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Or you can now use TapaTalk again!JTH's Account Talk
- Thread starter JTH
- Start date
Happy_Trails
Active member
Welcome aboard!
JTH
Well-known member
2011 Personal Performance Report
YTD Stats: Updated 16 April, 32 days Invested 41 days sidelined, of days invested, 72% positive, 28% negative. Average daily gain .119%
MTD Stats: Jan .15% -- Feb 4.71% -- Mar 3.49% -- Apr MTD .16%
15 Apr: Entered S-Fund, this time with a 100% allocation. My previous 25% IFT 4-day entry netted me a whopping .07% so I basically took the same entry level with a higher allocation. I did not get the sub 686 target I wanted (key word wanted.) I was not completely happy with this setup, but sometimes happiness and timing don't go hand in hand together. I took on some additional risk on this last trade, we'll see how it plays out.
11 Apr: Entered S-Fund, this time with a 25% allocation. I've spent some time thinking about how I wanted to play this month out. I'd like to finish the month fully invested, but don't want to be fully invested for the remainder of this month just yet. This was the best compromise given the circumstances I have to work with. There are 3 things, of which any 1 of those can get me fully invested. With 25% in, I can afford to absorb some pain, or partially enjoy a bounce. From there, a good entry with the remaining 75% can play well, if well played.
31 Mar: Ending the month with a 3.49% gain ending the month in the G-Fund. We have a double-top breakout on the leaders, the Transports & the W4500. My entry into stocks was 2 days too early, my exit was (and still is) too early. All in all it was still a very good month and all my goals were met, patience was well rewarded. My expectations for next month are uncertain.
25 Mar: Entered G-Fund. Ended up staying in S-Fund position a bit too long, but adding a little patience worked out. 2.82% over 9 trading days. Needed a mental break, watching the markets as intensely as I do, takes it's toll.
15 Mar: Entered S-Fund. Earth Quake devastates Japan, but watching the news over the weekend I'm optimistic the people of Japan (more so than other peoples) can overcome these tragedies. The ability of the markets to hold ground under these strained Middle Eastern & Japan conditions is nothing short of amazing. As I write this, Futures are down hard, so be it, I can't be right on everything all the time, but I can avoid being wrong for too long. Off the last major wave shown in the chart, if we retrace more than 50% (1258.85) for more than 3 days, I will be forced to consider an exit.
3 March: Entered G-Fund. The night before I had decided to make an exit, only if I thought I could escape with more than 1.37% This would (at a minimum) afford me the opportunity to outperform the G-Fund for the month should I decide to stay out of stocks for the remainder of March. It was a calculated risk that paid off and I'm happy with the outcome, having made .67% more than my lowest expectation. A 5 day investment in the S-Fund yielded a 3.04% gain.
28 Feb: Ended the month with a 4.71% gain, remaining 100% S-Fund. Bonds are tracking with stocks (who will blink first), I'll be looking to make a minimum level before making an exit. My personal belief is the downtrend has already began, only a double-top breakout will change my mind.
24 Feb: Entered S-Fund. I had sat on the sidelines for 13 days, prices pulled back over 3% so I felt like I was jumping in at a slightly discounted price. Just managed to get in a lower price than my last exit.
4 Feb: Entered G-Fund. Started the month out invested 100% S-Fund. After making a 4-day 2.13% gain I headed to the sidelines to rest out the oil-based news and wait for another buying opportunity.
31 Jan EOM: I managed to end the month with a slight profit at .15% not even enough to outpace the G-Fund or inflation
Today's bounce gives me concerns going into February, the bounce was very weak on the transports and weak across the S&P 500 & Wilshire 4500. The good news (if you can call it that) is I managed to meet my goal of starting the month invested...
26 Jan: Entered S-Fund. I didn't really want to enter the markets at this level, but I felt the pullback had already occurred and since the trend is up I felt perhaps we were ready for another breakout. This time I was 2 days early, as the Egypt crisis began to emerge. My first day in the S-fund I gained .41% and on the second day I lost -2.15%
11 Jan: Entered G with 1.01% At the time I made this decision both C & S had been down 4 of 5 days, and the dollar have been down 5 of 6. I felt the I fund had taken a downturn and I didn't want to get dragged down into the red. Turns out my decision was 1 day too early, although I escaped with a .43% gain that day, I missed out on a 1.15% gain the next day. I ended up sitting in the G-Fund for the next 10 trading days.
1 Jan: Started out from 2010 with a 1G, 26C, 52S, 21I allocation. I had reservations about this allocation because I felt it was a mistake to split my resources across multiple funds. The reason behind my thinking? How certain can you be about a position if you're so inclined to spread your risk? If you take a position you should have proof this is the best position you can take, and by spreading your risk you're showing you have doubt about the position you're taking.
JTH
Well-known member
JTH;
Any significance to changing your avatar to a Red Light from the MARCON chart? Trying to tell us something? Like stop, jump, or bail maybe?
Just wondering -- I really liked your chart. :cheesy:
Actually it is the HAL 9000 from 2001 A Space Odyssey.
"HAL: I've just picked up a fault in the AE35 unit. It's going to go 100% failure in 72 hours."
"Dave Bowman: Open the pod bay doors, HAL.
HAL: I'm sorry Dave, I'm afraid I can't do that."
Great movie. Great music. A classic.
JTH
Well-known member
MARCON has been a great exercise in the measurement of a mechanical system merged with the interpretation of trendlines and time-based perspective. I've learned some great things from it, but now I have to take those lessons and start on the next revision. Here's the latest & last update.
View attachment 10972
RealMoneyIssues
Well-known member
Cactus
Well-known member
Oh-Oh. That sounds a lot like the new TSP computer.
"HAL: I've just picked up a fault in the AE35 unit. It's going to go 100% failure in 72 hours."
"Dave Bowman: Open the pod bay doors, HAL.
HAL: I'm sorry Dave, I'm afraid I can't do that."
Great movie. Great music. A classic.
Me: I would like an IFT, please.
TSP: I'm sorry, smuck, I'm afraid I can't let you do that.
Me: You don't understand! I need to save my retirement funds.
TSP: MuaaaHaahaahaahaahaa!!!
Originally Posted by nasa1974
"HAL: I've just picked up a fault in the AE35 unit. It's going to go 100% failure in 72 hours."
"Dave Bowman: Open the pod bay doors, HAL.
HAL: I'm sorry Dave, I'm afraid I can't do that."
Great movie. Great music. A classic.
LOL!!! For TSP you could insert FRTIB. :laugh::nuts::laugh:
JTH
Well-known member
No system comming down the pike just yet, I'm still in a state of tweak, working on some ideas. It's very difficult when you're a perfectionist who isn't capable of achieving perfection. When it comes down to brass tacks, the best system you can have is wisdom and it can't be taught, it has to be earned.
crws
Active member
"HAL: I've just picked up a fault in the AE35 unit. It's going to go 100% failure in 72 hours."
"Dave Bowman: Open the pod bay doors, HAL.
HAL: I'm sorry Dave, I'm afraid I can't do that."
Great movie. Great music. A classic.
Second that!
Nice ava, JTH.
JTH
Well-known member
Pardon my rant.
I'm not in this market to lose money, I'm 100% invested because we will break through the two previous tops. Why are prices at this level anyways? Are we up this high so we can flounder about without purpose? The 52, 26, & 13 week indexes are all bullish, every single one of them. What part of bull market don't you understand?
I'm here to make money are you? Check yourself before you wreck yourself...
View attachment 10975
RealMoneyIssues
Well-known member
JTH
Well-known member
Birchtree
Well-known member
JTH is in transition and is talking to himself. It's not easy being a new bull after fighting the strength for two years - but I'm seriously glad he is on my side. Now we can concentrate on searching for the next top which could simply be years away. As for volume keep in mind that the center point of three will have the most amount of participation by both breadth and volume in related charts. Mom and pop are coming.Similar threads
