JTH's Account Talk

[JTH]

I'm still looking to be a buyer below 800. I'll be going against some of our beloved You Tube traders and say that this bear rally doesn't have much upside left to it. If we can close above 880, than I may change my mind, but by then it will probably be too late for me to catch this short rally given TSP's rules.

 

[JTH]

Good morning everyone

Not much to say for this week, except to say that my overall outlook from the beginning of February has not changed. Simply put, I am firmly entrenched in the Bear camp until proven otherwise. Therefore I will save my 2 IFTs this morning and perhaps for the week.

Looking at AGG (F-Fund) I am watching the 100 level, hoping for a bounce worth biting into. I'd like to see us close above the yellow descending trendline with authority. I'm most interested in AGG due to all the volatility stocks have been giving us.

Cheers...JTH

 

[Uptrend]

Looking at AGG (F-Fund) I am watching the 100 level, hoping for a bounce worth biting into. I'd like to see us close above the yellow descending trendline with authority. I'm most interested in AGG due to all the volatility stocks have been giving us.

Cheers...JTH

JTH Like your charts.

My interpretation is that the AGG moves more or less opposite spx and emw. On the daily we see that the AGG cannot get above the decending trendline. On the weekly we see 2 spinning top candlesticks in a row. This marks indecision. These 2 factors taken together with the market floating above 848 spx (see my latest post) tells me that the market has some upside left. Regarding the upper bollinger band on the $emw in your other post -when the bands narrow as shown the market normally shoots in the trend direction (in this case up). You can see this happened around the first of the year. The market can ride the edge of the band for quite a few trading days. So anyway, nice charts, but IMHO there is a short-term upside bias. I see an up week after a dwon Monday.

 

[CapeChem]

"Do yourself a favor and DON'T look at the tracker "

I looked and I think i threw up in my mouth a little.....that is truly sad.
It just sets us up for the greatest comeback in Tracker history!

 

[JTH]

"Do yourself a favor and DON'T look at the tracker "

I looked and I think i threw up in my mouth a little.....that is truly sad.
It just sets us up for the greatest comeback in Tracker history!

It's all good, I don't mind it so much. It's early in the year and we still have a long road to hoe :cheesy:

 

[JTH]

Looking at AGG (F-Fund) I am watching the 100 level, hoping for a bounce worth biting into. I'd like to see us close above the yellow descending trendline with authority.

Ok, so I lied I'm not ready to jump in just yet, but I'm getting close. Here are a few things I'd like to see for confirmation. On the daily AGG chart I'd like to see a close above the 50SMA.

On the 10 & 30 year yields I'd like to see the stochastics head down below 80.

 

[JTH]

More thoughts to ponder. Here's a 5 month chart with 54 down days and 49 up days. When we have big down days, how many times did you get your money back the next day?

 

[JTH]

Good morning everyone


33% F-Fund effective EOB today. I may pick up some SDS by EOB also.
best of trading to all...

 

[JTH]

Looks like AGG may close above the 50SMA today. Last time this happend, we had a nice little run in bonds.

 

[JTH]

Good evening everyone.

Perhaps Stocks didn't tell the story today, but Bonds did. Promising news for us AGG lovers, the 10 & 30 year yields are falling, as are their stocastics.

I had some time to watch the markets this morning, liked what I saw, so took a 33% dip into the F-Fund. I'll wait for further confirmation before adding to the position.

Good luck and stay nimble, it's dangerous out there...

 

[JTH]

JTH's Market Comments: It's about time! This market needs to bleed more before I'm convinced it's time to move in and collect the dead. If you put things into perspective, this really wasn't a bad day, considering what happened overseas.

My only regret in today's Market, is that I've only one IFT left to sacrifice for my TSP. Otherwise, I would have nibbled me some more F-Fund today. :cheesy:

 

[justbizness45]

JTH's Market Comments: It's about time! This market needs to bleed more before I'm convinced it's time to move in and collect the dead. If you put things into perspective, this really wasn't a bad day, considering what happened overseas.

My only regret in today's Market, is that I've only one IFT left to sacrifice for my TSP. Otherwise, I would have nibbled me some more F-Fund today. :cheesy:

What do you make of the rapid drop in the AGG today around 3:45? Up +0.3% only to close +0.08%. There wasn't an opposite rally in stock during that period.

 

[JTH]

What do you make of the rapid drop in the AGG today around 3:45? Up +0.3% only to close +0.08%. There wasn't an opposite rally in stock during that period.

Thanks for pointing that out, I saw the gradual spike in volume, but couldn't find any event to attribute it to. I can only speculate it was profit takers going to the sidelines and getting their money ready to pounce in whatever direction the market goes.

On a side-note

Bought SDS @ 86.39 It's not the original entry point I wanted, but sometimes you just have to take what the market offers, or not take anything at all.

Best of luck to everyone

 

[poolman]

Thanks for pointing that out, I saw the gradual spike in volume, but couldn't find any event to attribute it to. I can only speculate it was profit takers going to the sidelines and getting their money ready to pounce in whatever direction the market goes.

On a side-note

Bought SDS @ 86.39 It's not the original entry point I wanted, but sometimes you just have to take what the market offers, or not take anything at all.

Best of luck to everyone

Yesterday was the day to be in SDS. If I would have had my money in the trading acct, I figured yesterday I could have made almost $1500.00

 

[JTH]

Yesterday was the day to be in SDS. If I would have had my money in the trading acct, I figured yesterday I could have made almost $1500.00

I completely agree, but sometimes it's been hard to keep track of the market, while doing my job at the same time. :cheesy:

It's been busy here, if my job isn't killing me, then the market is...

 

[JTH]

Good morning everyone

I love the smell of napalm in the morning :cheesy:

New IFT

34 G
33 F (hedging and looking for one more pop before the end of the month)
33 C (Looking to take this back to G after Monday's pop)

Best to everyone, stay nimbel

 

[JTH]

33 C (Looking to take this back to G after Monday's pop)

As of this writing, I'd like to see Monday close just below 788.

Tuesday's close above 788 preferably 796-798.

Wednesday-Friday a bounce or two off of 806 and back down we go.

G & F will be the only winners this month

 

[CapeChem]

That wooshing sound i heard was you passing me on the tracker.....I went 97G so i should catch up soon!!

 

[JTH]

That wooshing sound i heard was you passing me on the tracker.....I went 97G so i should catch up soon!!

It's all good, I have climbed a few spots on the tracker, but at this point I only care about beating the G-fund. Anyone invested today felt the pain...

 

[JTH]

It would appear my 33% 1-day C-Fund swing swung early

At least there is solace in the 33% F-Fund I left to hedge stocks. There isn't anything I can do for the rest of the month, so I'll go play with the ROTH IRA.

Best of luck to everyone because ain't nothing else working!