ocurr this week?

 

[Khotso]

Yeah, I was referring to the missle firing which could ocurr this week?

Doesn't look like it now. Markets lifting off (instead of missiles) on news of talks between US and Russia to avoid missiles (and save Obama/Kerry face!).

 

[jkenjohnson]

Doesn't look like it now. Markets lifting off (instead of missiles) on news of talks between US and Russia to avoid missiles (and save Obama/Kerry face!).

What a bunch of sh-t.

 

[jkenjohnson]

Or we do something really miniscule!View attachment 25166

R u having an identity crisis? All these new avatars?

 

[JTH]

IFT EoB Today 66G/34S

 

[MrJohnRoss]

IFT EoB Today 66G/34S

Well, that's interesting, JTH. I realize $EMW is up against the upper BB, but what other factors are causing you to make this move? Possible double top?