JTH's Account Talk

[JTH]

When I evaluate prices, I could argue them in any direction as there is convincing evidence on both sides of the trade. For the short-term I believe the bulls have control, but it wouldn't take much to put us back in the bear camp. It's tough to stay long under these circumstances, I do so knowing I'm taking on additional risk outside my normal comfort level. I can't blame anyone for staying on the sidelines, I'll stick it out here as long as we stay above the bottom green trendline.

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[Warrenlm]

I rarely put myself in a political discussion but I had a realization after watching an episode of The Closer that completely brought the polarity in our political atmosphere into focus.

From http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VnUBNRZaFJY
SGT Gabriel says: "You know something is bothering me a little. This whole CIA thing. I don't know how much I trust them. You know how I feel about the people that work there."

Brenda responds: "I know, it is a 'gray area'. I remember once hearing a speech about what it meant to be an officer of the CIA. And the man who gave this speech talked about the struggle to control civilization and how we are always fighting the same fight. And he used the dark ages as an example.

He talked about how one side you had the pragmatic King who was greedy and power hungry and basically took advatange of people whenever he could. On the other side you had the idealistic church forcing everyone to follow the same rules and believe the same things.

Neither the King nor the Church was ever completely right. Both sides ended up doing terrible things to get what they wanted. Really terrible things.

The point of the story was this, that this struggle from the dark ages had been going on forever. That the church and the King might take on different forms and philosophies, but they would always fight each other. Pragmatists and Idealists. And that most times, you are better off standing on the sidelines and letting them duke it out.

But every once and a while, one side or the other decides it might be better to just blow up the whole world just to get its own way. And when that happens, you can't stand on the sidelines anymore. You have to pick a team.

And so for tonight, anyway, we are serving the King.

So, look at the parties from their philosophy and then look hard at your philosophy and see why you have such strong opinions that lead to name calling. Every so often, the parties change/switch philosophies, but if you understand their philosophy, you will not be fooled by the circus they present. Anyone doubt that Congress and the Teaparty tried to blow us up over the debt ceiling? Did you take a side? Just some random thoughts. Carry on.

p.s. I personally think the pragmatist are winning right now. Destroy the idealistic institutions such as the Postal service, unions, FDA, EPA, etc... and put your own people in place to make you and your friends money at the expense of the greater whole, i.e. the country and the future. IMO

Sorry to clutter JTH's thread with more, but I have to say two things. I agree with the historical context of this grand American experiment. I think people are more comfortable with following than leading and will respond to the voice they want to believe. However, I disagree with the illogical blame for the debt ceiling histrionics in this quote. One side wanted something the other side refused to give: a real change in the trajectory of debt increases. Why does the spouse, who tells the other spouse that the current credit card limit should not be increased until the household agrees in a real change in today's spending and its tail (as opposed to a reduction a few years hence that can be forgotten) take the blame in the eyes of citizens? Seems to me the siren song that false savings--and the singer--are at fault. But the media works its magic on the ears.

 

[grandma]

If I may, Jason, one more thing -

I rarely put myself in a political discussion but I had a realization after watching an episode of The Closer that completely brought the polarity in our political atmosphere into focus.

Script writers have used drama, music, art to push their agendas since nearly forever. The difference now is only that in years past the viewer had to take himself to where the script was being played out. Now our living rooms, our cars, the eyes & ears are inundated with it. When a writer's theory, belief sparks your interest he has nearly accomplished his goal; the remaining is for the viewer to interpret it toward the balancer the writer himself is sitting on.

 

[Dutchy]

When I evaluate prices, I could argue them in any direction as there is convincing evidence on both sides of the trade. For the short-term I believe the bulls have control, but it wouldn't take much to put us back in the bear camp. It's tough to stay long under these circumstances, I do so knowing I'm taking on additional risk outside my normal comfort level. I can't blame anyone for staying on the sidelines, I'll stick it out here as long as we stay above the bottom green trendline.

View attachment 15277

THanks for the great chart and your analysis JTH...

 

[JTH]

When I evaluate prices, I could argue them in any direction as there is convincing evidence on both sides of the trade. For the short-term I believe the bulls have control, but it wouldn't take much to put us back in the bear camp. It's tough to stay long under these circumstances, I do so knowing I'm taking on additional risk outside my normal comfort level. I can't blame anyone for staying on the sidelines, I'll stick it out here as long as we stay above the bottom green trendline.

View attachment 15277

THanks for the great chart and your analysis JTH...

Thanks Dutchy, some folks see a head & shoulders forming (easily seen on the hourly charts) and I'm inclined to agree it's time we watch that neckline. But the neckline is so close to the bottom of the channel, it's a mute point. Willshire 4500 needs to hold (for today) at about 575 wile the S&P 500 needs to hold (for today) at about 1145.

 

[Dutchy]

I too am riding the S Fund. Sure hope the Markets hold in the channel today and does not collapse this afternoon with the weekend approaching and all the negative news circulating. That damn 12 noon IFT is so frustrating. It is to early in the month for me to lock in the G Fund today which is what I would do because its my second IFT. May have better action next week and our patient rewarded!

 

[Bquat]

Thanks Dutchy, some folks see a head & shoulders forming (easily seen on the hourly charts) and I'm inclined to agree it's time we watch that neckline. But the neckline is so close to the bottom of the channel, it's a mute point. Willshire 4500 needs to hold (for today) at about 575 wile the S&P 500 needs to hold (for today) at about 1145.

You are so right here, but I'm kind of concerned that we turned mid channel without touching the top forming a new high. With the loewr high I'm a little bearish, but I hope it holds for you.

 

[Mcqlives]

It seems like most of us are in agreement with holding/tuning target points in the channel we are currently in. The differences is what direction we each are seeing the future trends, within that same channel, moving. I don't believe that the 1145 mark is going to hold and that 1120ish, the next decent point, won't hold either. I wish you the best JTH and Dutchy!!!

 

[coolhand]

Had a day off today...slept in till mid morning...flipped on the computer, saw the indices on TSPTALKs homepage, and nearly spilled my coffee as I saw the downhill slide. Where it stops, no one knows...but like JT says often...the last hr might be key. If we see a decent buy back, erasing maybe 1/3 of the losses, that bodes well that our bottom is near. (<2%) on the heels of good Euro news.

If one believes this is a bear market (and I do), then my thought here is that the bulls are being conditioned to expect a bounce near support. At some point, that may not happen and the next significant slide could begin. I would be very wary of a bounce at the end of the day here, because that could be the hook.

 

[Warrenlm]

Daggone it, he keeps putting money into that hole in the water. The nerve of him to say he's worried about the bank increasing the card limit just because she's written a cash advance check to triple free lunches for needy and unneedy alike. She'll fix him. She'll go public and show how mean he is. The bank isn't mad yet. Who cares? And all the kids agree he's mean to bring up the subject.

 

[JTH]

If one believes this is a bear market (and I do), then my thought here is that the bulls are being conditioned to expect a bounce near support. At some point, that may not happen and the next significant slide could begin. I would be very wary of a bounce at the end of the day here, because that could be the hook.

At this point in the game I feel like a cheap used pair of underware, sat on, **** on, and worn out... This market has deflated, the downside looks more probable than ever.

 

[jkenjohnson]

At this point in the game I feel like a cheap used pair of underware, sat on, **** on, and worn out... This market has deflated, the downside looks more probable than ever.

My sentiments exactly.

 

[coolhand]

At this point in the game I feel like a cheap used pair of underware, sat on, **** on, and worn out... This market has deflated, the downside looks more probable than ever.

There's no shortage of used underwear around these days. :cheesy:

I'd love to take a shot at some upside, but the downside risk is a bit much for me these days. I do believe we'll be seeing lower prices, I just can't quite tell when. But my charts are suggesting it could be very soon. Perhaps next week (triple witching week). Historically, the next two weeks have seen some significant downside action, but that could be a bit too obvious for it to happen this time around. But I also don't see us bouncing around in this channel forever either.

 

[Happy_Trails]

Seriously wondering if I should sell my ETF positions this afternoon and live to fight another day. Currently down about 5% the last two days alone. It feels like capitulation though but it sounds like the consensus is we are heading lower.

 

[Warrenlm]

Another indicator: The CNBC panicky talk is increasing in fervor and volume, not slowing or leveling. Usually a few heads pokew their heads in and start talking like Birchtree just before the turn up, in timeframes more than gee whiz gotta be.

Someone is expecting a turn up in consumer sentiment within 6 months. That someone better start buying more stocks cuz Dennis' are not enough.

 

[Happy_Trails]

Another indicator: The CNBC panicky talk is increasing in fervor and volume, not slowing or leveling. Usually a few heads pokew their heads in and start talking like Birchtree just before the turn up, in timeframes more than gee whiz gotta be.

Someone is expecting a turn up in consumer sentiment within 6 months. That someone better start buying more stocks cuz Dennis' are not enough.

Thank goodness I'm not watching that. I think I'm holding - what the heck.

 

[tsptalk]

For those still in, don't forget that volatility is high and there will be opportunities. But don't get greedy and take what the market gives you. When in a bear market - expect a bearish outcome and sell the rallies. Unfortunately, I think Monday could be ugly again based on a couple of things including Ebb's daily pattern for that day.

Good luck!

 

[Cactus]

At this point in the game I feel like a cheap used pair of underware, sat on, **** on, and worn out... This market has deflated, the downside looks more probable than ever.

Hopefully this is your only experience of this. For me the lost decade has turned into the lost dozen years. I curse the day (May 2000) I was talked out of 100% G Fund and entered the market. I've been unsuccescfully trying to catch up to the G Fund ever since. Even the SS doesn't seem to be working this year. I feel like I jinxed it.

 

[Happy_Trails]

Agreed,

So far, if your were caught in the late July side fully invested...the volatility gave you 2 good opportunities at take back 5-7% back on each rally. So even if you lost 18% in the slide...you could have EASILY made back 10-14% of it by now by:

1) Recognizing that the "Death Cross of the 50/200 EMA's puts the large scale picture in Bear territory and as Tom says, that calls for selling the rallies as they start to fade.

2) Go back in when you approach the recent lows. This of course is much harder to time.

3) Sell the rally again, without letting greed become your enemy. That is hard for many who want to squeeze out one last percent from the rally. Recognize whats driving the bear market now. Its partly us, mostly Europe. Gotta take one eye off the charts and put it on the world news.

Coolhand made an interesting point about people EXPECTING a turnaround. In a bear market, at some point, that doesn't happen anymore. Gotta be ready for that.

I love this post - great strategy going forward. The scariest part is that the rallies are going to stop and the bear is going to have it's day, so be careful, try not to be greedy, and sell the rally when/if it happens.

 

[Birchtree]

Remember the bull likes to take as few people to the upside as possible and likes to leave the bears from recognizing the prevailing trend. I doubt that we are in a bear market regardless of the death cross.