JTH's Account Talk

[JTH]

JTH, where do you see the market going from here? Do you still believe we have a correction ahead? I am still holding my TZA shares. I'm still down a little bit, but I was tempted to sell this morning on the nice pop it had...

I'm down about 9% in TZA, but based on June's seasonal stats, I'm going to hold TZA until SPX resumes the upside above 1655 (under current price leves.)

 

[rktect1]

A lot of youz guyz talk about tza on this site.

What am i missing out on here? This seems like you are trading this one. Up down up down.

 

[JTH]

A lot of youz guyz talk about tza on this site.

What am i missing out on here? This seems like you are trading this one. Up down up down.

I've only played it twice this year, I'm using it as a hedge to counterbalance my long positions. It's dangerous to play a leveraged inverse ETF...

 

[JTH]

If it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck, it's a duck...

View attachment 23995

 

[Sensei]

Enter around the 12th, exit around the 19th, maybe?

 

[JTH]

Enter around the 12th, exit around the 19th, maybe?

Agreed, that's what the stats confer, too bad the IFT limits make that a difficult play.

 

[JTH]

Another boring day in the markets. Across the indexes, my downside price targets have been met, but there is a bit more data I'd like to see before I'll entertain an entry.

View attachment 24016

 

[JTH]

This chart outlines key support where a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, 50SMA, and Long-term trendline converge. This would be a good place to get a short-term bounce before the downslide continues.

View attachment 24026

 

[burrocrat]

i like your format there, easy visual read. it was taking me minutes just absorb what you were saying in the text format, and i don't think i got the picture that way. nice work.

Another boring day in the markets. Across the indexes, my downside price targets have been met, but there is a bit more data I'd like to see before I'll entertain an entry.

View attachment 24016

 

[JTH]

Some notes going into tomorrow. The 20SMA, 50% retracement, and the green/red trendline may be areas we get resistance. The green/red line was support twice, but now has proven to be resistance once. We also have an unfilled gap in the yellow box. As it stands now, we are overbought within the descending channel.

View attachment 24045

 

[JTH]

50G/50S EOB Today

Took a loss of -2.65% in the F-Fund, it was a strategic & seasonal play that did not work out. One of my systems produced a buy signal today, it only produces about 3 a year unless we are under severe bear market conditions. In a bull market it has a very high success rate, enough so to get me back in the markets with a 50S allocation. This leaves 1 IFT to put the rest in, should I decide to do so.

 

[clester]

Man, I hate the F fund. I've never had much luck with it.

 

[ravensfan]

Man, I hate the F fund. I've never had much luck with it.

I know the feeling. I did ok with it in 2011, but that was more dumb luck than anything else. I bailed in early 2013 and have'nt touched it since.

 

[JTH]

Man, I hate the F fund. I've never had much luck with it.

In past times I've had great success with mid-term positons in the F-Fund, this wasn't one of those times. From day 1 it was faily obvious it wasn't working out, I just chose to watch the paint dry. Still sitting mostly in cash in the ROTH IRA, I sleep well at night, so the important stuff is taken care of

 

[JTH]

Some notes going into tomorrow. The 20SMA, 50% retracement, and the green/red trendline may be areas we get resistance. The green/red line was support twice, but now has proven to be resistance once. We also have an unfilled gap in the yellow box. As it stands now, we are overbought within the descending channel.

View attachment 24045

The Gap is now filled

 

[MaStA]

So I assume you sold your TZA shares as well...? I'm still holding mine with a small loss. I'm hoping tomorrow will put me in the positive and in a place I can setup a stop to ensure I can lock in a gain. I've had these shares for over a month now and it's been a damn roller coaster ride, but I've held them in hopes of things to eventually go my way.

 

[JTH]

So I assume you sold your TZA shares as well...? I'm still holding mine with a small loss. I'm hoping tomorrow will put me in the positive and in a place I can setup a stop to ensure I can lock in a gain. I've had these shares for over a month now and it's been a damn roller coaster ride, but I've held them in hopes of things to eventually go my way.

Nope, I'm down -3.6% in TZA and -12.92% in BPZ, sitting 63% cash, up 4.34% YTD in the ROTH IRA. One thing that's different this year is that I'm willing to hold positions longer. I sold for a -8.91% loss in ENPH (my only losing trade this year) and it stares at me like a dagger through the heart. With time on my side I'd rather hold a losing position and build it, than take the loss. The ROTH IRA is a learning process for me, I'm getting better at position sizing, and timing, but it hasn't been a perfect start to the year. For now I see potential for a test of SPX 1555, which is why I'm 50% invested in the S-Fund.

 

[JTH]

Blood flowing in the streets, I love it, these are the days

 

[jkenjohnson]

Blood flowing in the streets, I love it, these are the days

How low will we go?

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Blood flowing in the streets, I love it, these are the days

I'm confused, unless you are in G in TSP and short in your other accounts...

The pain in S is real...