JTH's Account Talk

[JTH]

Good morning and HAPPY FRIDAY!!!

Sectors off to yet another RED start. I'm looking to finish off the day postitive, but as usual it never matters what I think, it matters what the market thinks.

It always amazes me how the markets react positively when President Obama speaks. However, I'm not sure he has enough reteric within him to hold these markets up on thier own.

Banks not lending, housing still dropping, no TARP in sight. I must be a fool for being invested under these circumstances.


I NEED energy to lead the way!

Basic Materials-1.77%
Capital Goods-1.95%
Conglomerates-3.64%
Cons. Cyclical-1.64%
Cons. Non-Cyclical-1.56%
Energy-2.10%
Financial-2.42%
Healthcare-1.37%
Services-1.65%
Technology-1.53%
Transportation-1.82%
Utilities-1.17%

 

[JTH]

I may sell the other 15% I-Fund tomorrow. JTH

Gosh darnet I've missed the IFT deadline. Oh well perhaps it's for the better.

 

[JTH]

It will be an interesting week, I doubt we'll close positive for the month, perhaps next month will fare better. :notrust:

 

[Uptrend]

Nice charts. So far the spx 804 is holding. Many W's froming on individual charts. Do I smell a rally? Tell the VIX to sellte down to 40 or below.

 

[JTH]

Good morning everyone!

I tried to get some nookie from the wife this morning and was shot down Perhaps I'll get lucky in the markets instead.

Basic Materials1.63%
Capital Goods1.32%
Conglomerates2.85%
Cons. Cyclical3.20%
Cons. Non-Cyclical1.15%
Energy-0.22%
Financial1.67%
Healthcare0.91%
Services0.28%
Technology1.20%
Transportation0.74%
Utilities0.26%

 

[XL-entLady]

I tried to get some nookie from the wife this morning and was shot down Perhaps I'll get lucky in the markets instead.

In addition to being WAY too much information there ... may I suggest that if your approach to your wife bore any resemblance to your MB message then maybe she would be more amenable to a more suble and tender approach, you romantic devil you. Just trying to help. :cheesy:

Lady

 

[Gumby]

Good morning everyone!

I tried to get some nookie from the wife this morning and was shot down Perhaps I'll get lucky in the markets instead.

Maybe she wasn't up for "froggie style" this morning. Suggest a different approach next time.:nuts:

 

[JTH]

Maybe she wasn't up for "froggie style" this morning. Suggest a different approach next time.:nuts:

In addition to being WAY too much information there ... may I suggest that if your approach to your wife bore any resemblance to your MB message then maybe she would be more amenable to a more suble and tender approach, you romantic devil you. Just trying to help. :cheesy:

Lady

It's all good, due to different schedules, I knew I'd get turned down anyway, but that never stops me from trying.

Hey at least I got lucky in the markets right? :worried:

 

[JTH]

Good night!

As for the charts, I'll be happy if we can turn the yellow line into support, and close in the 850s. I still doubt it can happen, but who knows?

Worthless yet note worthy... Over the past 17 trading days this month, the AVERAGE intraday difference between the highs & lows in the S&P 500 has been over 26 points! This sure does make it hard to IFT in and out because if you're timing is wrong, if could cost you. :suspicious:

 

[JTH]

Good Morning!

Best of luck everyone and I hope we end up in the positive. I've had to scale back the last 5 days as I've already taken my hits. I don't anticipate getting back up to my original entry of S&P 500 930 this month, so I'm setting up for a better buying position next month once we get back out IFTs.

G-34
F- 0
C-15
S-50
I- 1

Cheers...JTH

 

[JTH]

FYI

This week, 2 P&F patterns have gone from Bearish to Bullish.

Both $SPX & $EMW

Today, $EMW is currently stuck above the 50MA and under the 20MA and has a Double Top Breakout.

 

[JTH]

Good night & good luck...

I've been slowly taking this weeks gains off the table and I'm glad to see others have as well. Tomorrow's close will tell me if I'll be starting February invested, or sidelined.

For the moment, I'm watching the 870 & 890 level. With all this recent strength, I'd expect a pullback but I've been wrong more times than right so what do I know?

The 50EMA is resting at 888.52

 

[JTH]

Tomorrow's close will tell me if I'll be starting February invested, or sidelined.

Live to fight another day...

IFT 100% G-Fund, efffective COB Friday

 

[JTH]

With CSI in such a dismal disarray, I'd like to see a buying opportunity in the F-Fund. I see some strong support for AGG at the 97-98 level. If we can drop down to these levels and they hold, then I may be a buyer.

Only problem is, if stocks continue to decline as rapidly as they have been, then the flight to quality may not give me a buying opportunity at the 97-98 level.

Looking at the daily chart, the rising trend line has been broken, and we have broken down through the middle bollinger band. I've circled some resistance & support lines in the 97 area.

Looking at the P&F Chart set up for a 2 box reversal, we can see the Bullish Price Objective has already been met, and we have Double Top Breakout. We appear to be sitting just above support at 100, but I'm wanting to fall down to the 97-98 level so I can be a buyer at cheaper prices.

Looking at the weekly chart, it's nice to see the HUGE divergence in the upper and lower bollinger bands starting in October, when compared to the rest of this chart. We can also see the stochastic is headed back down. I wanted to point out what happens every time you buy at the bottom bollinger band.

Cheers...JTH

Posted here so I can keep track of my positions.

 

[XL-entLady]

Good analysis. Thanks for sharing!

Lady

 

[JTH]

Good analysis. Thanks for sharing!

Lady

Thanks, it's good to dull up the crayons to keep my mind sharpened

 

[JTH]

If January's drubbing taught me anything, it's that this market can be very unforgiving in a short period of time. Hopefully the next time I take a position in the S-fund, it will be a quick in-&-out .

Looking at the daily chart, I've circled in green, the lines of support I'm hoping will hold. I don't' have much faith in 348 or 332 holding but I've been wrong more times than right, so I'll just sit on the sidelines and watch.

I'm not good with Head & Shoulder patterns, but I am watching this chart to see how it plays out.

Looking at the P&F Chart set up with a 2 Box Reversal, I find it hard to believe it has a bullish price objective of 408. It also has a High Pole Warning.

"The high pole warning is given when a chart rises above a previous high by at least 3 boxes but then reverses to give back at least 50 percent of the rise. The reversal implies that the demand that was making the prices rise has given way to supply pressure. The pattern is a warning that lower prices could be seen in the future."
http://stockcharts.com/help/doku.php?id=supportnf_alerts

Last but not least, we have the weekly chart. I just wanted to point out the last candle colored in yellow. I guess you would call it an inverted hammer.

" The Inverted Hammer looks exactly like a Shooting Star, but forms after a decline or downtrend. Inverted Hammers represent a potential trend reversal or support levels. After a decline, the long upper shadow indicates buying pressure during the session. However, the bulls were not able to sustain this buying pressure and prices closed well off of their highs to create the long upper shadow. Because of this failure, bullish confirmation is required before action. An Inverted Hammer followed by a gap up or long white candlestick with heavy volume could act as bullish confirmation."
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:introduction_to_cand

Cheers...JTH

Posted here so I can keep track of my positions.

 

[JTH]

Normally, I don't analyze $SPX because we have so many talented folks here in this forum and on You Tube who do such a great job with this chart. Nevertheless I still like to pull out the crayons for confirmation, and because there is always someone else who comes along and points out something you either missed of didn't think of.

Looking at the daily chart, it appears we have two trading ranges going on and right now we are stuck in the lower trading range and Stochastics are headed down again.

Looking at the P&F 2 Box Reversal, we can see we have a Bearish price objective of 803. For the time being, 740-800 is where I'm a buyer and I hope we can make this our new trading range. It's not that I want the market to go down, it's that I'm paying off a TSP loan, so my buying power is limited.

I pointed out the same thing on the S-fund thread.


I'll be honest with you, I'm getting sick and tired of playing in these ranges and I want us to free-fall below 820 into a lower trading range, mostly because I want to buy more shares at cheaper prices.

Cheers...JTH

Posted here so I can keep track of my positions.

 

[JTH]

Good morning and good luck in you're already invested.


JTH... Happily sitting on the sidelines waiting for the market to unfold.

 

[Birchtree]

So far this morning we are holding SPX support at 804. Could have made a tail.