JTH's Account Talk

[rktect1]

Well, i am not waiting around too long.

 

[JTH]

Bottom line, if 1606 doesn't hold, you should protect yourself, if 1590 breaks then I highly advise getting out.

1606 held today, needs to hold tomorrow

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

1606 held today, needs to hold tomorrow

Considering the gap down this morning... lets see

 

[Bquat]

JTH
"Bottom line, if 1606 doesn't hold, you should protect yourself, if 1590 breaks then I highly advise getting out." You're scaring me. I have 1578 as my primary entry.:blink:

 

[weatherweenie]

1606 held today, needs to hold tomorrow

Better than expected jobs report helped trim the losses in the futures. Unrest in Egypt isn't helping. I don't think we'll get much direction today, with the shortened trading session.

 

[JTH]

Better than expected jobs report helped trim the losses in the futures. Unrest in Egypt isn't helping. I don't think we'll get much direction today, with the shortened trading session.

Agreed, it looks like we will have to wait for our answers later this week.

 

[JTH]

Better than expected jobs report helped trim the losses in the futures. Unrest in Egypt isn't helping. I don't think we'll get much direction today, with the shortened trading session.

You called it, great call!

 

[tsptalk]

I'm confused, unless you are in G in TSP and short in your other accounts...

The pain in S is real...

Are you having pain in the S?

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Are you having pain in the S?

Yes, of course...

 

[JTH]

Thanks everyone for the comments, I've been promoted at work, more responsibilities and people to manage, therefore TSP has taken a backseat during duty hours.

Don't worry about the rejection on the Daily 50SMA we received today. Testing trendlines and moving average are a lot like dipping your toe in the water to check the temperature. You've heard me mention 1630 twice, do pay attention to the gap fill @ 1629.22 these are my minimum bullish expectations for this short-term rally. As of now, I'll be looking for an exit on Monday July 8th.

I've racked and stacked what I feel are the most likely outcomes for the month of July.

Scenario 1: Potential to pullback testing the V-Bottom neckline @ 1606, if this level holds, the bulls maintain control, we test 1630 again and either create a 1606-1630 price channel or break through with an early summer rally peaking around the end of July @ 1655.

Scenario 2: After 1630 we punch straight up to 1655, then testing 1630 again, possibly creating a 1630-1655 price channel.

Scenario 3: After 1630, we pullback to 1606 and it doesn't hold... It's worse than I thought, we test 1555 with increased potential to test 1515.

Bottom line, if 1606 doesn't hold, you should protect yourself, if 1590 breaks then I highly advise getting out.

Gap filled...

View attachment 24386

 

[JTH]

I'll be looking for an exit on Monday July 8th.

I've racked and stacked what I feel are the most likely outcomes for the month of July.

Scenario 1: Potential to pullback testing the V-Bottom neckline @ 1606, if this level holds, the bulls maintain control, we test 1630 again and either create a 1606-1630 price channel or break through with an early summer rally peaking around the end of July @ 1655.

Scenario 2: After 1630 we punch straight up to 1655, then testing 1630 again, possibly creating a 1630-1655 price channel.

Scenario 3: After 1630, we pullback to 1606 and it doesn't hold... It's worse than I thought, we test 1555 with increased potential to test 1515.

Bottom line, if 1606 doesn't hold, you should protect yourself, if 1590 breaks then I highly advise getting out.

View attachment 24296

Taking some risk off

IFT EOB 8 July 2013, 66G/34S

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Taking some risk off

IFT EOB 8 July 2013, 66G/34S

lol, you actually think we could ever go down again?

I hope you are right

 

[JTH]

Taking some risk off

IFT EOB 8 July 2013, 66G/34S

lol, you actually think we could ever go down again?

I hope you are right

I've been right and will continue to be until I'm not. I still have some skin in the game and an IFT, so regardless of the direction I'll find a way to make some money

 

[JTH]

Another gap to be filled, this time to the downside...

View attachment 24416

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Market going down...

 

[OBXTrader]

Hi JTH - Thanks for your thoughtful posts, they are in part why I went from long time forum troll to registering this weekend. Have an account talk thread too.

Are your scenarios posted on June 27th still valid?

 

[JTH]

Hi JTH - Thanks for your thoughtful posts, they are in part why I went from long time forum troll to registering this weekend. Have an account talk thread too.

Are your scenarios posted on June 27th still valid?

Thank you for the kind words, I would like to see the gap get filled before we continue higher, I'd also like to see the 1630 area hold as support, if we bounce off the gap fill, that's a good sign. For confirmation, of a pullback, I'll be looking for negative volume to close above its 200SMA, this usually signals the pullback is beginning.

Love the Avatar!

 

[Birchtree]

The Transports are very hot today - +178 points so far. Will the Dow follow in their tracks?

 

[JTH]

Markets have met my 1655 expectations (although earlier than expected.) Anything above this level is akin to finding money in the dryer...

 

[JTH]

Folks are waiting to buy on a pullback, that hasn't worked this year and that will continue to be the case until it isn't. Dart throwing monkeys are making money this year, don't get in your own way, don't over think it, it's a bull market, this is what a bull market does...

At this time I can see strong potential to test the 1687 area this month, somewhere in the green circle.

View attachment 24460