JTH's Account Talk

[JTH]

Re: MONTHS

JTH, Great charts but I think you need a slight correction for your days of the week profit/loss.

Yea, thanks, I'm still dealing with brain fog from the time change.

"For the Day Of The Week Chart, MON/THUR/FRI Good, TUE/WED bad.

 

[JTH]

Good morning

Indicative of the broad participation we've been seeing, with the exception of Consumer Staples, short-term momentum & performance of the sectors looks good.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

JTH, Great Charts and info! Thank you! :smile:

 

[JTH]

Good morning

On Wednesday, the S&P 500 closed up YTD 11.16%. On various podcast it's been mentioned this is the largest performance gap between the S&P 500's standard Market cap weighted index and the equal-weighted index, ever.

Based on the Index's weight & YTD performance, the Top-10 has contributed 16.67% to the index. Meaning, that without the Top-10, the index "in theory" would be down about -5.51%

 

[JTH]

Good evening

I'm on the road this week, headed for some swamp camping, so I'm posting Monday's charts early. For the Day of Week stats, little has changed. Mon/Thur/Fri good, Tue/Wed bad. The last 3 Wed down, last 4 Thur up, and last 3 Fri closed up.


Compared to the previous 63 months of June, the current 2023 June looks good, we are 2.85% MTD and above the average-of-all-positive closes.


The AutoTracker shows the G/C/S funds are heavily allocated.


Have a great weekend!

 

[tsptalk]

Thanks, JTH! Enjoy the swamp.

 

[JTH]

Good evening

This price action has been impressive. Now that we've punched through the previous 2022 Aug high, using the most recent low from March, I've redrawn the the Fibonacci levels.


On another positive note, we are currently 6.32% QTD, the historical 2nd Quarter projection has reached the average-of-all-gains.

 

[JTH]

Re: MONTHS

​Good morning

At 5.89% MTD, if we can maintain these levels, then we may see a June that is in the Top 10% of the previous 63 Months of June.

[TABLE="width: 0"]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #EFEFEF, align: center"]2019[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #B7E1CD, align: center"]6.89%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #EFEFEF, align: center"]1999[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #B7E1CD, align: center"]5.44%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #EFEFEF, align: center"]1987[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #B7E1CD, align: center"]4.79%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #EFEFEF, align: center"]1977[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #B7E1CD, align: center"]4.54%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #EFEFEF, align: center"]1975[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #B7E1CD, align: center"]4.43%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #EFEFEF, align: center"]1997[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #B7E1CD, align: center"]4.35%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

 

[JTH]

Re: MONTHS

Incredible price action, we've closed up 6 days straight and are working towards 7.

From the previous 21 years, 7-times has only happened .55% across 5287 trading sessions.

 

[JTH]

Re: MONTHS

Good afternoon

Across the 4 major indexes I track, my own personal line in the sand is the 500 Day SMA. This week, 3 of the 4 major indexes closed above this moving average, thus this places me under Bull market "Risk on" conditions.



For my own allocation, I've been invested in the C-Fund 10% of 120 days (under invested) but have taken little risk. I've waited since 23 March for a pullback which has yet to happen. Given the substantial run-up we've had, perhaps we could see a 3-5% cut. Either ways, I expect to take a partial allocation before the end of the month.



If you're following the 63-Year historical projection chart, we are just short of SPX 4471. This level is the average-of-all-gains which averages only the years which closed positive.

 

[JTH]

Re: MONTHS

Good evening

I'm flying back home tomorrow, hope to be home Tue evening, so I'll post these charts early. On the Daily S&P 500, we see strong volume from last Friday. 4200 looks interesting as both the 500 SMA and .382% Fibonacci levels are there. This would be about a -5.5% retracement from the top.


On the Day of Week charts, the last 27 days have a 63% win ratio, we are cooking. Per the usual, MON/THUR/FRI good, TUE/WED bad, but the last 3 TUE have closed up. Also the last 5 THUR have closed up.


Here's where it gets interesting, the S&P 500 is up 14.85% YTD. Based on current weight (roughly speaking) the Top-10 have earned 19% and the Top-50 have earned us 21.56%. By this fuzzy science, that means the bottom 450 are down -6.71%


Tech, tech, and more tech. Based on Tech's 28.09% index weight, this sector has earned us 11% YTD for the S&P 500.


Lastly, the Auto tracker's Top 50 is dominated by the C-Fund. The Top-600's average is 8.32% YTD, while the C-Fund holds the 16th position. Once again, it proves the vast majority of us have a difficult time outperforming the markets (under TSP's limitations).


Have a great week!

 

[JTH]

Good evening

A quick look at the AutoTracker's Top-600 shows the Top-50 is once again dominated by C-Funders. Interestingly, while the I-Fund is up 9.98% YTD (beating out the G/F/S funds) it only has a 5% allocation amongst the Top-600.

 

[JTH]

Good morning

With the last week of Q2, QTD we are up 5.82%.



Looking at the Daily stats. Even with the most recent 5-day -1.39% decline, the last 7 of 11 days have closed up. Also, the last 6 Thursdays have closed up.

 

[JTH]

Good morning

The Top-10 reflects the recent short-term weakness in the markets. In particular, 3 large tech names which make up 13% of the S&P 500's weight, have shown the most weakness.

 

[JTH]

Good morning

A quick look at the sectors, it's been a challenging year for Energy & Utilities.

 

[JTH]

Good morning

In terms of the S&P 500's price above the 50/200 SMA (compared to the previous 21-years) we are currently within the Top-20 Percentile range. Basically we are slighter overbought, but not what I would call an "extreme" condition.

 

[JTH]

Good morning

My YTD performance is 6.13%, while the C-Fund is 15.45% which has left a -9.32% performance gap. The only way to make up the difference is to take on some additional risk. IFT 30% C-Fund today, looking to eek out some gains (should we go higher), or buy more in next month (should we go lower).




Meanwhile, the world view looks healthier than the last time I posted this chart. Both the Equal-Weighted & Value Indexes have gained strength. Additionally, the world indexes are weaker, and the I-Fund's Hong Kong is deep in the red.



This weekend I will post blogs for Q3, and July, take care!

 

[Whipsaw]

I think I did close to the same thing... only I'm still underwater. Talking heads on F0x B. expecting weakness through the end of the summer and then a run up to about where we are now... FWIW. Economy is strong despite many inflation and raising rates. Another expects rate cuts next spring. Again... FWIW.

 

[WorkFE]

JTH, my performance YTD is much like yours.
Figure I can squeak out another 1.5 - 2% in the G and be satisfied for the year.

My goal is 6+ so I'm already in my lane.

 

[tsptalk]

You are not alone. Many money managers are also lagging the indices badly this year. Because of the pressure to perform, many of them are forced to chase, especially here at the end of the quarter window dress their quarterly reports with winners that they did not own for most of the quarter. The question is how much selling will they do once we get passed the holiday and into the 3rd quarter, knowing there are now certainly more interest rate hikes coming?