JTH's Account Talk

[99percent]

iShares Russell 2000 Index (ETF) (IWM) news: The Crash No One Is Talking About - Seeking Alpha

Small caps

 

[amoeba]

Anyone who has read my most recent comment in Ebbs Account talk about his system, should know my impressions of this subject. Please refrain from discussing it within this thread, there are plenty of other places to take this discussion.

Moving on, I did not like this morning's price action, it looks better now but there are still some questions left unresolved. The last time I recall seeing a bottoming tail being put in at the top of a wave, after a very minor pullback, it resulted in a breakout. Whether or not this situation will unfold in the same way is questionable at best. Although I felt like I wanted to eject today, the reality is there wasn't enough data to bring me to make the exit. There is a difference between emotional experience and statistical experience, in this case the latter won my decision making process today.

If I had some more IFT's I would have waded back INTO S-fund today; I'm seeing increasing volume on the large caps, departure of the large and smalls north of >2% this week (is it over 4% the last 3 months?) and not enough volatility to worry about. Yet. Can't get all worked up about the P/E of small caps like some people do (today's WSJ). I don't like bailing on a down day more than anyone else, but I won't stick my head in the sand for 10 more days hoping that if I don't pay attention, the market is more likely to turn around.

 

[airlift]

Why discriminate? Make EVERY night a beer night!

If you do this, for sure you'll get a pot belly on you!

 

[JTH]

Lot's of 1st

1 Day away from an IFT reload, 1% away from another 52-week high, get ready to burn your 1st IFT on the 1st of May, or you could just sit aside and watch others climb the wall of worry...

View attachment 28399

 

[amoeba]

Lot's of 1st

1 Day away from an IFT reload, 1% away from another 52-week high, get ready to burn your 1st IFT on the 1st of May, or you could just sit aside and watch others climb the wall of worry...

View attachment 28399

you talking to me? (i.e., 100% G-funders). I don't necessarily agree there's gonna be much more climb early May. Could be. Might not. Perhaps another 1% but even that may be optimistic.

 

[JTH]

you talking to me? (i.e., 100% G-funders). I don't necessarily agree there's gonna be much more climb early May. Could be. Might not. Perhaps another 1% but even that may be optimistic.

Lol, I can always count on your for a stiff dose of negative Nancy. You should be happier, you're in the top 200 with 1.39% and you've managed to do it in just 20 IFTs. Quit playing the nickel slots and move up to the quarters, nothing ventured, nothing gained

 

[rktect1]

Lol, I can always count on your for a stiff dose of negative Nancy. You should be happier, you're in the top 200 with 1.39% and you've managed to do it in just 20 IFTs. Quit playing the nickel slots and move up to the quarters, nothing ventured, nothing gained

I would like this more if I were not at negative 4% Those dollar slots are killing me.

 

[BichonFreeze]

Tapering continues! And the market seems to like it so far....

 

[airlift]

JTH,

Your decision is proving you right. You decided to stay invested and to climb the wall of worry. DBA and some others also decided to stay invested, even though their system was calling them to sell. It seem clear to me that, despite so much uncertainty in the market, at least both DBA and you, were right. I believe that both of you want to be invested for the "first couple to days of May", and then sell (or not)?

Based on what seems to be a correct decision to remain invested in TSP stock funds, and understanding that everyone takes responsibility for their own actions, I need to ask you and others:

Hypothetical, if you had one more actionable IFT, and if you could use it right now, would buying right now before 4:00 PM, COB; or would you wait until tomorrow (May 1st) to Buy? Thank you.

 

[ravensfan]

JTH,

Your decision is proving you right. You decided to stay invested and to climb the wall of worry. DBA and some others also decided to stay invested, even though their system was calling them to sell. It seem clear to me that, despite so much uncertainty in the market, at least both DBA and you, were right. I believe that both of you want to be invested for the "first couple to days of May", and then sell (or not)?

Based on what seems to be a correct decision to remain invested in TSP stock funds, and understanding that everyone takes responsibility for their own actions, I need to ask you and others:

Hypothetical, if you had one more actionable IFT, and if you could use it right now, would buying right now before 4:00 PM, COB; or would you wait until tomorrow (May 1st) to Buy? Thank you.

Airlift,

If I had one more IFT, I would probably change my allocation to a combination of the C and S funds as I am currently 100% S. However, and this is not to say what has happened in the past will happen again, but the last time the S fund posted consecutive losing months was April and May of 2012. For that reason I am content to hold my position and see how May plays out. Just my two cents.

 

[Whipsaw]

JTH,

Your decision is proving you right. You decided to stay invested and to climb the wall of worry. DBA and some others also decided to stay invested, even though their system was calling them to sell. It seem clear to me that, despite so much uncertainty in the market, at least both DBA and you, were right. I believe that both of you want to be invested for the "first couple to days of May", and then sell (or not)?

Based on what seems to be a correct decision to remain invested in TSP stock funds, and understanding that everyone takes responsibility for their own actions, I need to ask you and others:

Hypothetical, if you had one more actionable IFT, and if you could use it right now, would buying right now before 4:00 PM, COB; or would you wait until tomorrow (May 1st) to Buy? Thank you.

Purely from the IFT conservation perspective, being invested going into the month provides the ability to exit the market and re-enter again that month. Using an IFT to buy at the begnning of the month only leaves one more 'move' (i.e. rebalance, buy more if not fully invested, or take some off the table). Once all IFTs are burned, there is still the ability to move any funds still in equities to the 'G' fund in any increment desired (not limited).

As for staying in through the weakness... based on the seasonality that the first few days of May are strong was a driver for me (JTH says its wind at your back), as well as to have the additional IFT in May. Generally folks are talking about staying in through part of next week to catch the strenth of early May then stepping aside.

 

[airlift]

Purely from the IFT conservation perspective, being invested going into the month provides the ability to exit the market and re-enter again that month. Using an IFT to buy at the begnning of the month only leaves one more 'move' (i.e. rebalance, buy more if not fully invested, or take some off the table). Once all IFTs are burned, there is still the ability to move any funds still in equities to the 'G' fund in any increment desired (not limited).

As for staying in through the weakness... based on the seasonality that the first few days of May are strong was a driver for me (JTH says its wind at your back), as well as to have the additional IFT in May. Generally folks are talking about staying in through part of next week to catch the strenth of early May then stepping aside.

Whipsaw
Thanks again.

 

[airlift]

Airlift,

If I had one more IFT, I would probably change my allocation to a combination of the C and S funds as I am currently 100% S. However, and this is not to say what has happened in the past will happen again, but the last time the S fund posted consecutive losing months was April and May of 2012. For that reason I am content to hold my position and see how May plays out. Just my two cents.

ravensfan,

I thank you for your opinion. It is very helpful.

 

[JTH]

Hypothetical, if you had one more actionable IFT, and if you could use it right now, would buying right now before 4:00 PM, COB; or would you wait until tomorrow (May 1st) to Buy? Thank you.

We are already outside my buy window, folks can choose to either chase the wave now, or watch in disgust as it passes by. Truth is not a damm person here can predict the price action, only react to it. Let me spell it out for the G-Funders who are sucking wind, go ahead and jump in, I need you to push prices up so I can slip out the back door...

1) S&P 500, highest close in 23 days, .65% away from new 52-week all time high

2) Transports, 1.33% away from new 52-week all time high, 13th highest closing volume over past 6-months

3) NASDAQ 100, 9 of last 11 days closed positive

4) VIX, 8 of last 11 days closed down

 

[99percent]

We are already outside my buy window, folks can choose to either chase the wave now, or watch in disgust as it passes by. Truth is not a damm person here can predict the price action, only react to it. Let me spell it out for the G-Funders who are sucking wind, go ahead and jump in, I need you to push prices up so I can slip out the back door...

1) S&P 500, highest close in 23 days, .65% away from new 52-week all time high

2) Transports, 1.33% away from new 52-week all time high, 13th highest closing volume over past 6-months

3) NASDAQ 100, 9 of last 11 days closed positive

4) VIX, 8 of last 11 days closed down

Hey don't beat around the bush. Tell us what you really think.

 

[Intrepid_Timer]

We are already outside my buy window, folks can choose to either chase the wave now, or watch in disgust as it passes by. Truth is not a damm person here can predict the price action, only react to it. Let me spell it out for the G-Funders who are sucking wind, go ahead and jump in, I need you to push prices up so I can slip out the back door...

1) S&P 500, highest close in 23 days, .65% away from new 52-week all time high

2) Transports, 1.33% away from new 52-week all time high, 13th highest closing volume over past 6-months

3) NASDAQ 100, 9 of last 11 days closed positive

4) VIX, 8 of last 11 days closed down

I feel another post from Ebb coming....................

 

[userque]

...Truth is not a damm person here can predict the price action, only react to it....

Hey JT, I know you have a brigade of followers with their fingers on the 'like' button trigger, so I don't mean to offend: However,

Prediction is actually based upon previous price action. Like it or not, that's also what trendlines do: predict channels/support/resistance. EMA's predict support/resistance, etc. etc. All based upon previous price action. So too with MACD's, Bollinger's, Fibonacci's etc. etc.

Tomaaato/tomato: prediction/reaction. No difference.

I say again: Prediction is a reaction to previous price action. How copy?

Simply because someone is not using what you are using to predict price action doesn't mean to suggest that they aren't, in fact, (attempting) doing the same thing that you are (attempting) doing: predicting price action.

Premium guys/followers making ~11% so far this year and/or guys making ~30%APR in realistic trading simulators may also beg to differ.

Good Luck in the Markets!

 

[JTH]

Hey JT, I know you have a brigade of followers with their fingers on the 'like' button trigger, so I don't mean to offend: However,

Prediction is actually based upon previous price action. Like it or not, that's also what trendlines do: predict channels/support/resistance. EMA's predict support/resistance, etc. etc. All based upon previous price action. So too with MACD's, Bollinger's, Fibonacci's etc. etc.

Tomaaato/tomato: prediction/reaction. No difference.

I say again: Prediction is a reaction to previous price action. How copy?

Simply because someone is not using what you are using to predict price action doesn't mean to suggest that they aren't, in fact, (attempting) doing the same thing that you are (attempting) doing: predicting price action.

Premium guys/followers making ~11% so far this year and/or guys making ~30%APR in realistic trading simulators may also beg to differ.

Good Luck in the Markets!

Don't make any mistakes here, I do not have a brigade of followers, I'm only as good as my last IFT and when at the bottom of the tracker nobody cares what I think about the markets (and they would be wise not to.) The fact that you would even say that tells me you are what we call a "player hater" that's a good thing, I hope this motivates you to improve your performance. Don't get me wrong, I player hate all the time, it's healthy to be competitive, there's nothing better than winning.

As for the argument about predicting price vs. reacting to it, if you want this to mean the same thing, then by all means believe that. I know for a fact that I cannot predict price and I've accepted this truism. Indicators do not predict price, they are written based off of past price, they react to price and are nothing more than mathematical formulas. Trendlines do not predict price, they project the potential for price based off past prices, just another form of linear regression.

As for the Premium Service guys, there is only 1 person here who as proven their performance year after year. All others have either failed miserably or or have yet to prove themselves.

The fact that you would wish me "luck" in the markets is probably the most insulting thing anyone in this forum has ever said to me and this is the second time you've done that. I forgave you the first time. If you want to pick arguments off of one liners than go elsewhere, perhaps the political forum is your thing. If you want to have an honest discussion about price levels than I'm all ears, technical analysis is what I'm here for, anything else is just a waste of my time.

 

[userque]

Don't make any mistakes here, I do not have a brigade of followers, I'm only as good as my last IFT and when at the bottom of the tracker nobody cares what I think about the markets (and they would be wise not to.) The fact that you would even say that tells me you are what we call a "player hater" that's a good thing, I hope this motivates you to improve your performance. Don't get me wrong, I player hate all the time, it's healthy to be competitive, there's nothing better than winning.

As for the argument about predicting price vs. reacting to it, if you want this to mean the same thing, then by all means believe that. I know for a fact that I cannot predict price and I've accepted this truism. Indicators do not predict price, they are written based off of past price, they react to price and are nothing more than mathematical formulas. Trendlines do not predict price, they project the potential for price based off past prices, just another form of linear regression.

As for the Premium Service guys, there is only 1 person here who as proven their performance year after year. All others have either failed miserably or or have yet to prove themselves.

The fact that you would wish me "luck" in the markets is probably the most insulting thing anyone in this forum has ever said to me and this is the second time you've done that. I forgave you the first time. If you want to pick arguments off of one liners than go elsewhere, perhaps the political forum is your thing. If you want to have an honest discussion about price levels than I'm all ears, technical analysis is what I'm here for, anything else is just a waste of my time.

....yeah ok....

Good Luck in the Markets!

 

[JTH]

Futures were flat-to-positive till about 2 hours ago, then went flat-to-negative

May 2013
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