JTH's Account Talk

[JTH]

Have a limit order in place (for the day only) for SIRI (Sirus Radio) at 1.64

 

[Bquat]

You may have noticed downside momentum has decreased, this reminds me of what a rounded bottom will look like where we trade flat for awhile, test the lows one more time, than rocket up, fade the handle, then spring from there. Anything can happen, but i do consider this to be a plausable scenerio based on the current price action. Anyone else?

Last ten days look like a rounded top or inverse cup and handle forming but I always see things that may or may not be there.

 

[FAB1]

Fade the handle?? And I thought I knew all the jargon...

 

[JTH]

Fade the handle?? And I thought I knew all the jargon...

Fade the handle on the cup and handle, meaning the handle fades (pulls back) but it's a fake pullback or springboard where prices rally off the fade.

 

[JTH]

Last ten days look like a rounded top or inverse cup and handle forming but I always see things that may or may not be there.

You are correct, so let me clarify, my reference was for the last 6 trading days where momentum as decreased (it's all subjective.)

 

[PEP]

Have a limit order in place (for the day only) for SIRI (Sirus Radio) at 1.64

Is this the only stock you pick up and then hold for a few days?

 

[jkenjohnson]

Is this the only stock you pick up and then hold for a few days?

What is your target? $1.93 again?

 

[JTH]

Is this the only stock you pick up and then hold for a few days?

It would seem so, I'm working with the "less is more" concept working few positions, scalping what I can when I can, seeking to not be invested for too long. I happen to like SIRI because it's popular, cheap, and traded heavily, I've been using it for a long time, so I know it better than other stocks.

What is your target? $1.93 again?

This time about 1.80 (not dead set on a PO yet, it depends where the bottom is, because I may be buying more if it goes lower to the next level.

 

[JTH]

It would seem so, I'm working with the "less is more" concept working few positions, scalping what I can when I can, seeking to not be invested for too long. I happen to like SIRI because it's popular, cheap, and traded heavily, I've been using it for a long time, so I know it better than other stocks.



This time about 1.80 (not dead set on a PO yet, it depends where the bottom is, because I may be buying more if it goes lower to the next level.

SIRI's low today was 1.66 which means my 1.64 limit order didn't get filled. I'll put in another 1.64 limit order tonight, it will be good for the day only. Sometimes I miss a limit order by a penny, then miss the ensuring rally...

View attachment 15083

 

[JTH]

2011 Personal Performance Report

YTD Stats: Updated 12 Aug, 46% of days spent in stocks, 54% days in the G-Fund. Of days invested 59% positive, 41% negative. Average daily gain -.01%

MTD Stats: Jan .15% -- Feb 4.71% -- Mar 3.49% -- Apr 3.40% -- May .65% -- Jun 2.78% -- Jul -4.49% -- Aug -10.94% MTD

12 Aug: IFT 100% G-Fund. 16 miserable days in the S-Fund, throwing in the towel on the weak dead cat bounce. Lost as much as -22.21% exiting the trade with a final loss of -15.78% erased 140 trading days of gains in 16 days. A number of factors lead to this decline.

1. Had been under-performing for the month, while others were making gains, I allowed my competitive self to overrule logic.

2. Didn't respect the trend. The trend had broken down and had not re-established an uptrend.

3. Thought it was better to ride it down than to get out and absorb a 5% loss. Many times by being patient you can work your way out of a bad entry, this was clearly not one of those times. With my substantial edge I felt I could ride it out...wrong.

4. Followed 1 of my systems into the market, but delayed the entry by 1 day. Indecisiveness has no room in a system. That mistake cost me a 1% gain I never earned, plus I didn't follow the rule of that system where you must exit 4-7 days after the system triggers a buy. Had I followed the system correctly I still would have lost money but would have lost -4.62%

5. Pigs get slaughtered, I was a pig and deserved every bit of what happened on this trade.

As the month finishes out my plan is to get back to my main goals for the year, finishing with a 12% gain, nothing fancy just work my way back one IFT at a time. Because of where I am I'll need to take on some additional risk, as a result I may not post my decisions until after the noon cutoff. If I make some bad decisions I don't want anyone else to share in my misery, hope you understand.

21 July: IFT 100% S-Fund. 15 trading days in the G-Fund. A number of factors contributed to my decision to enter back into stocks. Having been in the G-Fund over 60% of the time my daily average fell from .14% to .12% My current objective is to maintain a minimum .12% daily average so I can stay on target for a 30% yearly gain. Ambitious yes, impossible no. I'd also like to start off the next month invested, it's been a while since I've done that and it's my preference. One of my systems I call the Quadracycle triggered a partial buy on 19 Jul. Because it was a partial buy, I chose not to enter stocks the next day, but to wait an extra day. I've also stated I believe the 18 Jul low is going to hold. If this were the case, then the markets have established both a higher high & a higher low, meaning we've established an uptrend. I expect the next wave to peak in the 1st week of August, based on previous price history. As always, the odds favor me being wrong more than right, escaping with a profit is more important than entering next month in stocks, so I'll play it day by day.

Trading Journal: JTH 2011

 

[JTH]

SIRI's low today was 1.66 which means my 1.64 limit order didn't get filled. I'll put in another 1.64 limit order tonight, it will be good for the day only. Sometimes I miss a limit order by a penny, then miss the ensuring rally...

View attachment 15083

Limit order got filled at 1.64 at this point I'll sit back and relax, I may take anouther entry at 1.55

 

[JTH]

AGG is setting up such a clean & measured pullback, it looks poised to breakout on the Benny Pop this Friday.

View attachment 15088

 

[JamesE]

You're expecting F fund to go up and equities drop after "The" speech Friday?

 

[JTH]

No, but I think bonds are expecting that if Benny QE3s, if he doesn't then bonds should dump even more.

 

[JTH]

Re: short term memory

Laying out all the evidence before me, I don't see anything compelling enough to convince me this market is ready to give us a legitimate rally. The retracements, internals, trends, on the daily charts are all the proof I need to wait this out and not lose any sleep over it. I'll be quick to change my mind when it's time.

 

[amoeba]

Re: short term memory

Laying out all the evidence before me, I don't see anything compelling enough to convince me this market is ready to give us a legitimate rally. The retracements, internals, trends, on the daily charts are all the proof I need to wait this out and not lose any sleep over it. I'll be quick to change my mind when it's time.

You mean, when job claims drop under 300K as a 4 wk running average, GDP exceeds 2.5%, new jobs >200K, gold <1,200$/oz, the 20/50 ema's broadly exceeded (I,S,C, and others)? More?

I'm in hibernation. Someone else can throw money into the TSP equity funds, or toasted bank stocks like BAC.

You first.

 

[JTH]

Re: short term memory

Laying out all the evidence before me, I don't see anything compelling enough to convince me this market is ready to give us a legitimate rally. The retracements, internals, trends, on the daily charts are all the proof I need to wait this out and not lose any sleep over it. I'll be quick to change my mind when it's time.

You mean, when job claims drop under 300K as a 4 wk running average, GDP exceeds 2.5%, new jobs >200K, gold <1,200$/oz, the 20/50 ema's broadly exceeded (I,S,C, and others)? More?

I'm in hibernation. Someone else can throw money into the TSP equity funds, or toasted bank stocks like BAC.

You first.

I'm not an economist, I don't factor any of the items you mentioned, just price.

 

[JTH]

Re: short term memory

With 1 IFT left I'll be sitting out tomorrow but would like to use an IFT sometime next week (bonds or stocks) before the month closes out. In regards to stocks my interpretation of the charts tell me to stay out, if you look at the retracements within both the major downward channel and the recent dead cat bounce channel, in both instances we've failed to recover half the loss. My indicators are what I call strayed, meaning they are not in alignment with each other, sort of flailing on their own not working together but working against each other.

This is fairly typical in an oscillating market and when you compound this with an established downtrend on the Transports, and the lack of a higher high on the Wilshire 4500 & S&P 500 you can see the argument for lower prices to be had. We also have time involved with historical cycles hinting at potential turn dates, if we can align time, price, and pattern in sequence it could serve as just the catalyst we need to turn this around. But here's the biggest and perhaps the most imporatnt thing we need yet don't have, a functional government working for us...

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[Bquat]

Let's just agree to agree here.

 

[Gumby]

Re: short term memory

.. But here's the biggest and perhaps the most imporatnt thing we need yet don't have, a functional government working for us...

That is so true..... They are functioning for a select few....... and the working man is not included.