JTH's Account Talk

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Looking for 1555 area. Yes, holding TZA in the profit zone. I will be buying into the S-Fund today today
 
A reminder of the graph I posted awhile back, nothing new, the overall analysis for May/June has been correct, we peaked in May. At current levels, anything below 1606 gives the Bears control, anything above 1606 puts the bulls back in control. We've declined -7.51% from the May peak, I've left myself 25% G so that I have some wiggle room to scoop up more shares next month. We are extremely oversold (but not embedded) my instincts tell me the bottom is near and we should attempt a rally to 1630. Expect the previous 6-month bottom trendline to become resistance.

View attachment 24245
 
JTH said:
A reminder of the graph I posted awhile back, nothing new, the overall analysis for May/June has been correct, we peaked in May. At current levels, anything below 1606 gives the Bears control, anything above 1606 puts the bulls back in control. We've declined -7.51% from the May peak, I've left myself 25% G so that I have some wiggle room to scoop up more shares next month. We are extremely oversold (but not embedded) my instincts tell me the bottom is near and we should attempt a rally to 1630. Expect the previous 6-month bottom trendline to become resistance.
Click to expand...

Today we hit the 1606 bear/bull pivot area, tomorrow we should get our answer on which direction the markets will take in the short-term. If my analysis continues to be true, then we should rally through the end of the month into the beginning of July, as previously mentioned we should expect a rejection when we hit the bottom green trendline in the 1630 area.

View attachment 24280
 
That aint much of a rally from 1606 to 1630.

What is your odds of going to the next green line or the one above that?
 
Well, if you've missed the rally the last two days, I don't think it's worth the risk to get in now. You're too likely to be buying high as we bounce off the 50 DMA.
 
rktect1 said:
That aint much of a rally from 1606 to 1630.

What is your odds of going to the next green line or the one above that?
Click to expand...

Odds are slim, usually the first attempt gets rejected, but odds on the second attempt fair much better.
 
Thanks everyone for the comments, I've been promoted at work, more responsibilities and people to manage, therefore TSP has taken a backseat during duty hours.

Don't worry about the rejection on the Daily 50SMA we received today. Testing trendlines and moving average are a lot like dipping your toe in the water to check the temperature. You've heard me mention 1630 twice, do pay attention to the gap fill @ 1629.22 these are my minimum bullish expectations for this short-term rally. As of now, I'll be looking for an exit on Monday July 8th.

I've racked and stacked what I feel are the most likely outcomes for the month of July.

Scenario 1: Potential to pullback testing the V-Bottom neckline @ 1606, if this level holds, the bulls maintain control, we test 1630 again and either create a 1606-1630 price channel or break through with an early summer rally peaking around the end of July @ 1655.

Scenario 2: After 1630 we punch straight up to 1655, then testing 1630 again, possibly creating a 1630-1655 price channel.

Scenario 3: After 1630, we pullback to 1606 and it doesn't hold... It's worse than I thought, we test 1555 with increased potential to test 1515.

Bottom line, if 1606 doesn't hold, you should protect yourself, if 1590 breaks then I highly advise getting out.

View attachment 24296
 
JTH said:
Thanks everyone for the comments, I've been promoted at work, more responsibilities and people to manage, therefore TSP has taken a backseat during duty hours.

Don't worry about the rejection on the Daily 50SMA we received today. Testing trendlines and moving average are a lot like dipping your toe in the water to check the temperature. You've heard me mention 1630 twice, do pay attention to the gap fill @ 1629.22 these are my minimum bullish expectations for this short-term rally. As of now, I'll be looking for an exit on Monday July 8th.

I've racked and stacked what I feel are the most likely outcomes for the month of July.

Scenario 1: Potential to pullback testing the V-Bottom neckline @ 1606, if this level holds, the bulls maintain control, we test 1630 again and either create a 1606-1630 price channel or break through with an early summer rally peaking around the end of July @ 1655.

Scenario 2: After 1630 we punch straight up to 1655, then testing 1630 again, possibly creating a 1630-1655 price channel.

Scenario 3: After 1630, we pullback to 1606 and it doesn't hold... It's worse than I thought, we test 1555 with increased potential to test 1515.

Bottom line, if 1606 doesn't hold, you should protect yourself, if 1590 breaks then I highly advise getting out.

View attachment 24296
Click to expand...

Like watching paint dry...
 
Price usually makes the majority wrong, when I examine price, I don't look for answers, I look for future questions that have yet to be asked and answered. Logic would dictate the gap will be filled on Wednesday and because a rejection at the gap fill is probable, this would leave the question what happens next? That question is best left unanswered over July 4th, therefore Wednesday is a probable answer. I personally think the gap will be filled anytime between Tuesday to Monday, with the highest probability being tomorrow.
 
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