JTH's Account Talk

[JTH]

Good morning everyone


It always seems that when the market is at its worst, I am at my busiest at work, and don't have time to make IFT decisions.
As of yesterday, I'm -8.89 YTD. Heck even Birch is starting to feel sorry for me. :worried:

The tracker shows only 58 of the 177 with a positive return. This means 67% of us are taking a hit so far. I'm impressed by the top 6 who are beating the F-Fund, those folks are my heros!

This is certainly a bad start to the new year, the Obama pop will be a fizzle, when compared to what has already been lost. I'm in too deep and too early to bail now. It seems we are on the brink of deciding if we are going to test or penetrate 750. We could easily test 750 before the end of the month, and then get a small rally before I get my IFTs back.

Cheers... JTH

 

[justbizness45]

Today should have removed a little of your pain. I still think the market will bolster a little on Mr O next week. We sure turned around when they announced another 850B on the way. I plan to be out by Wednesday at the latest unless there is alot of good news next week, but I can't see that happening.:suspicious:

 

[JTH]

Today should have removed a little of your pain. I still think the market will bolster a little on Mr O next week. We sure turned around when they announced another 850B on the way. I plan to be out by Wednesday at the latest unless there is alot of good news next week, but I can't see that happening.:suspicious:

Thanks buddy, it does feel good to not have to scroll as far down the tracker to find my name. In terms of this market, I feel as if I've been kicked repeatedly in the nads. Such is life and I'm being taught endless lessons in patience and humility.

I'm 35 and time is on m side.

Still looking to sell at 970ish

 

[justbizness45]

I'm 50, only been a Fed for 7 years. I can't retire without taking a hit until I am 62. I have 12 years left and wondering if it is enough time to maintain my lifestyle in the manner I think I deserve.:laugh: Good luck!!

 

[JTH]

I'm 50, only been a Fed for 7 years. I can't retire without taking a hit until I am 62. I have 12 years left and wondering if it is enough time to maintain my lifestyle in the manner I think I deserve.:laugh: Good luck!!

I'm almost in the same boat, in the sense that I only have 8 years left to contribute to TSP unless I stay in or pick another gov job. But it's not likely I'll ever work for the Feds again, so I'm trying to broaden my investment choices.

Regardless, I'll still come here because I like the crowd, and the overall tone here. It's a great place to get different perspectives on the market in general, kinda like a one-stop-market-shop

 

[JTH]

Good morning everyone!

It's been a while, since I've done my homework and looked at the technicals. I'm revising my 970 exit, as it's just not realistic for the short term.
I need 918 to break even, and I'm hoping to make my exit above that level. At the moment I don't expect the market to get above 928. If it can't penetrate 928, then I'm screwed. I'm basing my assumptions on the the wedging pattern from Nov & Jan peaks, & lows.

In summary

918 Break even target
928 Exit target
820 I'm screwed and will eject, waiting to re-enter at at 750...

 

[JTH]

Where is my super pre-Obama market rally when I need it?

Obama - Pocket change we can believe in

 

[Birchtree]

The bull steps up after 1500 hours to trap a few bears - we've already had a nice come back from profit taking this afternoon - I don't plan to sell anything until the profit motive makes it reasonable. I just hate to pay taxes even at 15%.

 

[JTH]

Good evening everyone.

Friday's close leaves us more of the same indecision we've grown accustomed to over the last 6 weeks. Nevertheless, I'll post some simple observations for others to read and dissect.

[FONT=&quot]Here are the S&P 500’s weekly pivot points.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]R2 925.88[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]R1 888.00[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Midpoint 870.26[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]PP 852.52[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Midpoint 833.58[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]S1 814.64[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]S2 779.16[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Here are the S&P 500’s monthly pivot points.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]R1 923.63[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Midpoint 896.99[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]PP 870.34[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Midpoint 833.58[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]S1 796.82[/FONT]
As you may notice, 870 comes up on both the weekly & monthly pivot points.
Cheers... JTH

 

[mick504]

I guess all the buyers must be at the Obama rally right now! I also was waiting for a big market surge....maybe those Warren Buffet comments put a damper on the sessions.

 

[JTH]

I guess all the buyers must be at the Obama rally right now!

That about sums it up for me. It's been a bad call for me this month. I was banking on a physiological Obama surge to push us up to 970. I still think some type of surge could happen, but I've gone in to early to reap any benefits from it.

 

[JTH]

Good evening everyone

Here are some random thoughts on the S-Fund.

Cheers...JTH

 

[JTH]

Not the morning start I was hoping for...

Basic Materials-4.24%
Capital Goods-3.08%
Conglomerates-3.62%
Cons. Cyclical-1.85%
Cons. Non-Cyclical-0.69%
Energy-3.90%
Financial-6.31%
Healthcare-0.97%
Services-2.52%
Technology-2.64%
Transportation-4.00%
Utilities-1.15%

 

[Steadygain]

Basic Materials-4.24%
Capital Goods-3.08%
Conglomerates-3.62%
Cons. Cyclical-1.85%
Cons. Non-Cyclical-0.69%
Energy-3.90%
Financial-6.31%
Healthcare-0.97%
Services-2.52%
Technology-2.64%
Transportation-4.00%
Utilities-1.15%

This is an excellent post - THANK YOU!!

 

[JTH]

This is an excellent post - THANK YOU!!

Good morning ol friend, it's good to hear from you.

Tsk tsk, if patience was a virtue, then I was a whore in the beginning of the month, and a saint towards the end.

My line in the sand is S&P500 820 & $EMW 350. We haven't crossed it yet, but we sure are getting close...

 

[JTH]

20% C-Fund 820=Run to safety.
50% S-Fund 350=Run for the hills...
30% I-Fund Already too late to bail, so I'll hold

Best of luck to everyone trying to ride the derailed Obama train.

Looks like the fat lady is clearing her throat..."Do Re Mi Fa So La Ti" :toung:

 

[JTH]

-13.19 YTD, but it's not all that bad considering half my money is tied up in a TSP loan.

I'm not bailing. :cheesy:

I'm holding my position.

I didn't want us to drop down this far this fast, but we did and there isn't anything worth moving over. 800 should be strong support and I'm already too far down the rabbit hole to get out now. Besides, almost every time I've gotten out at the bottom, it has been a mistake. There is nothing worse than being stuck in G while the market takes off without you. At this point I'd rather keep the shares.

Oh and Mr. Long.... YOU SUCK

 

[Birchtree]

The question is if Mr. Long sucks - what exactly does he suck.

 

[JTH]

All sectors are in the red. I suppose this doesn't bode well for a postitive day. It's rare that I see all red sectors make a turn-around and push up the markets.

Best of luck out there folks, now is'nt the time to be invested...


Basic Materials-3.03%
Capital Goods-2.85%
Conglomerates-3.03%
Cons. Cyclical-6.03%
Cons. Non-Cyclical-1.41%
Energy-4.28%
Financial-3.76%
Healthcare-1.18%
Services-2.55%
Technology-3.16%
Transportation-1.08%
Utilities-0.68%

 

[JTH]

New Allocation

15 G
0 F
20 C
50 S
15 I

Since the I-Fund has been my biggest stinker this month, I'm going to get rid of it. I've scaled back 15% I-Fund into the G-Fund. I also need to take into account that if we do get out next leg down, than I need some buying power for next month's IFTs. I may sell the other 15% I-Fund tomorrow.

Best to everyone... JTH