James48843
Well-known member
Well, so much for my thoughts yesterday that we'd have a 75% chance of moving higher today.
I need to shut my mouth more often. it jinxes things.
I need to shut my mouth more often. it jinxes things.
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James48843 Account Talk
- Thread starter James48843
- Start date
James48843
Well-known member
ok Folks- let's hear your opinions-
I am thinking about moving to "F" fund today- because:
#1. This is about to be a THREE DAY WEEKEND, and the next opportunity to do anything won't be until next Tuesday at noon.
#2. The "coronivius 2019" is continuing to grow, and the data coming out of China is suddenly changing slightly. Yesterday they posted laboratory confirmed number of cases, BUT they then said there are a LOT more cases that have been diagnosed, but not lab test results yet. Which means the numbers are going to continue to go UP UP UP over the next week.
#3. The stock market has already gone up over 4% in both the C and S funds this month. It is HIGHLY unusual for the funds to move MORE than 4% in a month- so I think it is prudent to capture gains now and move to a more relative safety.
On the flip side:
#1. There is a case to be made that the momentum continues to be positive.
#2. The charts are showing we're in the early stages of the next wave higher, which means it is very possible to get a full 1 or 2% higher from here, without much difficulty.
#3. If I expend the 2nd trade of the month now, I can't get BACK into stocks until next month.
What are YOUR thoughts? Why should I move to "F" from stocks, or NOT move to "F" from stocks?
Bonus- make an argument for why "F" would not be where I want to be, and that I should make it "G" instead.
What do you think? What should I do- Let it ride? Move to "F"? Move to "G" ? Or what, and why?
I want YOUR 2 cents- !
Go!
I am thinking about moving to "F" fund today- because:
#1. This is about to be a THREE DAY WEEKEND, and the next opportunity to do anything won't be until next Tuesday at noon.
#2. The "coronivius 2019" is continuing to grow, and the data coming out of China is suddenly changing slightly. Yesterday they posted laboratory confirmed number of cases, BUT they then said there are a LOT more cases that have been diagnosed, but not lab test results yet. Which means the numbers are going to continue to go UP UP UP over the next week.
#3. The stock market has already gone up over 4% in both the C and S funds this month. It is HIGHLY unusual for the funds to move MORE than 4% in a month- so I think it is prudent to capture gains now and move to a more relative safety.
On the flip side:
#1. There is a case to be made that the momentum continues to be positive.
#2. The charts are showing we're in the early stages of the next wave higher, which means it is very possible to get a full 1 or 2% higher from here, without much difficulty.
#3. If I expend the 2nd trade of the month now, I can't get BACK into stocks until next month.
What are YOUR thoughts? Why should I move to "F" from stocks, or NOT move to "F" from stocks?
Bonus- make an argument for why "F" would not be where I want to be, and that I should make it "G" instead.
What do you think? What should I do- Let it ride? Move to "F"? Move to "G" ? Or what, and why?
I want YOUR 2 cents- !
Go!
DreamboatAnnie
Well-known member
You should follow the DOODA System... Do the Opposite Of Dreamboat Annie! lol.. :laugh:
Okay... maybe reduce exposure to equities to a comfortable level. I'm thinking about it and you made some great points! F fund still looks good. I fund did not pan out so I am exiting my 20% today...probably will put some in F. C and S do look scary because they are so high, just not sure about exiting today....still debating as I did just get in. Best wishes to you James!! :smile:
Okay... maybe reduce exposure to equities to a comfortable level. I'm thinking about it and you made some great points! F fund still looks good. I fund did not pan out so I am exiting my 20% today...probably will put some in F. C and S do look scary because they are so high, just not sure about exiting today....still debating as I did just get in. Best wishes to you James!! :smile:
Cactus
Well-known member
Well, I've never done well trying to time entries into the F Fund and my best results come from following the trend. For me that means I'm still sticking with Equities. I've been looking for an exit but haven't jumped yet. I came close to getting out toward the end of January but stayed in because I don't day trade and would have gotten right back in again on Jan 31 to be in for February. I would have come out ahead on that trade but like I said I do better looking at longer term trends and am sticking with that for now.
As for the coronavirus, I still think it's media overblown hype -- especially when you compare the numbers to the flu. On top of that Inovio pharmaceuticals claims to have developed a vaccine within 3 hours of aquiring the strain: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/corona...ovio-pharmaceuticals-discovered-drug-testing/
As for the 4% return in February I think at least half of that is a recovery from January's loss. Just look at January last year. That was a huge return but really only a recovery from December's massive sell-off.
My 2 cents worth.
As for the coronavirus, I still think it's media overblown hype -- especially when you compare the numbers to the flu. On top of that Inovio pharmaceuticals claims to have developed a vaccine within 3 hours of aquiring the strain: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/corona...ovio-pharmaceuticals-discovered-drug-testing/
As for the 4% return in February I think at least half of that is a recovery from January's loss. Just look at January last year. That was a huge return but really only a recovery from December's massive sell-off.
My 2 cents worth.
rangerray
Active member
I'm following plan #57662 on TSPcalc, although my numbers don't match what they say I should have when I compare my Autotracker numbers to theirs and I don't know why. According to the plan, I should move my money to "F" on the 12th trading day of the month, so I'll submit an IFT on the 18th to be in the "f" fund as of the 12th trading day (the TSP is closed for President's Day).
https://www.tspcalc.com/seasonal.php?ID=57662
https://www.tspcalc.com/seasonal.php?ID=57662
James48843
Well-known member
Wow. I never heard of that website before. That is certainly interesting. How long have you been following that, and how is it doing for you?
Hi! I'm certainly no expert, and I pay attention to many of you who know a lot more than I do!
With that being said, I"ve never understood the need to throw all of my TSP funds in one particular fund. I tend to like mixed ratios of x% in stocks, x% in F or G. I prefer F for safety over G and have done fairly well in it, except for a brief period last fall when I did lose money. I'm not in the autotracker but TSP website says I have over 7% PIP for the past year. Certainly not as good as the 22% plus in C, but less risk as I am nearing retirement, and I'll take it.
So why not consider leaving a portion in stocks, while moving some to F?
With that being said, I"ve never understood the need to throw all of my TSP funds in one particular fund. I tend to like mixed ratios of x% in stocks, x% in F or G. I prefer F for safety over G and have done fairly well in it, except for a brief period last fall when I did lose money. I'm not in the autotracker but TSP website says I have over 7% PIP for the past year. Certainly not as good as the 22% plus in C, but less risk as I am nearing retirement, and I'll take it.
So why not consider leaving a portion in stocks, while moving some to F?
ravensfan
Well-known member
Of course you could do a partial move to F while leaving some in equities. That way you are covered whichever way it goes and then if the need arises because everything just went Tango Uniform, move to G. Don't think I would waste an IFT with a move to G just yet. Just another thought...
James48843
Well-known member
Thanks all for the input.
I've decided not to touch it today. Probably should have gone to "F", but I'm gonna let it ride. Have a great weekend!
I've decided not to touch it today. Probably should have gone to "F", but I'm gonna let it ride. Have a great weekend!
Boghie
Well-known member
Sorry James,
When I clicked on your thread the discussion was on coronavirus
. It put me a page or two back and I decided to provide a very informative reply!!!
Anyway, I am in the camp of moving some into G/F. I've been holding about 40% in G/F for some time. The growth in equities has made it a 65/35 split currently. That means that a quick dump will be buffered and a quick pump will provide a decent chunk to my retirement. Not a win/lose zero sum game...
When I clicked on your thread the discussion was on coronavirus
. It put me a page or two back and I decided to provide a very informative reply!!!Anyway, I am in the camp of moving some into G/F. I've been holding about 40% in G/F for some time. The growth in equities has made it a 65/35 split currently. That means that a quick dump will be buffered and a quick pump will provide a decent chunk to my retirement. Not a win/lose zero sum game...
FAAM
Active member
Too late for your decision today, just something to bounce against. I'm kinda like Mamikin (congrats, I gave ya your 1st "like") as too close to Rtmt (2yrs) & I'm pretty conservative; approaching $3/4M & don't wanna lose a bunch in the big drop I'm sure will come w/in 2-years.
So, I was in up above my knees with a mix if CSIL's, 20%F, the rest in G; did IFT Jan 30th pulled 8%F & all but my feet in the rest - back to G. Today, went back "in" mix of funds up to my knees +8% back to F (mostly sitting on G-pad).
My thoughts (no expert here, I combine lot's of what y'all share)... Fridays have been down lately some, yesterday's mixed results are with that to me; I too think the China-flu scare is over-hyped & over next week or so market will shrug-it; F is looking pretty good (yields bear-flag) + will go up if equities drop (safety play); per Coolhand & Tom, this wacky-market still leaning bullish, breadth & other indicators looking OK, volumns increased a little from the few-days of slump. There's some risk of an event over long-weekend but I figured, buy in when a little "low" today (my guess) and hope for some gains in 1st 2-3 days next week, see how it looks & maybe us 2nd IFT to pop-out if things don't look good.
Best of luck w/your decision James...
So, I was in up above my knees with a mix if CSIL's, 20%F, the rest in G; did IFT Jan 30th pulled 8%F & all but my feet in the rest - back to G. Today, went back "in" mix of funds up to my knees +8% back to F (mostly sitting on G-pad).
My thoughts (no expert here, I combine lot's of what y'all share)... Fridays have been down lately some, yesterday's mixed results are with that to me; I too think the China-flu scare is over-hyped & over next week or so market will shrug-it; F is looking pretty good (yields bear-flag) + will go up if equities drop (safety play); per Coolhand & Tom, this wacky-market still leaning bullish, breadth & other indicators looking OK, volumns increased a little from the few-days of slump. There's some risk of an event over long-weekend but I figured, buy in when a little "low" today (my guess) and hope for some gains in 1st 2-3 days next week, see how it looks & maybe us 2nd IFT to pop-out if things don't look good.
Best of luck w/your decision James...
James48843
Well-known member
My nose is twitching. Used my 2nd IFT to move to 60% ="G", 25%=F, and then the remaining 15% into the L-Income fund.
Good luck. (Hand me a klenex).
Good luck. (Hand me a klenex).
James48843
Well-known member
bless you. Keep those funds safe. Working on a slight cold myself. Don't forget to wash your hands. Do you prefer Kleenex or Puffs? I like Puffs.
James48843
Well-known member
Ok- looking quickly at the charts this morning, I’m seeing a minor resistance point on the S&P500 to be located at around 3080, and, if that doesn’t hold, the next major resistance point downward is located at around 2950-2975.
The uptick in overnight futures is definitely a fake-out. Not yet the time to jump back in. I’m out of moves for the month. THIS is where I WISH I had a third move. I don’t know if the opportunity will stretch into March, but it is possible.
Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk Forums
The uptick in overnight futures is definitely a fake-out. Not yet the time to jump back in. I’m out of moves for the month. THIS is where I WISH I had a third move. I don’t know if the opportunity will stretch into March, but it is possible.
Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk Forums
James48843
Well-known member
James48843
Well-known member
I’m pretty confident (65-70%) that your words will be obeyed, but it’s not going to happen for a couple of days, I think. This downward cycle is going to be a rather large one, because the trip up higher was longer than usual.
Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk Forums
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