JTH's Account Talk

[JTH]

JTH, whats the prognosis for next week in term of the indices?

The markets are going up, you know it, I know it, we all know it, but with the IFT limitations in place, I'd rather hold on to my gains than buy in at the top. I look at it like this, I can't compete with these markets and I'm happy with my performance this year, patience may not work all the time but it works most of the time and I have to believe my judgement is better than that of the herd, so I'll wait until I feel the conditions are right before jumping back in. Having said all that, I expect to jump in this week.

In the general sense of things, prices have pushed higher while indicator strength has not matched the previous market tops, this could suggest we have more room to the upside before we become overbought or we are setting up a divergence. As for November & Options Expiration Seasonality, it suggest we should get a pullback over the next 2-3 days. Of the 10 Top weighted S&P 500 stocks 8 are trading within their 52-week highs, 9 are trading above their 20/50/200 SMAs. Off the October 9th bottom, the large caps are leading the small caps. Within long-term price, the Transportation Index is near the top of it's 5-year weekly channel while the S&P 500 still shows plenty of overhead room.

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[JTH]

15 Nov 2013 - Bought ENPH @ 7.90[/ATTACH]

Sometimes a stock does what's supposed to do (when you don't own it) then when you buy it...

I'm Stopped out of ENPH @ 7.51

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[JimmyJoe]

Tomorrow looks like most stocks will rise.

 

[Birchtree]

The S&P 500 celebrates one year above the 200-day moving average - and Goldman says there's only a 67% chance the S&P will drop 10% at some point next year.

 

[Birchtree]

I'm glad you got back in the game - now the race to the finish line will be sweeter.

 

[JTH]

The only thing better than taking a crappy exit is taking a crappy entry, yea me, this month is a wash...

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[JimmyJoe]

Maybe a slight mistake but at least you are in for the holidays.

 

[Birchtree]

Please somebody send JTH a fine pair of sticky pants. That's really all he needs.

 

[sdouglas3]

Should be okay for this end of the year rally fixing to happen.

 

[JTH]

December's Stats

Previously Thursday gave us the strongest gains, while Friday had the best winning ratio. Now Friday has both the strongest gains and winning ratio with the last 8 of 10 Friday's closing in the green with an .39% average gain.

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The Options Expiration stats are a wash, I think this has more to do with the Christmas stats running just 3 days after Friday the 20th.

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As a whole, the Christmas stats look great, the winning ratio and average returns are slightly stronger leading into the holiday, compared to exiting the holiday.

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The New Year's Eve stats are mixed, we can see there is a sell-off on the the last day of the year, followed by strong average gains on the 1st day of the year.

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For the December stats we can see there is weakness from 5-13 December, followed by strength for the remainder of the Month. The 20th-24th of the month have a 75% winning ratio.

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Notes on Stats

The Mon-Fri stats are based on the last 10 Mondays and the 4 days following those Mondays. This means if there is a holiday on Monday, then those week's stats aren't included. If there's a holiday on a Friday then that day's stats were replaced by the following day (typically the Monday from the next week.)

The Options Expiration stats are based on the 3rd Friday of the month (20 years of the same month.)

Holiday Stats are based on the Day of the Holiday (not the day of the week or the trading day of the Month.)

The Daily stats for the Month are based on the trading day of the Month (not the calendar day of the month.) For December I take the first trading day of the Month over the last 20 years and add the winning/losing ratio, then average the gains of those 20 years for that 1 trading day.

 

[nnuut]

JTH your attachments are not showing, if I click on them this is what I get.
[h=2]vBulletin Message[/h] Invalid Attachment specified. If you followed a valid link, please notify the administrator

 

[JTH]

Good morning

I haven't had much time to manage my trades in the ROTH IRA so for now I'm putting eveything on Autopilot. I have limit orders in for SPXL, TNA nad CURE and plan to build around those positions. For those orders to execute, we'll need some form of a pullback, so I may be stuck in cash for awhile.

 

[JTH]

Good morning

I love it when the market's are open and I'm home.

29 Nov 2013 - Bought CURE @ 69.38

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[Birchtree]

It's time to show us something good about the Transports - don't you think?

 

[JTH]

It's time to show us something good about the Transports - don't you think?

I love those trans, they are healthy, looking strong & long.

 

[JTH]

29 Nov 2013 - Bought EDC @ 29.32

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[jkenjohnson]

Any concern about the sentiment survey (overly bullish)?

 

[JTH]

Any concern about the sentiment survey (overly bullish)?

I thought about that a few weeks ago while reading Coolhand's blog. I would be a fool to dismiss sentiment, it holds high regards in my toolbox, the problem is that I've never found a way to monetize it so I use it as a market-mood indicator along with the VIX. I do acknowledge the markets are pricy (not overbought) but I also think it's important to realize the majority of investors (our Auto Tracker included) are underperforming the benchmark S&P 500.

To put some perspective on this, of there are 787 Auto Tracker users who started on 1/1/2013 of those, only 55 are outperforming the S&P 500. That's only 7% and I would wager there's broad underperformance among hedge fund managers too.

The December stats I posted in my Signature line do show potential for a dip early in the month, but under current circumstances I see potential the dip buyers will step in for fear of closing out the year under the benchmark.

 

[jkenjohnson]

I thought about that a few weeks ago while reading Coolhand's blog. I would be a fool to dismiss sentiment, it holds high regards in my toolbox, the problem is that I've never found a way to monetize it so I use it as a market-mood indicator along with the VIX. I do acknowledge the markets are pricy (not overbought) but I also think it's important to realize the majority of investors (our Auto Tracker included) are underperforming the benchmark S&P 500.

To put some perspective on this, of there are 787 Auto Tracker users who started on 1/1/2013 of those, only 55 are outperforming the S&P 500. That's only 7% and I would wager there's broad underperformance among hedge fund managers too.

The December stats I posted in my Signature line do show potential for a dip early in the month, but under current circumstances I see potential the dip buyers will step in for fear of closing out the year under the benchmark.

Interesting observation. I think the FED screwed up all the systems with its' artificial inflation of stock prices. Had we been trading technicals, the story may have been quite different.

 

[JTH]

Here's a beautiful Daily Parallel Price Channel going back 13 months. This chart shows just how awesome the price action has been as we currently reside in the middle of the channel with a range of 1725-1880.

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