JTH's Account Talk

[ravensfan]

Back in the box

View attachment 28436

That sure is a purdy chart Jason. Now can you make it set a new 2014 high?

 

[JTH]

Are the SPX and the Wilshire 4500 Completion Index on track to close higher this afternoon?

Agg just put in a tweezer on the 15 minute

View attachment 28438

 

[Birchtree]

I don't see no tweezer but I can see a cherry twizzler.

 

[BichonFreeze]

Jobs up: 288,000 unemployment down to 6.3% Seems like a very strong report.

 

[amoeba]

Jobs up: 288,000 unemployment down to 6.3% Seems like a very strong report.

No it isn't; participation rate continues to drop to 30+ year lows; wages remain flat; and 288K is still a very modest number - just better than seen in the last 2-3 years; nothing to crow about.

Expect the smart money to sell on it tomorrow, probably in the last half hour of trading to clean up on the dumb suckers.

 

[JTH]

Brain is fried!

Just spent the better part of this weekend writing an essay against Dollar Cost Averaging, there's nothing worse then scouring peer-reviewed papers looking for opposition to the virtues of Buy & Hold. You would think there would be no shortage of markets timers after the 2007-2009 bear market decline but no... There's no shortage of fire-&-forget buy & holders out there convinced they will survive no matter what the outcome, let's just hope they retire at the proper time.

As to this week's outlook, to say that I'm not optimistic would be a bit of an understatement. The disparities between the major indexes is concerning, with each day finding the price action mixed with nothing flowing in the same direction at the same time. The battle between the large caps & small caps is concerning at best, the two can only fight each other for so long before one needs to follow the other, the question is, in which direction will it be?

When I see mixes price action such as this, it reminds me of what happens at a major top, where the little guy buys into the hype, while the larger investor slips out the back door, thus this creates the mixed-to-flat price action we are seeing today.

If we count backwards in increments of 4 years, for the S&P 500, for the month of May in 2010, 2006, 2002 & 1998 all closed down and the same holds true for the Russell 2000, will we break the 4-year cycle?

 

[BichonFreeze]

No it isn't; participation rate continues to drop to 30+ year lows; wages remain flat; and 288K is still a very modest number - just better than seen in the last 2-3 years; nothing to crow about.

Expect the smart money to sell on it tomorrow, probably in the last half hour of trading to clean up on the dumb suckers.

Note the time I posted my comment at 8:33 A.M., I just had enough information to look at the numbers from the 8:30 release, not enough time to look into the details.

It will be interesting to see how much if any of this labor force shrinkage is attributed to Boomers retiring and/or individuals that now can quit their jobs because they kept it only for healthcare.

 

[Whipsaw]

JTH, first I've seen black, is that worse than red or neutral?

 

[jkenjohnson]

I am frustrated with the market right now. Looking at the futures, maybe it is time to sell in May and go away. However, I think last year the S&P gained 10% from May to October? Might as well just fip a coin or roll some dice.

 

[airlift]

Why are cash futures so negative. Economic numbers lately are not stellar, but they show that a slow but steady improvement in the economy is happening. Is it Ukraine, or a collective decision from the big boys, traders and the small investor stating that valuations are to high in relation to the real sustainable price for stocks?

 

[Birchtree]

All valid points but it's probably just a common head fake - we have those all the time.

 

[JTH]

Better to take the hit early in the trading session than late in the day, this way we still have time to recover some of the losses. A down Monday is nothing new, you've seen the stats

 

[Longstreet]

Why are cash futures so negative. Economic numbers lately are not stellar, but they show that a slow but steady improvement in the economy is happening. Is it Ukraine, or a collective decision from the big boys, traders and the small investor stating that valuations are to high in relation to the real sustainable price for stocks?

Perhaps "smart" money moving out and "dumb" money moving in? I think looking at context is important. As valuations get richer and richer, it's harder to support by "slow and steady". The richer the valuation, the higher the standard of being impressed to push the valuations higher. At least, in theory.....haha.

 

[airlift]

Better to take the hit early in the trading session than late in the day, this way we still have time to recover some of the losses. A down Monday is nothing new, you've seen the stats

Do your charts and indicators support a recovery, for example, does the long tail from today's bottom give you a good sense that the recovery today is more likely than not?

 

[JTH]

Brain is fried!

Just spent the better part of this weekend writing an essay against Dollar Cost Averaging, there's nothing worse then scouring peer-reviewed papers looking for opposition to the virtues of Buy & Hold. You would think there would be no shortage of markets timers after the 2007-2009 bear market decline but no... There's no shortage of fire-&-forget buy & holders out there convinced they will survive no matter what the outcome, let's just hope they retire at the proper time.

As to this week's outlook, to say that I'm not optimistic would be a bit of an understatement. The disparities between the major indexes is concerning, with each day finding the price action mixed with nothing flowing in the same direction at the same time. The battle between the large caps & small caps is concerning at best, the two can only fight each other for so long before one needs to follow the other, the question is, in which direction will it be?

When I see mixes price action such as this, it reminds me of what happens at a major top, where the little guy buys into the hype, while the larger investor slips out the back door, thus this creates the mixed-to-flat price action we are seeing today.

If we count backwards in increments of 4 years, for the S&P 500, for the month of May in 2010, 2006, 2002 & 1998 all closed down and the same holds true for the Russell 2000, will we break the 4-year cycle?

Do your charts and indicators support a recovery, for example, does the long tail from today's bottom give you a good sense that the recovery today is more likely than not?

That's not a question that can be answered at this time because it isn't proven to be a long tail until the day's close.

 

[JTH]

IFT EoB Today 100F

 

[JTH]

IFT EoB Today 100F

View attachment 28493

 

[jonfresno]

View attachment 28493

OK, I'll bite - why the heck did you do that? What was your reasoning? How could you knowing Tuesday is gonna be an up day?? :laugh:

Any technical reason, or more emotion? My emotions tell ne to get out, but I'm stuck with a bit of a loss in the S fund from my entry position (50S 50I). Stubborn move that will probably cost me.

 

[BichonFreeze]

Seems like a solid decision to me.

JTH may correct me, but I suppose some of the logic here is a Yellin induced yelling will cause a market sell-off on Wednesday when she mutters the words "we may or may not plan to increase interest rates in some point of the future." Of course any sell off in the major indicies is usually a good sign for those F'ers in the F fund.

That and it may be time to go away for May's sake. Why not buy and hold F until October?

Just because there was a strong May to October last year doesn't mean it'll be that way this year.

 

[rktect1]

I moved 50% F and 50% G with a -2.90% for the year. I am thinking that jth has this right, but my returns for this year should not inspire confidence.