James48843 Account Talk

[nasa1974]

I feel a disturbance in the force.

Yes- it is clear now. It’s time to move away. The force is about to rupture.

Moving to a new position outside the Death Star.

G= 80%
F = 15%
C = 02%
S = 02%
I = 02%

Moving to the safety of the Imperial Battle Cruiser.

Good luck!



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Interesting distribution. Good Luck and have a great 2020.

 

[James48843]

Mark this day in your logbooks-

 

[James48843]

OK_ Well, that disturbance in the force was just a little tremor in the Iraq area.

Back to the party.

Moving now to 50% "C" fund; 20% S fund, and 30% I fund, as I feel a falling dollar will help internationally, and the fear around the Iraq/Iran war subsiding in the week ahead. They are only going to target Trump properties. I won't be checking in to Maralargo anytime soon.

I'm being the contrarian here. Wish me luck.

Cheer! Effective COB TOMORROW (Tuesday).

 

[James48843]

So I saw this movie last night- for the first time ever.

"THE BIG SHORT".

Saw it on PLUTO TV.

If you haven't seen it, I highly recommend it. It was both very insightful, AND funny, in a dry-humor kind of way- just the way I like my humor.

Enjoy:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Big_Short_(film)

Go find it and watch it this week. You'll enjoy it!

Or TEN TIMES your money back!

 

[James48843]

I'm sitting here looking at the charts.

Darn nice climb the last three weeks. I'm thinking it's time for a breather, but I don't know if it's going to be a soft short pause, or a hard trip down.

I'm still in, because I already used my two moves for the month. If I had a third or a fourth, I would be moving probably towards the "F" fund with part of my cash. But I don't have any more moves this month, so the only place I can go is to G, if I wanted to.

I'm going to hang a little longer and see what direction the markets go. It still has a lot of momentum higher. The key will be if the markets blow off all the hubbub about politics, and if the economy is able to churn a little longer. I'm seeing a few signs (Like the trucking softness on shipping the last several months, and watching the housing and auto industries closely). Those signs tell me a recession is ahead- but I just can't tell how soon.

Here are the charts I am looking at today:

The "S" Fund is showing a LONG stretch upward. Maybe time for a break.



Same thing is showing on the P&F Chart of the S&P500 (C Fund). We've had a long trip up (15 X's) and it may be time to break.



And finally, the conventional candlestick chart of the S&P500 (C Fund) also showing that weakness today.
But the overall trend is still upward, so I am thinking that in a day or two, it may resume the upward climb. We just have to watch and see.



Good luck. I'm paying close attention this week and got my fingers crossed.

 

[tsptalk]

So I saw this movie last night- for the first time ever.

"THE BIG SHORT".

Saw it on PLUTO TV.

If you haven't seen it, I highly recommend it. It was both very insightful, AND funny, in a dry-humor kind of way- just the way I like my humor.

What took you so long?

 

[James48843]

Big signal in my face and I missed it. I’m scared. Anxiety—> fear. I’m thinking big drop already started and I missed the signs last week. I’m moving to G today.


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[James48843]

Changed my mind. I’m canceling transfer. May be making a huge mistake by canceling, but today’s strength more than I expected.

 

[tom4jean]

Changed my mind. I’m canceling transfer. May be making a huge mistake by canceling, but today’s strength more than I expected.

Great minds think alike, I did the exact same thing. I tried to get out on Friday but missed the cutoff time by seconds. I waited over the weekend to see what was going to happen with the market before I cancelled. Ultimately I decided that I tend to panic and I get out too many times when things go south, and I end up losing every time. I'm riding it out and hoping it goes back up, which it always does if you wait long enough

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[jonfresno]

I'm trying to strap on a pair of ol' Birchtree's sticky pants, but it's more gut wrenching when you get closer to retirement. Might need some Depends underneath the sticky pants.. Just hoping the bottom doesn't drop out right before the close.

Great minds think alike, I did the exact same thing. I tried to get out on Friday but missed the cutoff time by seconds. I waited over the weekend to see what was going to happen with the market before I cancelled. Ultimately I decided that I tend to panic and I get out too many times when things go south, and I end up losing every time. I'm riding it out and hoping it goes back up, which it always does if you wait long enough

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[nasa1974]

I'm trying to strap on a pair of ol' Birchtree's sticky pants, but it's more gut wrenching when you get closer to retirement. Might need some Depends underneath the sticky pants.. Just hoping the bottom doesn't drop out right before the close.

It does get scary as you get closer to retirement. It all depends on how aggressive you want to be. Being CSRS I convinced myself it's ok to be aggressive. Not to say I haven't had good and bad years. But I have had more good years than bad. Since 2004 I have only had 3 negative years. For the positive years 3 were single digit and 10 were double digit. My biggest loss being almost 13% negative. My best year just over 33% positive. I retired in 2012 and have stayed aggressive. It all comes down to what you are comfortable with. But I do like the idea of a pair of depends under the sticky pants. Makes clean up a bit easier. :laugh:

 

[ravensfan]

It does get scary as you get closer to retirement. It all depends on how aggressive you want to be. Being CSRS I convinced myself it's ok to be aggressive. Not to say I haven't had good and bad years. But I have had more good years than bad. Since 2004 I have only had 3 negative years. For the positive years 3 were single digit and 10 were double digit. My biggest loss being almost 13% negative. My best year just over 33% positive. I retired in 2012 and have stayed aggressive. It all comes down to what you are comfortable with. But I do like the idea of a pair of depends under the sticky pants. Makes clean up a bit easier. :laugh:

Nasa,

Thanks for posting this. It caused me to look back at my own performance since I retired in 2011. If I were to evaluate my investment strategy, I would say I have been on the "very cautious, conservative" side of investing. That is until I looked at the results. Since 2011 I have added over 25% to my TSP account, with the only year negative (-7.36%) in 2015. Granted my numbers will never be at the top of autotracker, but your post has made me realize that I have done very well for not a lot of risk.

Thanks

 

[tom4jean]

It does get scary as you get closer to retirement. It all depends on how aggressive you want to be. Being CSRS I convinced myself it's ok to be aggressive. Not to say I haven't had good and bad years. But I have had more good years than bad. Since 2004 I have only had 3 negative years. For the positive years 3 were single digit and 10 were double digit. My biggest loss being almost 13% negative. My best year just over 33% positive. I retired in 2012 and have stayed aggressive. It all comes down to what you are comfortable with. But I do like the idea of a pair of depends under the sticky pants. Makes clean up a bit easier.

NASA From reading your past posts you appear to generally buy and hold throughout the years, just changing up your percentages, would that be correct? I have 10 years to go in the Federal service and I'm seriously thinking about doing that. It worked for Warren Buffet

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[tsptalk]

NASA From reading your past posts you appear to generally buy and hold throughout the years, just changing up your percentages, would that be correct? I have 10 years to go in the Federal service and I'm seriously thinking about doing that. It worked for Warren Buffet

I would say it depends on whether you're talking about buy and hold = 100% stocks or being diversified in F and G as well, and that would be considered rebalancing as long as they stay constant - or close to it. Because changing those percentages, wouldn't really be considered buy and hold, but rather market timing.

My biggest loss being almost 13% negative.

The reason I say that is that nasa wouldn't have had a 13% loss in 2008 being fully invested. With C, S, and I losing 37%, 38%, and 42% respectively that year, that means there was some market timing / skill involved and that is not buying and holding. Capitulating to a buy and hold after a 12 year bull market sounds toppy to me.

Those negative 30% plus years, and we've had a few - although not for 12 years, can kill an account.

 

[nasa1974]

NASA From reading your past posts you appear to generally buy and hold throughout the years, just changing up your percentages, would that be correct? I have 10 years to go in the Federal service and I'm seriously thinking about doing that. It worked for Warren Buffet

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I do spend most of my time in the "S" fund. I don't make a lot of IFT's a year but I move in and out of other funds to try and limit my losses and improve my gains. Not always successfully. Currently I'm 50/50 C/S. Until this coronavirus scare I wasn't doing too bad. Believe me this is more luck than skill. Being CSRS I'm not really dependent on my TSP like the FERS folks are since I do have a full pension. With that said I sure don't want to tank my account either. Again this isn't for everybody and it just depends on how much risk you are comfortable with.
I honestly believe that 2 IFT's a month hurt us more than helps us. If we could convince the FRTIB to give us 4 IFT's a month we would all be in a much better position. Good luck.

 

[nasa1974]

Nasa,

Thanks for posting this. It caused me to look back at my own performance since I retired in 2011. If I were to evaluate my investment strategy, I would say I have been on the "very cautious, conservative" side of investing. That is until I looked at the results. Since 2011 I have added over 25% to my TSP account, with the only year negative (-7.36%) in 2015. Granted my numbers will never be at the top of autotracker, but your post has made me realize that I have done very well for not a lot of risk.

Thanks

Your welcome.

This is why this site is so great. It allows us to see what other people are doing and why and then to evaluate what we are doing to improve. Folks like (and I'm going to forget a few) coolhand, bquat, whipsaw, DreamboatAnnie and others post all kinds of charts and information that help us make decisions, educate us and makes us want to get more informed. Let's hope 2020 can be a positive year for all of us.

 

[tom4jean]

I would say it depends on whether you're talking about buy and hold = 100% stocks or being diversified in F and G as well, and that would be considered rebalancing as long as they stay constant - or close to it. Because changing those percentages, wouldn't really be considered buy and hold, but rather market timing.



The reason I say that is that nasa wouldn't have had a 13% loss in 2008 being fully invested. With C, S, and I losing 37%, 38%, and 42% respectively that year, that means there was some market timing / skill involved and that is not buying and holding. Capitulating to a buy and hold after a 12 year bull market sounds toppy to me.

Those negative 30% plus years, and we've had a few - although not for 12 years, can kill an account.

True there's still some timing involved. I'm not talking about an absolute hold through everything. But there's lots of little ups and downs here and there that are probably better held through, especially when you look at the big charts showing 10 years, which is that time frame I'm looking at until I retire. Obviously if there was big drops on the horizon or starting I would try to be out during those times, as I'm sure NASA was.

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[James48843]

Wow. I just read this article on the Daily Mail. The Wohan “Fish Market” where this virus supposedly started is actually just 20 miles from the NEW Chinese biological lab intended to study super-highly contagious bugs. I did not realize this until last night.

Link: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-7922379/Chinas-lab-studying-SARS-Ebola-Wuhan-outbreaks-center.html

Has me much, much more concerned than I was yesterday about the nature of this bug.

I’m going to MOPP-4 and bugging out to “G”, until I get a better idea what’s really going on.

 

[tom4jean]

Wow. I just read this article on the Daily Mail. The Wohan “Fish Market” where this virus supposedly started is actually just 20 miles from the NEW Chinese biological lab intended to study super-highly contagious bugs. I did not realize this until last night.

Link: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/...udying-SARS-Ebola-Wuhan-outbreaks-center.html

Has me much, much more concerned than I was yesterday about the nature of this bug.

I’m going to MOPP-4 and bugging out to “G”, until I get a better idea what’s really going on.

Reminds me of the story of Lyme disease starting on a little island off of Long island, after an escape from a government lab.

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[James48843]

I just did a wild guess WAG on the math.

At the current rate of growth, the current 5,000+ confirmed sick is expanding- DOUBLING every two days (for the last 8 days).

At this rate, it will be more than 100,000 in just 9 days from now. And a million a week later. And at the moment the bulk of those Ill are in the most populous nation on earth.

Do you remember the 1971 movie “The Andromeda Strain”?

https://youtu.be/TL3LXKanzds

Go find it and watch it. Today.

The clock is ticking.

I’m moving to G.


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