FWM, sorry for the late reply, I had a lot of information to digest and wanted to give your comments some deeper consideration.
First I want to talk about volume in the "general sense." The other day I was watching CNBC and a trader came on and gave his take on volume. He acknowledged that he was going against the grain of what everyone was taught to believe when he said he no longer highly values volume as an indicator. Some time ago, I came to this conclusion myself, in that the
game has changed. If we look at the S&P 500's monthly chart we can see volume was rising after the 2003 bottom, but off the 2009 bottom volume has been declining. With overal low volume across the indexes prices are more susceptible to manipulation. I've also found that volume-based indicators are not as relaible as I once thought they were. I'm not discounting the volume spikes you've pointed out, I'm just stating that I don't give volume the same weighted value I once did.
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As for the 20/50/200 moving averages, I believe they are important because we make them important. I've not been using them much this year and they haven't factored into my trades. I have nothing against them, I just find they are too reactive for my trading style, and I have a preference for focusing on price in it's purest form. I will say that my extensive studies of the various SMA/EMA/Front Weighted averages have helped me to read charts with more clarity, sort of like reading binary codes as they scroll across the screen. Simply put, although I don't use them as much, I'm better for having ingrained them into my thought process.
As for the current view, I considered today to be another down day, having put in the 6th lower high & lower low. The good news is the last hour climb broke through a 5-day 3-pronged channel on the 15-minute S&P 500 chart. It's not much, but changes in trend have to start somewhere, so now we wait for confirmation. There are a few other things I'm watching, but things are a bit uncertain and in that type of situation, I think it's best I use some patience, meaning I'll likely not make an IFT tomorrow.
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