JTH's Account Talk

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Happy Trails said:
Interesting. Well, so far, we have the up day. Let's see what tomorrow brings, hopefully not the scenario you are outlining. :)
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Well my friend, it's just an uneducated guess, nobody can predict prices with any real certianty. Like I tell me wife (when she's happy I made a good trade) I can't predict the direction of prices, I can only predict how I will react to the direction of prices. :)
 
JTH said:
Well my friend, it's just an uneducated guess, nobody can predict prices with any real certianty. Like I tell me wife (when she's happy I made a good trade) I can't predict the direction of prices, I can only predict how I will react to the direction of prices. :)
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VERY well said...
 
Expounding on last night's charts, once again the S-Fund's pink line has shown to be a critical line in the sand. Within the yellow circle you can see we did two things. #1 we closed with a sloppy tweezers's bottom which is bullish, and #2 we closed below the pink trendline which is bearish.
View attachment 10926



Here's another important factor to consider, oil. Again, within the yellow circle we see another sloppy tweezers's bottom, so ask your self this. Can both oil & stocks go up at the same time, when both are trading within 85% of their 52-week highs?
View attachment 10927


No plans for an IFT, I need more data.
 
JTH,
I haven't seen the selling necessary to put in a bottom yet. I still think we may test the bottom of the channel on your charts. Time will tell. Great charts! 14U.:)
 
JTH said:
Well my friend, it's just an uneducated guess, nobody can predict prices with any real certianty. Like I tell me wife (when she's happy I made a good trade) I can't predict the direction of prices, I can only predict how I will react to the direction of prices. :)
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Thanks, JTH. Your analysis is appreciated and respected. :)
 
Thanks guys :)


One last thing for everyone to consider. The Wilshire 4500 (S-Fund) has put in 6 intraday lower lows in a row off the recent top. It could end up being 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, or 12, lower lows we just don't know. What I do know is, it's not a bad idea to wait for this process to break this rhythm, before looking for an entry.
 
JTH said:
Thanks guys :)


One last thing for everyone to consider. The Wilshire 4500 (S-Fund) has put in 6 intraday lower lows in a row off the recent top. It could end up being 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, or 12, lower lows we just don't know. What I do know is, it's not a bad idea to wait for this process to break this rhythm, before looking for an entry.
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So you are now an advocate of the rhythm method??
 
JTH said:
Thanks guys :)


One last thing for everyone to consider. The Wilshire 4500 (S-Fund) has put in 6 intraday lower lows in a row off the recent top. It could end up being 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, or 12, lower lows we just don't know. What I do know is, it's not a bad idea to wait for this process to break this rhythm, before looking for an entry.
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No, Thank You

I really enjoy seeing your charts and would be happy for a turn up now Please. Thank You.:)
 
JTH said:
Thanks guys :)


One last thing for everyone to consider. The Wilshire 4500 (S-Fund) has put in 6 intraday lower lows in a row off the recent top. It could end up being 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, or 12, lower lows we just don't know. What I do know is, it's not a bad idea to wait for this process to break this rhythm, before looking for an entry.
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But you didn't do that yourself (you went 25% in S-fund on 4/11/11) so is this a new revelation? rolling dice? averaging down? going against your own sentiment? other?

Enquiring minds want to know.....
 
amoeba said:
But you didn't do that yourself (you went 25% in S-fund on 4/11/11) so is this a new revelation? rolling dice? averaging down? going against your own sentiment? other?


Enquiring minds want to know.....
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That trade is outlined in my Journal, also, on 4/11/11 we were on our 3rd lower low, not the 6th, it was just overall advice for those thinking of jumping in today.

burrocrat said:
http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=311079&postcount=1154

It looks like you got a new nickname, cherrypicker.

Nice moves, what are you going to do next? And when might you do it?
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Not sure, never can tell, this year I'm riding like water. My overall trades for this month are outlined in my journal (also embedded in my signiture block.) 2011 Personal Performance Report: A trading journal outlining my thoughts on the markets as they exist in the present. Also, the latest statistical data concerning my IFTs. Updated after each IFT & Monthly.

Bquat said:
No, Thank You

I really enjoy seeing your charts and would be happy for a turn up now Please. Thank You.:)
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Me too, I don't know when it will happen, but I do know I'll work hard to identify when it does happen.

BigJohn said:
So you are now an advocate of the rhythm method??
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Oh my, I thought you were serious, I had to "google" that. Intersting concept, I'm not sure how well it works though...
 
FWM, sorry for the late reply, I had a lot of information to digest and wanted to give your comments some deeper consideration.

First I want to talk about volume in the "general sense." The other day I was watching CNBC and a trader came on and gave his take on volume. He acknowledged that he was going against the grain of what everyone was taught to believe when he said he no longer highly values volume as an indicator. Some time ago, I came to this conclusion myself, in that the game has changed. If we look at the S&P 500's monthly chart we can see volume was rising after the 2003 bottom, but off the 2009 bottom volume has been declining. With overal low volume across the indexes prices are more susceptible to manipulation. I've also found that volume-based indicators are not as relaible as I once thought they were. I'm not discounting the volume spikes you've pointed out, I'm just stating that I don't give volume the same weighted value I once did.
View attachment 10935

As for the 20/50/200 moving averages, I believe they are important because we make them important. I've not been using them much this year and they haven't factored into my trades. I have nothing against them, I just find they are too reactive for my trading style, and I have a preference for focusing on price in it's purest form. I will say that my extensive studies of the various SMA/EMA/Front Weighted averages have helped me to read charts with more clarity, sort of like reading binary codes as they scroll across the screen. Simply put, although I don't use them as much, I'm better for having ingrained them into my thought process.

As for the current view, I considered today to be another down day, having put in the 6th lower high & lower low. The good news is the last hour climb broke through a 5-day 3-pronged channel on the 15-minute S&P 500 chart. It's not much, but changes in trend have to start somewhere, so now we wait for confirmation. There are a few other things I'm watching, but things are a bit uncertain and in that type of situation, I think it's best I use some patience, meaning I'll likely not make an IFT tomorrow.
View attachment 10936
 
JTH said:
There are a few other things I'm watching, but things are a bit uncertain and in that type of situation, I think it's best I use some patience, meaning I'll likely not make an IFT tomorrow.
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Based on the opening, I'm entertaining the possibility of making an entry into the markets today.
 
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