JTH's Account Talk

[JTH]

There is a probability I'll make an entry tomorrow, dependent on the price action. These levels have been difficult to gauge for me, my mojo is MIA. Large caps led today, but if you look at the Transports & Wilshire 4500 you'll notice today put in a lower low & lower high. Still, I have been impressed by the substantial decrease in volatility with an appearance of normalcy returning to these markets.

Thanks SQB, little ones are so precious! No entry for me today based on the price action, I'll sit this out and look for buying opportunities outside of TSP.

 

[JTH]

From 10 Aug 2011


Sold at 1.93. 11.57% profit (it was a heavier position than I normally take.)

I'd say my exit out of SIRI was rather well timed, Fk U Mr. Long...

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[JTH]

Re: short term memory

In my 2011 Projections Blog I forecast what I considered to be key levels. However, under these circumstances, sizing up the market, I wonder why anyone would have reason to believe we are going to create a double bottom off the SPX 1100 area, it was a weak dead cat bounce, that's your fair warning. If this 1100 level breaks, than expect a test of the 1043 area, if that breaks look for 1015, then 963-950. The point is keep looking for the downside-trend until the market proves otherwise. Bear market rules are in play, capital preservation is more important than risk.

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[Sensei]

Re: short term memory

In my 2011 Projections Blog I forecast what I considered to be key levels. However, under these circumstances, sizing up the market, I wonder why anyone would have reason to believe we are going to create a double bottom off the SPX 1100 area, it was a weak dead cat bounce, that's your fair warning. If this 1100 level breaks, than expect a test of the 1043 area, if that breaks look for 1015, then 963-950. The point is keep looking for the downside-trend until the market proves otherwise. Bear market rules are in play, capital preservation is more important than risk.

In looking at 5 and 10 year charts of the S&P, other than early 2009, there don't really seem to be many V shaped bounces off the bottoms. More of a leveling off before climbing higher. I've been riding this crash the whole way down, but seriously considering jumping out and waiting for a little while.

 

[KevinD]

Re: short term memory

In looking at 5 and 10 year charts of the S&P, other than early 2009, there don't really seem to be many V shaped bounces off the bottoms. More of a leveling off before climbing higher. I've been riding this crash the whole way down, but seriously considering jumping out and waiting for a little while.

Right there with ya. Not sure how much more I can take.

 

[JTH]

Re: short term memory

In looking at 5 and 10 year charts of the S&P, other than early 2009, there don't really seem to be many V shaped bounces off the bottoms. More of a leveling off before climbing higher. I've been riding this crash the whole way down, but seriously considering jumping out and waiting for a little while.

Right there with ya. Not sure how much more I can take.

I'm in the same trench as you, already having absorbed an 18% locked in loss. Now it's about share accumulation, absorbing as many shares as I can before the next ride up. I'm optimsitic money can be made on both sides of the trade.

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Re: short term memory

...before the next ride up.

But when is that going to be, and how much lower can we go before we get there? Those are tough questions... :nuts:

 

[JTH]

Re: short term memory

But when is that going to be, and how much lower can we go before we get there? Those are tough questions... :nuts:

1015 looks yummy

 

[twohorsefarm]

Did you look at RIMM?

 

[pokerstar629]

Looks like all the big cap tech companies are gobbling up mobile phone makers for their patent portfolios.

 

[Appatite]

Re: short term memory

I'm in the same trench as you, already having absorbed an 18% locked in loss. Now it's about share accumulation, absorbing as many shares as I can before the next ride up. I'm optimsitic money can be made on both sides of the trade.

My new theory. Accumulate more shares while preserving Capitol.

 

[JTH]

Did you look at RIMM?

Looks like all the big cap tech companies are gobbling up mobile phone makers for their patent portfolios.

Yes, Fast Money folks talk about RIM all the time, it's too rich for my blood, it's trading at a 5 year low, but that doesn't mean it can't trade at a 10 year low. Perhaps they need a merger to take them back up to the previous level.

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[Warrenlm]

Re: short term memory

My new theory. Accumulate more shares while preserving Capitol.

? I must be too dense to get the joke. ?

 

[Taller]

Yes, Fast Money folks talk about RIM all the time, it's too rich for my blood, it's trading at a 5 year low, but that doesn't mean it can't trade at a 10 year low. Perhaps they need a merger to take them back up to the previous level.

View attachment 15046

Is it time to go into the F fund.

 

[Bquat]

Re: short term memory

1015 looks yummy

My vote 915. I even made a simple chart for you.

 

[Appatite]

Re: short term memory

? I must be too dense to get the joke. ?

Stupid f-ing auto correct.

 

[amoeba]

Re: short term memory

I'm in the same trench as you, already having absorbed an 18% locked in loss. Now it's about share accumulation, absorbing as many shares as I can before the next ride up. I'm optimsitic money can be made on both sides of the trade.

You haven't locked in anything; you've limited your losses; you're only down a few percent for the year-to-date; and you have another IFT to use (or NOT!!!) if the opportunity warrants.

Be aware that even with the selling thus far - our TSP autotracker shows roughly only a quarter of the members in 50% or more G/F. There's alot more that is being held, and occasionally ventured into this downdraft.

Things can change quickly - and in either direction - but I don't think this time they will. Patience, Wisdom, and acting on them, shall rule.

Out.

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Re: short term memory

My vote 915. I even made a simple chart for you.

A gloomy chart...

 

[JTH]

Tough market to trade, the bounce was weak and I consider myself fortunate to have caught about 80% of that bounce before ejecting. For the most part I am a trend trader and this is a wildly volatile period, damn near untradeable within TPS's confines. I have nothing to offer except to tell you I'll be low key for awhile, sizing up this market as best I can. I need to determine how I'm going to adjust to a bear market if we should break below 1100. I do have a 12.30% edge on the S-Fund and 1 IFT left, I may use it at the end of the month so I can start off September invested. I will consider an entry into the F-Fund if bonds are holding up well. It's one thing to take a loss, but another thing to go from 16% to -% that is plain stupid.

 

[JTH]

You may have noticed downside momentum has decreased, this reminds me of what a rounded bottom will look like where we trade flat for awhile, test the lows one more time, than rocket up, fade the handle, then spring from there. Anything can happen, but i do consider this to be a plausable scenerio based on the current price action. Anyone else?