JTH's Account Talk

[BigJohn]

I will keep my fingers crossed for you JTH...I hope everyone makes a little cash today.

 

[Lobo]

JTH...I want to go in, but feel like I'm "chasing" the run up. What has made your decision for you today?

As I signed in to post, I now see your chart above....I assume your move is off the "bull flag"?

Lobo

 

[JTH]

JTH...I want to go in, but feel like I'm "chasing" the run up. What has made your decision for you today?

As I signed in to post, I now see your chart above....I assume your move is off the "bull flag"?

Lobo

Nope, not off the bull flag, I haven't been trading off chart patterns this year. I did have one system post a buy on 19 Jul, aside from that this is a momentum-based play, with an additonal EoM rally factored in. I don't have definitive evidence to discount the bears, but I do believe prices are flat-bullish and I'm willing to accept some risk here.

 

[Birchtree]

Ya, there is no worse feeling than sitting at the train station watching the Grand Trunk pull away and gaining momentum. If I had any money I'd chase Ferdinand all day. But I'm getting closer to accessing flower power.

 

[JTH]

I will keep my fingers crossed for you JTH...I hope everyone makes a little cash today.

Looks like the majority of IFTs today were exits to the sidelines, perhaps I'm the one running into the burning building. In case anyone is curious, I expect this IFT to take me into the 1st week of next month.

 

[jkenjohnson]

I think I missed the boat with my TSP this time (sitting in the G) but UPRO is up up and away.

 

[Appatite]

Looks like the majority of IFTs today were exits to the sidelines, perhaps I'm the one running into the burning building. In case anyone is curious, I expect this IFT to take me into the 1st week of next month.

Then you must be expecting the Dow at plus 13,000 and the S&P at 1390 or there abouts?? This is a question of course.

 

[Handballer]

Thanks for all the info you provide us. I notice you IFTed today going 100% into the S fund. Why the - (0) on the comment line? I'm thinking I'll go all in the S fund tomorrow.

 

[JTH]

Then you must be expecting the Dow at plus 13,000 and the S&P at 1390 or there abouts?? This is a question of course.

My upside target is May's high. Now bear in mind I have no problem exiting with a profit of any kind, so long as it outperforms the G-Fund. I really have no idea what I'm doing...

 

[jkenjohnson]

My upside target is May's high. Now bear in mind I have no problem exiting with a profit of any kind, so long as it outperforms the G-Fund. I really have no idea what I'm doing...

That's about a 3.5% gain. I hope it plays out.

 

[Birchtree]

Now that's what I like - a man that can profess humility. If I hit my May high I'm back in the flower power buying game. There is nothing like spending some one else's money. I think I'm safe from any interest rate increase for two more years.

 

[JTH]

That's about a 3.5% gain. I hope it plays out.

Now that's what I like - a man that can profess humility. If I hit my May high I'm back in the flower power buying game. There is nothing like spending some one else's money. I think I'm safe from any interest rate increase for two more years.

That's an Aug week 1 target, really just an on-the-fly sort of thing. .

 

[JTH]

I have been struggling with tight stops. I feel your pain. How do you determine your stop price?

On that position, I felt it wasn't working out nor was going to within the timeframe I wanted, so I eye-balled the stop looking to prevent another 52 week low. Lost 25% over 5 months, but because of position sizing it wasn't all that painful. I'm sitting in 2/3rds cash.

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

On that position, I felt it wasn't working out nor was going to within the timeframe I wanted, so I eye-balled the stop looking to prevent another 52 week low. Lost 25% over 5 months, but because of position sizing it wasn't all that painful. I'm sitting in 2/3rds cash.

If you had to choose, would you put a stop at a portfolio percentage (pain threshold) or at the previous lower low on the chart (could also use a point where previous resistance became support)?

thanks

 

[JTH]

If you had to choose, would you put a stop at a portfolio percentage (pain threshold) or at the previous lower low on the chart (could also use a point where previous resistance became support)?

thanks

If the chart were in a clearly defined uptrend within a 6-month window, I'd choose sightly below the previous swing low. I'm willing to absorb a great deal of pain and only use stops, when I'm raising cash. I'll admit I haven't spent much time this year in my trading accounts, but that's going to change, that's why I'm raising cash.

 

[FAB1]

Looks like the majority of IFTs today were exits to the sidelines, perhaps I'm the one running into the burning building. In case anyone is curious, I expect this IFT to take me into the 1st week of next month.

So you went 100% S...but what do you think about a 50/50 C/S allocation or a 3-way split across equities?

I have one transfer left - but like you I would like to stay thru the end of the month.

 

[JTH]

So you went 100% S...but what do you think about a 50/50 C/S allocation or a 3-way split across equities?

I have one transfer left - but like you I would like to stay thru the end of the month.

I did a brief study once and found the majority of consistent AT winners chose 100% allocations. I myself have found I don't like to be torn between multiple positions, I find a single position gives me more conviction in my analysis. The I-Fund brings with it substantial risk that is difficult to analyze, therefore I'm avoiding it this year regardless if it's oversold. If you read my last blog, I go into some of these topics.

 

[amoeba]

My upside target is May's high. Now bear in mind I have no problem exiting with a profit of any kind, so long as it outperforms the G-Fund. I really have no idea what I'm doing...

Neither do I. Inasmuch as you haven't missed a gain on any move this year - quite a run - I just couldn't pull the trigger and may not tomorrow; I see it as all currency-based; it was fairly high volume for an up day.

Good luck.

 

[JTH]

Some charts to chew on, feel free to opine...

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[KevinD]

Tea set?

Coffee for 4?

Wishful thinking on my part?