2011 Personal Performance Report
YTD Stats: Updated 31 Aug, 43% of days spent in stocks, 57% days in the G-Fund. Of days invested 56% positive, 44% negative. Average daily gain
-.01%
MTD Stats: Jan .15% -- Feb 4.71% -- Mar 3.49% -- Apr 3.40% -- May .65% -- Jun 2.78% -- Jul
-4.49% -- Aug
-11.32%
31 Aug: IFT 40G/20F/40S One of my goals is to start off each month invested, that was the only goal I met this month. Without confirmed buy/sell signals I decided to spread the risk across the G/F/S funds I don't normally like to do this but these aren't normal times. I need to average over 3.4% monthly to meet my 12% goal, not easy to do, but not impossible either. No risk no reward...
12 Aug: IFT 100% G-Fund. 16 miserable days in the S-Fund, throwing in the towel on the weak dead cat bounce. Lost as much as
-22.21% exiting the trade with a final loss of
-15.78% erased 140 trading days of gains in 16 days. A number of factors lead to this decline.
1. Had been under-performing for the month, while others were making gains, I allowed my competitive self to overrule logic.
2. Didn't respect the trend. The trend had broken down and had not re-established an uptrend.
3. Thought it was better to ride it down than to get out and absorb a 5% loss. Many times by being patient you can work your way out of a bad entry, this was clearly not one of those times. With my substantial edge I felt I could ride it out...wrong.
4. Followed 1 of my systems into the market, but delayed the entry by 1 day. Indecisiveness has no room in a system. That mistake cost me a 1% gain I never earned, plus I didn't follow the rule of that system where you must exit 4-7 days after the system triggers a buy. Had I followed the system correctly I still would have lost money but would have lost -4.62%
5. Pigs get slaughtered, I was a pig and deserved every bit of what happened on this trade.
As the month finishes out my plan is to get back to my main goals for the year, finishing with a 12% gain, nothing fancy just work my way back one IFT at a time. Because of where I am I'll need to take on some additional risk, as a result I may not post my decisions until after the noon cutoff. If I make some bad decisions I don't want anyone else to share in my misery, hope you understand.
21 July: IFT 100% S-Fund. 15 trading days in the G-Fund. A number of factors contributed to my decision to enter back into stocks. Having been in the G-Fund over 60% of the time my daily average fell from .14% to .12% My current objective is to maintain a minimum .12% daily average so I can stay on target for a 30% yearly gain. Ambitious yes, impossible no. I'd also like to start off the next month invested, it's been a while since I've done that and it's my preference. One of my systems I call the Quadracycle triggered a partial buy on 19 Jul. Because it was a partial buy, I chose not to enter stocks the next day, but to wait an extra day. I've also stated I believe the 18 Jul low is going to hold. If this were the case, then the markets have established both a higher high & a higher low, meaning we've established an uptrend. I expect the next wave to peak in the 1st week of August, based on previous price history. As always, the odds favor me being wrong more than right, escaping with a profit is more important than entering next month in stocks, so I'll play it day by day.
Trading Journal: JTH 2011
