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JTH's Account Talk
- Thread starter JTH
- Start date
Happy_Trails
TSP Pro
- Reaction score
- 14
Live to fight another day, Jason. I got defensive myself - 50S, 50G. Hopefully, I won't get crushed on Monday.
polarbear
Market Tracker
- Reaction score
- 8
I agree with JTH, MasTa, and Happy Trails, I got out today (back into the garage) intending to get back in some time next week and thereby hopefully gain a few percentage points against my loss -- we'll see. My thinking:
1) as Tom pointed out today, a bear flag needed a sharp breakout. We got a breakout, but it's not sharp, it stopped at resistance at 1187. Good for me, I guess; Similar remark from Tony Caldaro, "elliott wave lives". For sure, you don't want to go with what someone else says; there are hundreds of voices and websites out there pointed in different directions. You choose.
2) I am disregarding seasonality, but with mild reservations, but only mild ones;
3) I see some slack forward in this wacky lunar correlation business (buy on FM, hey, after a few days, maybe); anyway, it's not so tight a correlation, just so-so anyway;
4) I am counting on this semi-euphoria to end or just take a break w/o going too much higher up before it does so;
5) maybe there's something to an impending death cross happening now or soon with going to negative slope of both, but I don't know what;
6) losing so much in, I don't think I can miss a whole lot out . . . If it looks that way, I can jump back in. Well, that's my intention -- to jump back in, but under the cool controled situation of benefitting from a little down first; we'll see;
7) I'm in a tight spot and this calls for a radical move. I want to recupe my losses, and the sooner the better.
We could have all saved our a**es if we had listened to the wise voices in July saying market inflection underway, get defensive. I will go back over my notes and mark which advisers got it right and which didn't. I didn't, I lulled myself, I guess.
Snatching defeat from the jaws of victory seems to be one of my stronger points. Gotto do something about that. Three years of this **** is too much on top of too much.
1) as Tom pointed out today, a bear flag needed a sharp breakout. We got a breakout, but it's not sharp, it stopped at resistance at 1187. Good for me, I guess; Similar remark from Tony Caldaro, "elliott wave lives". For sure, you don't want to go with what someone else says; there are hundreds of voices and websites out there pointed in different directions. You choose.
2) I am disregarding seasonality, but with mild reservations, but only mild ones;
3) I see some slack forward in this wacky lunar correlation business (buy on FM, hey, after a few days, maybe); anyway, it's not so tight a correlation, just so-so anyway;
4) I am counting on this semi-euphoria to end or just take a break w/o going too much higher up before it does so;
5) maybe there's something to an impending death cross happening now or soon with going to negative slope of both, but I don't know what;
6) losing so much in, I don't think I can miss a whole lot out . . . If it looks that way, I can jump back in. Well, that's my intention -- to jump back in, but under the cool controled situation of benefitting from a little down first; we'll see;
7) I'm in a tight spot and this calls for a radical move. I want to recupe my losses, and the sooner the better.
We could have all saved our a**es if we had listened to the wise voices in July saying market inflection underway, get defensive. I will go back over my notes and mark which advisers got it right and which didn't. I didn't, I lulled myself, I guess.
Snatching defeat from the jaws of victory seems to be one of my stronger points. Gotto do something about that. Three years of this **** is too much on top of too much.
jkenjohnson
Market Veteran
- Reaction score
- 24
Interesting. I thought about getting out too, but I only have one IFT. Damn the TSP Board for limiting our IFT'S.
polarbear
Market Tracker
- Reaction score
- 8
Being out all of August would not be so good if a healthy rally -- even a moderate-sized one -- occurs at that time. One might have to ride it out if a revisiting of the bottom occurs, but that would precede a healthy rally, most people think. I think this is Birchtree's plan. One could do worse. I think we seriously will not go down below 1000, and probably only back to 1100 and then up to, say, 1200-1250, but this really is conjecture. I am not the swami.
I have only one other thought here. It seems Euroland is too quiet. That means it may be ready to erupt again. It is a wild mouse.
Just wait for the S&P to downgrade France. That will be a real how-do-you-do. And they may not, I don't know. They may just have it in for us ...and Dillard's. Good luck to everyone.
I have only one other thought here. It seems Euroland is too quiet. That means it may be ready to erupt again. It is a wild mouse.
Just wait for the S&P to downgrade France. That will be a real how-do-you-do. And they may not, I don't know. They may just have it in for us ...and Dillard's. Good luck to everyone.
well,
I am a bit surprised, but you do have some dry powder if the market fails - I frankly think it will move a bit higher next week......I see the S-fund challenging 640 (the 20 ema), and the C-fund moving a bit closer to 1,210-1220 (short of it's 20 ema). Beyond that, there may be an opportunity to buy in lower, which you have (an IFT remaining), and I don't (another story - ripped off by TSP's computer delay apparently, but to my advantage, so I'm not contesting it).
And volumes were notably light on friday......but not historically light. The light days usually are updays, and the heavy days - - - - and I think monday will be one, are often downdays. And I'd put it at something like 50:50 for 8/15.
Good luck. You can't win them all (i.e., no negative months). Gee - when will I have a positive month?
I am a bit surprised, but you do have some dry powder if the market fails - I frankly think it will move a bit higher next week......I see the S-fund challenging 640 (the 20 ema), and the C-fund moving a bit closer to 1,210-1220 (short of it's 20 ema). Beyond that, there may be an opportunity to buy in lower, which you have (an IFT remaining), and I don't (another story - ripped off by TSP's computer delay apparently, but to my advantage, so I'm not contesting it).
And volumes were notably light on friday......but not historically light. The light days usually are updays, and the heavy days - - - - and I think monday will be one, are often downdays. And I'd put it at something like 50:50 for 8/15.
Good luck. You can't win them all (i.e., no negative months). Gee - when will I have a positive month?
JTH
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 1,006
Admittedly I haven't updated my trading journal yet.
How do you put into the words "lost 18.39% because I was an arrogant SOB who didn't want to take a losing trade this year?" I'm not upset, I still plan on spanking every one of you on the tracker...
Anyways there's a probability I'll be going back into the market this Monday. I wanted to sit out the weekend and Monday, and give myself some time to examine the charts from the outside.
How do you put into the words "lost 18.39% because I was an arrogant SOB who didn't want to take a losing trade this year?" I'm not upset, I still plan on spanking every one of you on the tracker...
Anyways there's a probability I'll be going back into the market this Monday. I wanted to sit out the weekend and Monday, and give myself some time to examine the charts from the outside.
Bquat
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 613
That is a good question.
Are you waiting for 1200 S&P to break.
Give me 7.3 min heads up since were both out looking in.
OK, I go get more coffee. Billy will calm down and watch. I myself think we'er at an important level and just can't commit on my own.
JTH
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 1,006
I'm wondering why the Transports are not overperforming over the other indexes as is the usual case. We show the appearance of losing momentum. I'll sit today out and see how this market finishes, I'm in no rush.
View attachment 14996
View attachment 14996
Bquat
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 613
Thanks JTH for the early decision. This was a critical level for me and I was just asking because I thought it would take it's time at this level untill IFT time and would of jumped if a high base was forming and if you jumped. I'll buy strength but not a dip under 1257.
JTH
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 1,006
No problem, 1200 is a key level, if we fail to capture it folks will take notice and this wouldn't bode well. Still, it is an up day with a higher intraday high & low, we need to maintain that. If we get a lower intraday swing low, it will be an outside day, not good under these circumstances.
View attachment 14997
jkenjohnson
Market Veteran
- Reaction score
- 24
If we keep this up. I may recoup my losses.
