JTH's Account Talk

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jkenjohnson said:
Futures are up. Looks like you may have made the correct call.
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Ooops. Futures are flat. It always kills me why these column writers make the call about the market or futures after either has moved. Well, the market was down because of the debt ceiling. Oh, earnings are up so the market is up. Oh, Greece debt worries are sending the market down. Do they just pull this crap out of their butt or what?
 
Someone had suggested I should be playing the F-fund instead of the G-Fund. Short-term postions in the F-Fund can yield mixed results and many of the trading systems I have that work well on stocks do not work as well on bonds. This year I've found I rather enjoy the sure money and stability that comes from the G-Fund. With some of the backtesting I've done with stocks, when I swithed the system to the F-Fund vs. the G-Fund the results didn't yield enough to warant taking on the addional risk. Just because it's a good time to exit stocks does not always mean it's a good time to enter bonds. Crunch the numbers and decide for yourself.
 
JTH said:
Someone had suggested I should be playing the F-fund instead of the G-Fund. Short-term postions in the F-Fund can yield mixed results and many of the trading systems I have that work well on stocks do not work as well on bonds. This year I've found I rather enjoy the sure money and stability that comes from the G-Fund. With some of the backtesting I've done with stocks, when I swithed the system to the F-Fund vs. the G-Fund the results didn't yield enough to warant taking on the addional risk. Just because it's a good time to exit stocks does not always mean it's a good time to enter bonds. Crunch the numbers and decide for yourself.
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I agree with you on this one. I have tried the F fund instead of the G and lost money every time. I just don't understand enought to trade the F fund.
 
Bonds are simple - they operate off negative psychology and that's why I never go near them even on dark nights.
 
JTH,
Was wondering if you would concur that bonds have entered a bull market? Price is now well above the 200 MA. Is this a fakeout or can bonds go higher? Just curious on your take on the current MARCON of bonds?
 
Birchtree said:
Bonds are simple - they operate off negative psychology and that's why I never go near them even on dark nights.
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Reminds me of Gold, there will come a day when it will be devalued too fast for the common investor to get out before they have lost most of it. We cannot underscore enough the importance of positon sizing. Back in May Silver lost over 37% in 6 days...

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I bought 15 one ounce gold coins back in 1983 for around $800 a piece - and that is all I want. Ever hear of Grant Wood or Louis Armstrong coins.
 
Birchtree said:
I bought 15 one ounce gold coins back in 1983 for around $800 a piece - and that is all I want. Ever hear of Grant Wood or Louis Armstrong coins.
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My son has some gold, I have some silver, but I'm not a collector per say. I'd much rather have bullets, let's call it a portable-metals play, for me they carry more intrinsic value.
 
jkenjohnson said:
Ooops. Futures are flat. It always kills me why these column writers make the call about the market or futures after either has moved. Well, the market was down because of the debt ceiling. Oh, earnings are up so the market is up. Oh, Greece debt worries are sending the market down. Do they just pull this crap out of their butt or what?
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Friday is usually a profit taking day.
 
mayday said:
Friday is usually a profit taking day.
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Staying in over the weekend is a risky proposition in this environment. That said, risk can have rewards. If you're wearing sticky pants it's time to make sure they are on tight! I want to see a breakout, but even sideways action today shows confidence in the air.
 
Some of the bearish views I've been reading are really cracking me up. I don't fear the postion I took, I took it for a multitude of reasons and I'm confident prices are going to meet/beat May's high by/within the 1st week of August. I could be wrong, but that doesn't mean I won't exit with some profit in the process.
 
JTH said:
Some of the bearish views I've been reading are really cracking me up. I don't fear the postion I took, I took it for a multitude of reasons and I'm confident prices are going to meet/beat May's high by/within the 1st week of August. I could be wrong, but that doesn't mean I won't exit with some profit in the process.
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Would you mind naming a few of your reasons for that prediction?
 
2011 Personal Performance Report

YTD Stats: Updated 22 July, 40% of days spent in stocks, 60% days in the G-Fund. Of days invested 61% positive, 39% negative. Average daily gain .12%

MTD Stats: Jan .15% -- Feb 4.71% -- Mar 3.49% -- Apr 3.40% -- May .65% -- Jun 2.78% -- Jul .44% MTD

21 July: IFT 100% S-Fund. 15 trading days in the G-Fund. A number of factors contributed to my decision to enter back into stocks. Having been in the G-Fund over 60% of the time my daily average fell from .14% to .12% My current objective is to maintain a minimum .12% daily average so I can stay on target for a 30% yearly gain. Ambitious yes, impossible no. I'd also like to start off the next month invested, it's been a while since I've done that and it's my preference. One of my systems I call the Quadracycle triggered a partial buy on 19 Jul. Because it was a partial buy, I chose not to enter stocks the next day, but to wait an extra day. I've also stated I believe the 18 Jul low is going to hold. If this were the case, then the markets have established both a higher high & a higher low, meaning we've established an uptrend. I expect the next wave to peak in the 1st week of August, based on previous price history. As always, the odds favor me being wrong more than right, escaping with a profit is more important than entering next month in stocks, so I'll play it day by day.

Trading Journal: JTH 2011
 
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JTH: HAPPY BIRTHDAY AND MANY MORE!!!! I am hanging till Friday 29th. Day before the New Moon. No Pain No Gain.
 
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