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JTH's Account Talk
- Thread starter JTH
- Start date
JTH
Well-known member
Re: MONTHS
Good morning
Last week the S&P 500 closed down 4 days in a row, the last time this happened was in the first 4 days of May, which was the 2nd weakest month this year, but still managed to eek out a .25% gain. Over the past 21 years, the 1st day of August closed down 13 of 21 times. Of those 13 times, the month closed down 5 of 13. In 2002 & 2004, the first 3 days of August closed down, in 2019 the first 4 days closed down, here's how those months ended.
2019 -1.81%
2004 .23%
2002 .49%
For the AutoTracker's Top-600 we lost -1.49% last week with the Top-50 losing -1.76%
The Day-of-Week stats found some short-term weakness, but Monday still has a strong winning ratio, while Wednesday continues to be a stinker.
The Top 10 has taken on some short-term weakness and even dipped some red into the medium-term timeframes. Apple & Microsoft have a weighted 13.96% of the S&P 500 index, both have close below their 10/50 Day SMAs and have a negative 5-day & 1-Month performance. Eight of the Top-10 closed both below their 10-Day SMA, and have a negative 5-day performance.
On the 10-Day SMA, 9 of 11 sectors are in the red, on the 5-Day performance 10 of 11 are in the red.
As for myself, I'll gladly embrace a pullback, it would be nice to get some lower prices.
Have a great week!
Good morning
Last week the S&P 500 closed down 4 days in a row, the last time this happened was in the first 4 days of May, which was the 2nd weakest month this year, but still managed to eek out a .25% gain. Over the past 21 years, the 1st day of August closed down 13 of 21 times. Of those 13 times, the month closed down 5 of 13. In 2002 & 2004, the first 3 days of August closed down, in 2019 the first 4 days closed down, here's how those months ended.
2019 -1.81%
2004 .23%
2002 .49%
For the AutoTracker's Top-600 we lost -1.49% last week with the Top-50 losing -1.76%
The Day-of-Week stats found some short-term weakness, but Monday still has a strong winning ratio, while Wednesday continues to be a stinker.
The Top 10 has taken on some short-term weakness and even dipped some red into the medium-term timeframes. Apple & Microsoft have a weighted 13.96% of the S&P 500 index, both have close below their 10/50 Day SMAs and have a negative 5-day & 1-Month performance. Eight of the Top-10 closed both below their 10-Day SMA, and have a negative 5-day performance.
On the 10-Day SMA, 9 of 11 sectors are in the red, on the 5-Day performance 10 of 11 are in the red.
As for myself, I'll gladly embrace a pullback, it would be nice to get some lower prices.
Have a great week!
JTH
Well-known member
Good morning
2023 YTD, over the past 153 sessions:
When the S&P 500 gapped up at the open, the session closed positive with a 73% win ratio, and an average gain of .46%
When the S&P 500 gapped down at the open, the session closed negative with a 67% lose ratio, and an average loss of -.26%
There's been very little change in the average allocation for the Top-600.
Across the Day-of-Week stats:
Last 6 Mondays have close up, Last 2 Tue/Fri have close down, and the last 3 Wednesdays have closed down.
2023 YTD, over the past 153 sessions:
When the S&P 500 gapped up at the open, the session closed positive with a 73% win ratio, and an average gain of .46%
When the S&P 500 gapped down at the open, the session closed negative with a 67% lose ratio, and an average loss of -.26%
There's been very little change in the average allocation for the Top-600.
Across the Day-of-Week stats:
Last 6 Mondays have close up, Last 2 Tue/Fri have close down, and the last 3 Wednesdays have closed down.
JTH
Well-known member
Happy Friday, Here’s an update to the Linear Regression Channel going back to the Oct 2022 bottom.
The S&P 500 is close to Standard Deviation One (SD 1 S 1st) at 4360.52, so from the long-term view of 211 sessions, we are within the statistical range. The chart below list SD 1, 2, & 3
The S&P 500 is close to Standard Deviation One (SD 1 S 1st) at 4360.52, so from the long-term view of 211 sessions, we are within the statistical range. The chart below list SD 1, 2, & 3
JTH
Well-known member
Good morning.
On Friday, the S&P 500 closed down for the 4th consecutive day.
From the previous 21 years, across 5,287 trading sessions this had happened 177 times, an average of 8.43 times per year, or 3.3% of the time. Yet to happen this Monday, a 5th consecutive close down had previously happened 69 times or 1.3% of the time.
MTD we are down -4.78%
From the previous 63 Months of August, 26 closed down, with 11 closing down more than the -4.06% average of all negative 26 closes.
Listed below are the 11 months of August with the worst closes.
On the Day-of-Week chart:
At 44.4%, this is the lowest 27-day win ratio we’ve had going back to 25 May 2023 or 59 trading sessions.
The last 7 Mondays closed up, while the last 4 Wednesdays closed down, also the last 3 Tue/Fri have closed down.
From the Index-weighted perspective, the Top-10 & Top-50 are underperforming on both the 10/50 SMA, and the 5-Day & the 1-Month timeframes. All of the Top-10 and 39 of the Top-50 are below their 10-Day SMA.
As expected, the same pain is also reflected across the sector ETFs with Consumer Discretionary XLY losing -4.16% last week.
From the previous week's Top-600 allocations, little has changed.
For myself, I've been conservatively buying sector positions during this pullback, a 10% correction would make my day, but I'll take whatever is offered, have a great week!
On Friday, the S&P 500 closed down for the 4th consecutive day.
From the previous 21 years, across 5,287 trading sessions this had happened 177 times, an average of 8.43 times per year, or 3.3% of the time. Yet to happen this Monday, a 5th consecutive close down had previously happened 69 times or 1.3% of the time.
MTD we are down -4.78%
From the previous 63 Months of August, 26 closed down, with 11 closing down more than the -4.06% average of all negative 26 closes.
Listed below are the 11 months of August with the worst closes.
On the Day-of-Week chart:
At 44.4%, this is the lowest 27-day win ratio we’ve had going back to 25 May 2023 or 59 trading sessions.
The last 7 Mondays closed up, while the last 4 Wednesdays closed down, also the last 3 Tue/Fri have closed down.
From the Index-weighted perspective, the Top-10 & Top-50 are underperforming on both the 10/50 SMA, and the 5-Day & the 1-Month timeframes. All of the Top-10 and 39 of the Top-50 are below their 10-Day SMA.
As expected, the same pain is also reflected across the sector ETFs with Consumer Discretionary XLY losing -4.16% last week.
From the previous week's Top-600 allocations, little has changed.
For myself, I've been conservatively buying sector positions during this pullback, a 10% correction would make my day, but I'll take whatever is offered, have a great week!
JTH
Well-known member
Good morning
Here's an update plus two additions to the long-term linear charts.
Given these perspectives, I would estimate we are within 2-5% of "fair price".
The daily chart going back 216 trading days to the Oct-22 bottom is 2.20% under the middle linear line.
The weekly chart going back 178 weeks to the Mar-20 pandemic bottom is 2.11% under the middle linear line.
The Monthly chart going back 173 Months to the Mar-09 banking crisis bottom is 4.53% above the middle linear line.
Here's an update plus two additions to the long-term linear charts.
Given these perspectives, I would estimate we are within 2-5% of "fair price".
The daily chart going back 216 trading days to the Oct-22 bottom is 2.20% under the middle linear line.
The weekly chart going back 178 weeks to the Mar-20 pandemic bottom is 2.11% under the middle linear line.
The Monthly chart going back 173 Months to the Mar-09 banking crisis bottom is 4.53% above the middle linear line.
JTH
Well-known member
Good morning
On the Monthly Projection chart, the Top-6 numbers were off (only included the Top-5) so those numbers are revised. In addition, I've added an Intra-Month average High/Low to give a better perspective where prices can flow throughout the month (not just the close).
On the Day-of-Week chart, the last 8 Mondays have closed up, and the last 4 Tuesdays down. Our 27-Day 41% win ratio is the lowest since 15-Mar or 113 sessions. This past 13-Mar was our current 2023 low, marking the beginning of this 20.96% rally.
Per the recent norm, there's been little movement in allocations.
Have a great week!
On the Monthly Projection chart, the Top-6 numbers were off (only included the Top-5) so those numbers are revised. In addition, I've added an Intra-Month average High/Low to give a better perspective where prices can flow throughout the month (not just the close).
On the Day-of-Week chart, the last 8 Mondays have closed up, and the last 4 Tuesdays down. Our 27-Day 41% win ratio is the lowest since 15-Mar or 113 sessions. This past 13-Mar was our current 2023 low, marking the beginning of this 20.96% rally.
Per the recent norm, there's been little movement in allocations.
Have a great week!
JTH
Well-known member
Good morning
I'm just waiting for the month to finish out before posting a blog for September's stats.
Historically speaking, based on the metrics I use (63-Years of Monthly, 21-years of daily) September (on the monthly scale) is the worst of the 12 months.
September has the fewest positive months of all 454 positive months.
September has the fewest positive months in the Top 20% of 151 months.
September has the most months which closed negative from all 302 months closing down.
September has the most negative months in the Bottom 20% of 151 months.
I'm just waiting for the month to finish out before posting a blog for September's stats.
Historically speaking, based on the metrics I use (63-Years of Monthly, 21-years of daily) September (on the monthly scale) is the worst of the 12 months.
September has the fewest positive months of all 454 positive months.
September has the fewest positive months in the Top 20% of 151 months.
September has the most months which closed negative from all 302 months closing down.
September has the most negative months in the Bottom 20% of 151 months.
:laugh::laugh:
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