JTH
Well-known member
Yo we call that a 52-week high. I wonder how those who exited to G-Fund on Monday feel today? All those above me get out of my way, there's only room for 1 at the top. :cheesy:
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Or you can now use TapaTalk again!JTH's Account Talk
- Thread starter JTH
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Yo we call that a 52-week high. I wonder how those who exited to G-Fund on Monday feel today? All those above me get out of my way, there's only room for 1 at the top. :cheesy:
JTH
Well-known member
I'm reminded of the lessons I learned off the 2009 bottom and my extended lack of performance in 2010. Fear cripples & kills, some don't get it and perhaps never will, but I try to remind folks this is important stuff.
MrBowl
Well-known member
Full speed ahead. Ben had got our backs...until he doesn't.
I've had far more frustration being on the outside looking in, especially after taking the escalator down. In the past two years you were always rewarded for being patient and staying in for the rebound. I'll be in the majority of the time until another year like 2008 (diving into a recession) is upon us. I just hope I see that phase ahead of time.
JTH
Well-known member
Some stayed in too long, while others kept trying to catch a falling knife, regardless, we all lost a good bit of dough. For me, the key is to have a clearly defined definition of what a bear market is, and not to play a bear market.Mista_Magee
Member
JTH
Well-known member
Believe it or not, I went down by 55%, more than the market average. Did not get out at all and kept moving from S to I, to S, all at the wrong times. Will never fully recover because I retired and made a sizeable withdrawal.
I'm sorry to hear that, that's a heartbreaking story. My hope is some of the newer folks will learn something from you during the next bear market.
JTH
Well-known member
I'm at a juncture where I feel perfectly free to make an exit to the sidelines at anytime. It's nothing personal "it's just business." So if you see me make a last minute IFT, it wasn't because I saw something horrifying in the charts, it will most likely be because I've already met my goals and feel no need to assume additional risk.
Steel_Magnolia
Member
Just a drive-by to tell you how much I appreciate you sharing your market thoughts with us. And I like your HAL button!
JTH
Well-known member
Look buddy, you haven't passed me up this year, so why start now?
I been so happy with your stock decisions lately that I was watching for your move out today. I missed it so I'm hoping this is a bull flag forming today and may follow you tomorrow?
It's tough to outperform a bull market, I'll wager the vast majority of us won't be able to do that. My entries/exits are based on a multitude of things, some unrealated to market price. A few items this exit was based on.
1. High probability of exiting with over 2% this month.
2. Havin been invested for 13 days, has exceeded exposure, one of my goals is to not be invested for more than half the time.
3. This last leg up has been very gappy, I prefer a bit more stability in my uptrends.
4. My school starts up again this Sunday. I need to get settled into a new routine and focus on my classes.
JTH
Well-known member
Look buddy, you haven't passed me up this year, so why start now?
It's tough to outperform a bull market, I'll wager the vast majority of us won't be able to do that. My entries/exits are based on a multitude of things, some unrealated to market price. A few items this exit was based on.
1. High probability of exiting with over 2% this month.
2. Havin been invested for 13 days, has exceeded exposure, one of my goals is to not be invested for more than half the time.
3. This last leg up has been very gappy, I prefer a bit more stability in my uptrends.
4. My school starts up again this Sunday. I need to get settled into a new routine and focus on my classes.
OBTH Poolman (TSPs top 2009 performer) has made a 15% exit to the sidelines and is now 100%G. I didn't trade off that, but hey he knows what he's doing.
Bquat
Well-known member
Look buddy, you haven't passed me up this year, so why start now?
It's tough to outperform a bull market, I'll wager the vast majority of us won't be able to do that. My entries/exits are based on a multitude of things, some unrealated to market price. A few items this exit was based on.
1. High probability of exiting with over 2% this month.
2. Havin been invested for 13 days, has exceeded exposure, one of my goals is to not be invested for more than half the time.
3. This last leg up has been very gappy, I prefer a bit more stability in my uptrends.
4. My school starts up again this Sunday. I need to get settled into a new routine and focus on my classes.
Thanks for the info.
Scrappy
Member
Look buddy, you haven't passed me up this year, so why start now?
It's tough to outperform a bull market, I'll wager the vast majority of us won't be able to do that. My entries/exits are based on a multitude of things, some unrealated to market price. A few items this exit was based on.
1. High probability of exiting with over 2% this month.
2. Havin been invested for 13 days, has exceeded exposure, one of my goals is to not be invested for more than half the time.
3. This last leg up has been very gappy, I prefer a bit more stability in my uptrends.
4. My school starts up again this Sunday. I need to get settled into a new routine and focus on my classes.
JTH,
I moved 40% from I to G today before you and Poolman. (not sure if you guys bailing is support for my decision or disapointment that I didn't go 100%).
My decision was based on my option to use gut feelings as part of my "no system" system and a little bit of influence that the universal law of gravitation has on a random market.
Happy fortuity to us all.
Birtchtree- are you persuing something your not sure of?
JTH
Well-known member
2011 Personal Performance Report
YTD Stats: Updated 28 April, 40 days Invested 41 days sidelined, of days invested, 70% positive, 30% negative. Average daily gain .15%
MTD Stats: Jan .15% -- Feb 4.71% -- Mar 3.49% -- Apr MTD 3.39%
28 Apr: Entered G-Fund, with a 100% allocation. 12 days in the market, with 9 in the green. I'd call 75% up days a great bull trend to ride. My entry was timed 1 day too early, the very next day after my IFT I lost -1.48% it was a tough pill to swallow, but I stuck it out and it turned out for the better, ending the month over 3%. Oh by the way, that partial 25% S-Fund allocation taken on the prior IFT was a complete and utter waste of time.
15 Apr: Entered S-Fund, this time with a 100% allocation. My previous 25% IFT 4-day entry netted me a whopping .07% so I basically took the same entry level with a higher allocation. I did not get the sub 686 target I wanted (key word wanted.) I was not completely happy with this setup, but sometimes happiness and timing don't go hand in hand together. I took on some additional risk on this last trade, we'll see how it plays out.
11 Apr: Entered S-Fund, this time with a 25% allocation. I've spent some time thinking about how I wanted to play this month out. I'd like to finish the month fully invested, but don't want to be fully invested for the remainder of this month just yet. This was the best compromise given the circumstances I have to work with. There are 3 things, of which any 1 of those can get me fully invested. With 25% in, I can afford to absorb some pain, or partially enjoy a bounce. From there, a good entry with the remaining 75% can play well, if well played.
31 Mar: Ending the month with a 3.49% gain ending the month in the G-Fund. We have a double-top breakout on the leaders, the Transports & the W4500. My entry into stocks was 2 days too early, my exit was (and still is) too early. All in all it was still a very good month and all my goals were met, patience was well rewarded. My expectations for next month are uncertain.
25 Mar: Entered G-Fund. Ended up staying in S-Fund position a bit too long, but adding a little patience worked out. 2.82% over 9 trading days. Needed a mental break, watching the markets as intensely as I do, takes it's toll.
15 Mar: Entered S-Fund. Earth Quake devastates Japan, but watching the news over the weekend I'm optimistic the people of Japan (more so than other peoples) can overcome these tragedies. The ability of the markets to hold ground under these strained Middle Eastern & Japan conditions is nothing short of amazing. As I write this, Futures are down hard, so be it, I can't be right on everything all the time, but I can avoid being wrong for too long. Off the last major wave shown in the chart, if we retrace more than 50% (1258.85) for more than 3 days, I will be forced to consider an exit.
3 March: Entered G-Fund. The night before I had decided to make an exit, only if I thought I could escape with more than 1.37% This would (at a minimum) afford me the opportunity to outperform the G-Fund for the month should I decide to stay out of stocks for the remainder of March. It was a calculated risk that paid off and I'm happy with the outcome, having made .67% more than my lowest expectation. A 5 day investment in the S-Fund yielded a 3.04% gain.
28 Feb: Ended the month with a 4.71% gain, remaining 100% S-Fund. Bonds are tracking with stocks (who will blink first), I'll be looking to make a minimum level before making an exit. My personal belief is the downtrend has already began, only a double-top breakout will change my mind.
24 Feb: Entered S-Fund. I had sat on the sidelines for 13 days, prices pulled back over 3% so I felt like I was jumping in at a slightly discounted price. Just managed to get in a lower price than my last exit.
4 Feb: Entered G-Fund. Started the month out invested 100% S-Fund. After making a 4-day 2.13% gain I headed to the sidelines to rest out the oil-based news and wait for another buying opportunity.
31 Jan EOM: I managed to end the month with a slight profit at .15% not even enough to outpace the G-Fund or inflation
Today's bounce gives me concerns going into February, the bounce was very weak on the transports and weak across the S&P 500 & Wilshire 4500. The good news (if you can call it that) is I managed to meet my goal of starting the month invested...
26 Jan: Entered S-Fund. I didn't really want to enter the markets at this level, but I felt the pullback had already occurred and since the trend is up I felt perhaps we were ready for another breakout. This time I was 2 days early, as the Egypt crisis began to emerge. My first day in the S-fund I gained .41% and on the second day I lost -2.15%
11 Jan: Entered G with 1.01% At the time I made this decision both C & S had been down 4 of 5 days, and the dollar have been down 5 of 6. I felt the I fund had taken a downturn and I didn't want to get dragged down into the red. Turns out my decision was 1 day too early, although I escaped with a .43% gain that day, I missed out on a 1.15% gain the next day. I ended up sitting in the G-Fund for the next 10 trading days.
1 Jan: Started out from 2010 with a 1G, 26C, 52S, 21I allocation. I had reservations about this allocation because I felt it was a mistake to split my resources across multiple funds. The reason behind my thinking? How certain can you be about a position if you're so inclined to spread your risk? If you take a position you should have proof this is the best position you can take, and by spreading your risk you're showing you have doubt about the position you're taking.Similar threads
