JTH's Account Talk

[JTH]

1 Nov Stats

Good morning

For the S&P 500, our 1st day of November closed up 1.05%

In the far right column, from 1960-2022, the 1st day of November closed up 41 of 63 times. When the 1st day of November closed up, the month of November closed up 32 of 41 times, giving us a 78% win ratio.



On the 30-Minute chart, spanning across the past 12 days, we can see a potential V-Bottom beginning to take shape. We have nearly re-captured 50% of October's high & low range, we can see 3 areas of overhead resistance at 4258.

 

[JTH]

Thursday's Gap

Good morning

For the S&P 500, after 2 trading sessions in November we are up 2.96% MTD.

On the 30-Minute timeframe we gaped right over the supposed 4258 level which I thought might serve as overhead resistance (it didn’t). Instead, in a very short 5 days off the bottom, we’ve retraced 75% of October’s High to Low range.



On the Daily, we put in a sizable upside .53% gap, but will it get filled? I can only say that within the confines of TSP, it's difficult to time an entry where we look for the gap to get filled, some of these gaps go months unfilled. As an example, (in the purple box) the -.50% Gap from 29 March 2023 (152 sessions ago) was part of a 20.96% rally and it’s still unfilled.

For now, I had previously mentioned on 31-Oct that 4302 is a fibonacci level on 3 different price levels, so I’m focused on seeing if this can become a key support level.


Here’s a Sector update (I try to do them on Friday). We can see when compared to the previous week, our weighted scores have nearly doubled for both Momentum & Performance. The technology sector has produced an estimated 10.36% of the S&P 500’s 12.46% gains.


The S&P 500’s weighted Top-10 & Top-50 have also gained strength. The Top-10 have provided the S&P 500 (based on weight) an estimated 20.09% YTD, while the Top-50 have provided 23.05% YTD.


Thanks for reading, take care.

 

[JTH]

Good afternoon (welcome to the time-change)

Finishing the first 3 trading sessions of November, our AutoTracker’s participants are off to a great start for the month with the S-Fund taking the lead, gaining an impressive 5.52% MTD.


The AutoTracker’s Top-600 gained 3.06% MTD, with the Top-50 gaining 3.64%. Allocation-wise, within the Top-50 there was a 24% increase into the CSI-Funds.


For the S&P-500, we are currently 13.51% YTD, this is higher than the 63-Year average 6.68% YTD of all November closes.

 

[JTH]

Monday

Good morning

For the S&P 500, our 3-Day performance is 3.92% (the highest since 2-Feb-2023), and we’ve recovered 50% of the decline off the 2023 peak. I would estimate we’ve put in an Exhaustion Gap which would appear at the end of a trend where perhaps a decline to cover the 2 lower gaps could also establish the beginning of a higher swing low (thus breaking beginning to break this downtrend).


For Linear Regression, I’ll show two timeframe perspectives, each with different expectations.

Off the 2023 High (71 sessions) we are Highly Overbought. The recent close is above Standard Deviation 2 where 95% of prices are expected to reside. Fair Value on this declining channel is listed at SPX 4225 (-3.05% below the current close).


Stretching out further to the 2023 Low (165 sessions) we are Moderately Oversold. Our recent close is within Standard Deviation 1 where 68% of prices are expected to reside. Fair Value on this rising channel is listed at SPX 4478 (2.75% above the current close).


I’ve added gap data to the Day Of Week chart, the last 27 gaps up at the market open resulted in a 70% closing win ratio & vice versa for gaps down. Of note, the last 5 gaps up closed the day up & the last 5 gaps down closed down.


Our 27 days broken down into 30-minute progressive increments show the yellow average has risen above the 0% line. We can also see a Post-IFT rise in the last hour of trading at 15:00.


Last Friday was our 5th consecutive positive close, can we make it to 6 days? From 21-Years, we’ve closed 6 consecutive positive days 72 times (about 3.4 times a year). Our last event was in June 2023, we have zero events in 2022, and 4 events in 2021. Although I’ve not studied this in detail I would guess these events are more likely to happen in a strong Bull market.


Thanks for reading & take care.

 

[JTH]

Re: Monday

I'll step out and see what transpires, IFT 100-G EoB today.

 

[JTH]

Re: SPX FIB @ 4300

Good morning

For the S&P 500 from 1960-2022 the Month of November had closed up 43 of 63 times with an average gain of 3.92%. From the 2023 perspective, we’ve closed above this level at 4.11% MTD.


Having finagled myself from 4.39% to 10.20% YTD (across four C-Fund IFTs & spanning 43 sessions), I’ll look to re-enter at a lower price. Given we are in a seasonally good two months, I don’t think I’ll be in the G-Fund for too long.

 

[nasa1974]

Re: SPX FIB @ 4300

I'm sitting at 6.44% YTD. It would be nice to get that into double digits again. Good luck everyone.

 

[JTH]

Re: SPX FIB @ 4300

I'm sitting at 6.44% YTD. It would be nice to get that into double digits again. Good luck everyone.

Interesting, November's closing YTD average is 6.68%, so technically you're right on target for an 8.15% year. :smile:

 

[nasa1974]

Re: SPX FIB @ 4300

Interesting, November's closing YTD average is 6.68%, so technically you're right on target for an 8.15% year. :smile:

That sure looks better than the 26.26% I lost in 2022.

 

[JTH]

Wednesday

Good morning

On Tuesday the S&P 500 closed up for a 7th consecutive close.

For the S&P 500 from 2002-2022, 8-consecutive positive closes happened 9-times. The last time this happened was in October-2021 with both 7 & 8 back-to-back consecutive positive closes.

If this index was a Roulette table, based on the 21-year timeframe I would tell you the odds of closing positive on any day is 54% (regardless of consecutive days). If we gap up on the open, then the odds go up to 70%.


We’ve closed 5-trading days on the MTD Statistical Range chart. At 4.40% MTD we are outperforming the Green Average-of-Gains line. At this point in the chart, Day-5 closed up 16 times with the month closing up 13 of 16 times for an average gain of 4.58%. In November 2020, Day-5 was up 7.32% and finished the month 10.75% (the best November across 63 years).


As for current conditions, it’s much the same story with the heaviest weighted Tech sector pulling the markets up. By weight the S&P 500 currently allocates 28.75% to Tech. At this time only Tech & Real Estate have made higher Swing Highs, but since Real Estate is less than 3% of the index it’s not a market mover. And although Healthcare has matched its previous Swing High with a Double Top, we still lack leadership from the other sectors as they haven't broken above the previous swing highs.

 

[nasa1974]

Informative as always. Thanks.

 

[JTH]

Winning....

Good morning

Here’s everything you never wanted to know about winning streaks….

On Wednesday the S&P 500 closed positive for an 8th consecutive close. A 9th positive consecutive close has happened once in 21 years (in 2004) and 48 times in 63 years. The longest win streak I have on record (going back to 1959) is 14-days. This bull market ran from May-1970 to Jan-1973 earning 77.44%. It spanned 32 months, surviving 2 to 3 corrections greater than -10%, with a daily 56% win ratio across 666 sessions.

This bull run had five 9-day, three 10-day, three 11-day, three 12-day, one 13-day and one 14-day win streak. Collectively across those 16 events spanning 171 winning sessions the markets earned 80.11%

Bull Market of 1970-1973 The Nifty Fifty: “The bull market that began in May 1970 was associated with the rise of a group of high-growth companies called the Nifty Fifty.”



The 22 Months following the Jan-1973 peak, the S&P 500 collapsed, erasing all the previous gains.

The Bear Market of 1973-1974 The Oil Shock: “Arab oil producing nations instituted an oil embargo on the U.S. in retaliation for its support of Israel in the conflict known as the Yom Kippur War. The embargo triggered a shortage of oil and a spike in oil prices that crippled the U.S. economy.”



Looking at today on the 30-minute chart this Isosceles triangle is near completion, it’s not often I see such an uniform example which matches both in price and time. In the Yellow box is the Daily where off the Oct bottom each of the succeeding 8 candlesticks has both a higher high and a higher low.

 

[tsptalk]

Re: Winning....

This bull market ran from May-1970 to Jan-1973 earning 77.44%.

Just in time to trigger that mid-70's inflation disaster.

The Bear Market of 1973-1974 The Oil Shock: “Arab oil producing nations instituted an oil embargo on the U.S. in retaliation for its support of Israel in the conflict known as the Yom Kippur War. The embargo triggered a shortage of oil and a spike in oil prices that crippled the U.S. economy.”

Interesting. Will history repeat here as well?

Good stuff, JTH!

 

[nasa1974]

Re: Thursday's Gap

I guess we have to start a new streak.

 

[JTH]

Re: Thursday's Gap

I guess we have to start a new streak.

Yea, it was good that is lasted as long as it did, I'd love to see some more

 

[JTH]

S&P 500 by weight

Good morning

Thursday was in the red across all 11 sectors with XLV’s Healthcare ETF losing -2.07% on the day. The sectors highlighted with purple flags are all trading below their 500-SMA. This SMA takes us back to 11-Nov-2021, roughly 2 years. Essentially we have 7 sectors with a combined S&P 500 weight of 49.70% underperforming the 2-Year timeframe.


On the broader view of the Sectors, once again it’s Tech leading the way. Roughly speaking Tech has earned us 11.77% of the S&P 500’s 13.23% YTD gains. Tech’s XLK Etf is currently weighted at 29% of the S&P 500 Index, this might be the highest weighting I recall seeing.


Looking at the Top-10 Weighted stocks, all of them have contributed gains to the S&P 500 YTD. If at the end of 2022 you had invested 10K equally into each of the Top-10 your 100K would be worth 172.6K today.


Thanks for reading, have a great holiday weekend.

 

[JTH]

Sunday

Good morning


Friday’s IFTs with gains/losses have not been added to the Tracker due to the Holiday. Keeping in mind that Thursday was a down day, the AutoTracker’s Top-600 are 2.16% MTD, with the Top-50 at 3.07%. Allocation-wise, within the Top-50 there was 24% increase into the G/F-Funds, with nearly 50% in the C-Fund.



For the S&P-500, the Average of all positive November YTD closes is 15.11%. On Friday we closed at 15% (from this perspective) we are doing great.

 

[tsptalk]

Re: Sunday

Good morning

Friday’s IFTs with gains/losses have not been added to the Tracker due to the Holiday. K

I may have screwed up because I was given wrong information from the Thrift Line, or they misunderstood my question. The TSP DID post process for Friday? The questions is, were they allowing transactions?

Crap! So sorry.

 

[JTH]

Re: Sunday

I may have screwed up because I was given wrong information from the Thrift Line, or they misunderstood my question. The TSP DID post process for Friday? The questions is, were they allowing transactions?

Crap! So sorry.

All good, I'll repost after the update, thx.

 

[JTH]

Monday

Good morning

Thursday (while down) did give us a Double Top. Then Friday gave us a Double Top Breakout, while at the same time filling in the September gap (which began the -10% correction). Within this Fibonacci range we’ve recovered 61.8%. Most important (for me) we’ve made a higher high, perhaps from this we can work towards a higher swing low and thus establish an uptrend.


From 1960-2022 the average November monthly high (in percentage terms) is 4.95%. This is the high of ALL Novembers (even the ones which closed negative). November 2023 is currently above this level at 5.28% MTD.


On the Day of Week Chart, our 27-Day win ratio has jumped up to 55.6%.

The last 9 of 11 days have closed up.
The last 9 of 11 days which gaped up closed up.
The last 8 of 11 days which gaped down closed down (5 of 6 closed < -1%)


It should be a fun week, since it's the week prior to Thanksgiving, we may begin to see below-average volume. Last year the Monday of Thanksgiving week was the peak for November. On Friday 27-Nov we gaped down at the open -.78% and closed the day down -2.27%.

To leave on a good note, here's 2020 which looks somewhat simular to our current price action.