JTH's Account Talk

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JTH said:
I don't understand why there's an impression this crossover isn't important. from 2001-2011 had you gone long on each of the 6 Golden Crosses you would have had 5 winning trades, a 70% profit, that's 7% a year, that ain't bad. Had you gone both long & short you'd have 7 of 11 winning trades and be up 113.39% with a 11.3% year average.
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The articles I read had to do with the Death Crosses, not the Golden Crosses. Not sure if your statistics above would be the same for
Death Crosses (newbie here). In reference to Death Cross, the articles did say they were important, just that you shouldn't assume it would turn into a bear flag or a bull rally because it could go either way. Goes back to those other articles that tell you not to rely on just one indicator...That's all I was trying to say. :o By the way, those statistics are impressive..
 
jpcavin said:
The articles I read had to do with the Death Crosses, not the Golden Crosses. Not sure if your statistics above would be the same for
Death Crosses (newbie here). In reference to Death Cross, the articles did say they were important, just that you shouldn't assume it would turn into a bear flag or a bull rally because it could go either way. Goes back to those other articles that tell you not to rely on just one indicator...That's all I was trying to say. :o By the way, those statistics are impressive..
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There's a great deal of one-liner mis-information sound-bites out there, these news clips never seem to find the time to lay things out in their entirety because poor Joe public has a spastic attention span. That's why I set out on my own and encourage everyone to "prove it" themselves, so many of those supposed money managers are just as (if not more) stupid than we are. In the end the 50/200 MA is what we make it, we give it the power it holds over us, these are the most important moving averages because (in unison) we think therefore it is and low and behold our perception becomes reality.
 
short term memory

JTH said:
Yes he is correct, during the last Death Cross you would have missed a 154 point rally and not gained 15.24%, however he failed to mention during the death cross previous to that you would have avoided a 588.24 point 39.62% decline, he's cherry picking.



I don't understand why there's an impression this crossover isn't important. from 2001-2011 had you gone long on each of the 6 Golden Crosses you would have had 5 winning trades, a 70% profit, that's 7% a year, that ain't bad. Had you gone both long & short you'd have 7 of 11 winning trades and be up 113.39% with a 11.3% year average.
Click to expand...

It's because people don't have a long term memory - and think more about lost opportunities for gain, than avoided losses - Thx for reminding us - although some never listen (or too easily forget). Anyhow, volumes (and selling) are picking up. The top 30 on the tracker are currently about 50:50 in G/F:C/S/I.
 
I was watching an analyst on TV last night that was talking about the wild swings in prices associated with computer trading by the Wall Street firms. He said that the algorithms will only get faster in the future and 400 point swings will occur more often and faster than they have in the past. I don't like this :mad:.
 
jkenjohnson said:
I was watching an analyst on TV last night that was talking about the wild swings in prices associated with computer trading by the Wall Street firms. He said that the algorithms will only get faster in the future and 400 point swings will occur more often and faster than they have in the past. I don't like this :mad:.
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Makes sense and if you think about it, volatility can be very profitable for the trader running on algorithms. Sure makes our job with a noon deadline tough. We need, not only, to see through the noise for an intermediate term direction but also find a way to make sure our noon moves don't get outfoxed by end of day algorithm "noise".
 
jkenjohnson said:
I was watching an analyst on TV last night that was talking about the wild swings in prices associated with computer trading by the Wall Street firms. He said that the algorithms will only get faster in the future and 400 point swings will occur more often and faster than they have in the past. I don't like this :mad:.
Click to expand...

Nor do I. The TSP board should (but won't) revisit the transfer limit or at least give us a real time exit price. This new trading environment will impact the buy and hold stratgey. (imo)
 
"Nor do I. The TSP board should (but won't) revisit the transfer limit or at least give us a real time exit price. This new trading environment will impact the buy and hold stratgey. (imo)" QOUTE

with the noon deadline its like playing with a half a deck of cards or worse. there noon deadline only lines us up for the turkey shoot. changes happen in the last 3 hours of the market. the board should at least give us the whole trading day till 4 pm.
 
It's true that what we decide are important indices and indicators become important, but maybe it's even more accurate to say that what ever the whales (GS, JPM, etc) use as important triggers are the best bet. The big kids move the market and we're along for the ride. Get their internal handbook on trading triggers and you have the golden goose.

It's a shame that the job of "market maker" has gone the way of tv repairman. Those humans were capable of using common sense and when they matched buyers to sellers a Flash Crash situation was avoidable. Now that computers have replaced the humans and "eliminated the chance of human error" there's no going back. I don't know that computer software can program out every possible glitch - and they certainly didn't in May 2010.
 
MrBowl said:
It's true that what we decide are important indices and indicators become important, but maybe it's even more accurate to say that what ever the whales (GS, JPM, etc) use as important triggers are the best bet. The big kids move the market and we're along for the ride. Get their internal handbook on trading triggers and you have the golden goose.

It's a shame that the job of "market maker" has gone the way of tv repairman. Those humans were capable of using common sense and when they matched buyers to sellers a Flash Crash situation was avoidable. Now that computers have replaced the humans and "eliminated the chance of human error" there's no going back. I don't know that computer software can program out every possible glitch - and they certainly didn't in May 2010.
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In the end if you have enough money you can push any stock to any price you see fit...
 
There is a probability I'll make an entry tomorrow, dependent on the price action. These levels have been difficult to gauge for me, my mojo is MIA. Large caps led today, but if you look at the Transports & Wilshire 4500 you'll notice today put in a lower low & lower high. Still, I have been impressed by the substantial decrease in volatility with an appearance of normalcy returning to these markets.
 
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