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James48843 Account Talk
- Thread starter James48843
- Start date
James48843
Well-known member
Dang! Hard decision for me today.
If you had asked me yesterday, I would say that this morning's drop and rebound was a great signal that we have some base ready to be built here.
But the news isn't supporting much optimism.
Have we hit bottom? Maybe. But I don't know- I don't have a whole lot of confidence.
I'm going to wait until just before noon to decide what to do today. I MAY jump into stocks- but then again, maybe not.
This one is a hard decision for me.
If you had asked me yesterday, I would say that this morning's drop and rebound was a great signal that we have some base ready to be built here.
But the news isn't supporting much optimism.
Have we hit bottom? Maybe. But I don't know- I don't have a whole lot of confidence.
I'm going to wait until just before noon to decide what to do today. I MAY jump into stocks- but then again, maybe not.
This one is a hard decision for me.
James48843
Well-known member
I decided I'm going to wait one more day and see what happens.
Have a great day.
Have a great day.
DreamboatAnnie
Well-known member
I like your P&F chart...reminds me of JTH. I wonder what happened to him...??
Best wishes to You! :smile:
Best wishes to You! :smile:
James48843
Well-known member
Holy F
I just read the releases tonight on the information shared in Volker testimony; and the Trump impeachment hearings.
All bets are off. It is much bigger than I Thought.
I expect market tumble tomorrow.
Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk Forums
I just read the releases tonight on the information shared in Volker testimony; and the Trump impeachment hearings.
All bets are off. It is much bigger than I Thought.
I expect market tumble tomorrow.
Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk Forums
Khotso
Well-known member
Thanks for the heads up. Wish we could go back to fundamentals primarily driving markets rather than the frigging, every frigging day's, daily news.
James48843
Well-known member
Well, China says they won't interfere in internal US politics.
That must be the quid-pro-quo deal they cut for us not saying anything about the Hong Kong killings/protests/mess.
This morning- the markets seem in much better shape than I anticipated, so I am jumping BACK INTO STOCKS TODAY- with a move to 100% "C" fund. (C is stronger than S this morning. )
Wish me luck. I'm going all in.
The bottom held. So I'm optimistic of a bounce upward. Here's the P&F Chart of the "S" fund which confirms.
I'm a day late, but that's ok.
That must be the quid-pro-quo deal they cut for us not saying anything about the Hong Kong killings/protests/mess.
This morning- the markets seem in much better shape than I anticipated, so I am jumping BACK INTO STOCKS TODAY- with a move to 100% "C" fund. (C is stronger than S this morning. )
Wish me luck. I'm going all in.
The bottom held. So I'm optimistic of a bounce upward. Here's the P&F Chart of the "S" fund which confirms.
I'm a day late, but that's ok.
You will be safe now that I am out. I cant seem to get anything right this year. I worked a system that seemed like it would pay off in a normal market but a tweet here and there hurt me because you can't plan that. I decided to just monitor that plan for awhile longer and over the summer I signed up for a system, but unfortunately signed up at the wrong time and lost at that too (tweets hurt it as well). I just don't think this is my year and I'm at the point to where to much losses could start to hurt my future plans. Anyway you should be safe :nuts:
Last edited:
PessOptimist
Well-known member
Hi James, retiring is a very stressful time and things often don’t work out as planned.
I was planning on retiring at the end of 2016 but unexpected medical issues with the SO put that on hold. I also burned up my sick leave and annual leave with that issue. Plus a couple things came up with my own health which took some of that SL up. What I did was adjust my retirement plans to the end of the next year and when that wasn’t going to work out the end of 18.
Fortunately, my masters were accommodating about that. Part of that had to do with giving them 3-6 months’ notice of my intentions. LOL, when I announced in January 2018 that I was definitely retiring at the end of the year they all rolled their eyes and said “yeah, right. The only one who took me seriously was my immediate boss who along about the end of October announced some of my duties were being given to others on the team. He fought to have me shadowed but that is not the way it works at that agency.
The purpose of this post is not to be a pity party for anyone, just saying James, when plans don’t mature the way you hoped be flexible. If for whatever reason you cannot stay at the job then it is what it is. FWIW during some of the time I was still working I was convinced I could not stand another day at the job. I finally reconciled myself to the fact I was fortunate to still be employed and would continue to do what I could, ignoring the ongoing things I could not change. I did make sure team members were aware of these issues. The usual reply was “I know”. The attitude was to keep what we had working and not let our heads get too far “up the future” as I described some managers attitudes.
When I did retire, I was determined not to withdraw any TSP funds. That did not work out. Fortunately, I was able to save up some AL for a small lump sum and I was 67 and SO 63 before we started collecting SS. I fall into some window where I can draw spouse benefits and let mine increase until I a 70. That probably does not apply to you as you are a relative youngster I think.
I know you have posted it before but I do not remember your age, years of service as a fed or anything other than you will apply for your guard/reserve pension when you turn 60. Not sure when that is.
Back to my thoughts when SO came up with more medical issues that were going to require a long trip to California for me, I realized I needed to start withdrawing from TSP to cover things. I spent much time thinking it was the end of the retirement plan. After looking carefully at the numbers, I found that it was not really the end of life as we knew it. Just a minor setback and readjustment of future dream plans. As you mentioned, the new rules about withdrawals from TSP will help. If I pay attention and slow these withdrawals down when I can, we should still be OK in to our 90s.
I hope things work out for you and you get the retirement funds rolling in soon. In the meantime, please be of good cheer and deal with what life has handed you. You are not screwed, your retirement plans are. You can adapt them.
I am posting this in your thread instead of the new retirement thread just because. You can tell me to keep to my own business if you wish. You seem a little down about your situation. I was too.
Best of luck to you James.
PO
I was planning on retiring at the end of 2016 but unexpected medical issues with the SO put that on hold. I also burned up my sick leave and annual leave with that issue. Plus a couple things came up with my own health which took some of that SL up. What I did was adjust my retirement plans to the end of the next year and when that wasn’t going to work out the end of 18.
Fortunately, my masters were accommodating about that. Part of that had to do with giving them 3-6 months’ notice of my intentions. LOL, when I announced in January 2018 that I was definitely retiring at the end of the year they all rolled their eyes and said “yeah, right. The only one who took me seriously was my immediate boss who along about the end of October announced some of my duties were being given to others on the team. He fought to have me shadowed but that is not the way it works at that agency.
The purpose of this post is not to be a pity party for anyone, just saying James, when plans don’t mature the way you hoped be flexible. If for whatever reason you cannot stay at the job then it is what it is. FWIW during some of the time I was still working I was convinced I could not stand another day at the job. I finally reconciled myself to the fact I was fortunate to still be employed and would continue to do what I could, ignoring the ongoing things I could not change. I did make sure team members were aware of these issues. The usual reply was “I know”. The attitude was to keep what we had working and not let our heads get too far “up the future” as I described some managers attitudes.
When I did retire, I was determined not to withdraw any TSP funds. That did not work out. Fortunately, I was able to save up some AL for a small lump sum and I was 67 and SO 63 before we started collecting SS. I fall into some window where I can draw spouse benefits and let mine increase until I a 70. That probably does not apply to you as you are a relative youngster I think.
I know you have posted it before but I do not remember your age, years of service as a fed or anything other than you will apply for your guard/reserve pension when you turn 60. Not sure when that is.
Back to my thoughts when SO came up with more medical issues that were going to require a long trip to California for me, I realized I needed to start withdrawing from TSP to cover things. I spent much time thinking it was the end of the retirement plan. After looking carefully at the numbers, I found that it was not really the end of life as we knew it. Just a minor setback and readjustment of future dream plans. As you mentioned, the new rules about withdrawals from TSP will help. If I pay attention and slow these withdrawals down when I can, we should still be OK in to our 90s.
I hope things work out for you and you get the retirement funds rolling in soon. In the meantime, please be of good cheer and deal with what life has handed you. You are not screwed, your retirement plans are. You can adapt them.
I am posting this in your thread instead of the new retirement thread just because. You can tell me to keep to my own business if you wish. You seem a little down about your situation. I was too.
Best of luck to you James.
PO
James48843
Well-known member
Thanks for the encouragement.
I'm 59 and three months now. I am eligible to collect Guard retirement at age 60, next August.
I have 30 years (31 next month). So as FERS employee, I will be able to get Social Security supplement (which I understand isn't actually paid out until they do the final calculations on retirement- six months from my retirement date).
Aiming for next spring retirement- but may end up leaving in December or so. We'll see how it goes.
I'm 59 and three months now. I am eligible to collect Guard retirement at age 60, next August.
I have 30 years (31 next month). So as FERS employee, I will be able to get Social Security supplement (which I understand isn't actually paid out until they do the final calculations on retirement- six months from my retirement date).
Aiming for next spring retirement- but may end up leaving in December or so. We'll see how it goes.
Best of luck James!
James48843
Well-known member
OK - well, I don't know what's going on.
I just got this weird feeling in the pit of my stomach. It's NOT the "ichy hair on my scalp" thing. I can't put my finger on it.
But it makes me feel uncomfortable today. I don't know why.
Maybe it has to do with the Shiller thing I posted on the other page (that he "sees bubbles everywhere")
Maybe it has to do with manufacturing output falling for the first time in a long time.
Maybe it has to do with more uncertainty over the fate of the guy in the White House (Don't get me started), or the fact that yesterday they said we were going to send Armor to go protect oil wells in Syria (Oil wells? But not Kurds??? )
Anyway- whatever it is, i's something in my gut. And it isn't right.
SO I am taking my own hint, and moving the bulk of my $$ over into "G" fund today.
Happy Friday. Wish me safety.
At close of business (COB) today I will be moving to : 70% "G", 10% "F", 5% "S", 5% "I", and 10% "L Income".
Thanks!
I just got this weird feeling in the pit of my stomach. It's NOT the "ichy hair on my scalp" thing. I can't put my finger on it.
But it makes me feel uncomfortable today. I don't know why.
Maybe it has to do with the Shiller thing I posted on the other page (that he "sees bubbles everywhere")
Maybe it has to do with manufacturing output falling for the first time in a long time.
Maybe it has to do with more uncertainty over the fate of the guy in the White House (Don't get me started), or the fact that yesterday they said we were going to send Armor to go protect oil wells in Syria (Oil wells? But not Kurds??? )
Anyway- whatever it is, i's something in my gut. And it isn't right.
SO I am taking my own hint, and moving the bulk of my $$ over into "G" fund today.
Happy Friday. Wish me safety.
At close of business (COB) today I will be moving to : 70% "G", 10% "F", 5% "S", 5% "I", and 10% "L Income".
Thanks!
tom4jean
Member
James48843
Well-known member
Ok- listen here-
In the fall of 1987, I was walking down the hall at my university, and I heard the guy in a classroom tell another guy “use your student loan money to buy stocks! They just keep going up, and up. You can’t lose- it’s a trend, and you just gotta get with it!”
Well, less than a week later, the market crash of October 87 happened.
I’m telling ya- something is scaring the heck out of me right now. The economy is ok, but it is NOT great. There are blinking signs all around saying things aren’t quite right. I can’t put my finger on them all, but I am concerned - and it is causing me- a guy who normally stays invested, to sit on the sidelines right now- watching a +5% or more gain in a single month- its m mi asking me nervous.
Heck- I’m just saying- at some point, the market needs a breather. I’m dizzy at this rapid ascent. I need some oxygen.
Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk Forums
In the fall of 1987, I was walking down the hall at my university, and I heard the guy in a classroom tell another guy “use your student loan money to buy stocks! They just keep going up, and up. You can’t lose- it’s a trend, and you just gotta get with it!”
Well, less than a week later, the market crash of October 87 happened.
I’m telling ya- something is scaring the heck out of me right now. The economy is ok, but it is NOT great. There are blinking signs all around saying things aren’t quite right. I can’t put my finger on them all, but I am concerned - and it is causing me- a guy who normally stays invested, to sit on the sidelines right now- watching a +5% or more gain in a single month- its m mi asking me nervous.
Heck- I’m just saying- at some point, the market needs a breather. I’m dizzy at this rapid ascent. I need some oxygen.
Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk Forums
Thanks for the warning. I hope you're wrong but we know something is going to happen eventually.
One thing I may differ on, and you probably know I'm usually more defensive, is that stocks have been moving sideways for about two years now. Lots of rapid ascents, but several rapid declines too, so it feels like a consolidation. But yes, historically speaking, stocks are still at very high P/E levels. The question is whether the market justifies those high valuations. 0% interest rates kept stocks afloat for many years, and here they are going down again. Is it different this time? Maybe so.
By the way, the S&P was actually up 2% for the year in 1987 despite that devastating crash. And it was up every year from 1982 to 1989.
One thing I may differ on, and you probably know I'm usually more defensive, is that stocks have been moving sideways for about two years now. Lots of rapid ascents, but several rapid declines too, so it feels like a consolidation. But yes, historically speaking, stocks are still at very high P/E levels. The question is whether the market justifies those high valuations. 0% interest rates kept stocks afloat for many years, and here they are going down again. Is it different this time? Maybe so.
By the way, the S&P was actually up 2% for the year in 1987 despite that devastating crash. And it was up every year from 1982 to 1989.
James48843
Well-known member
What a strange day.
What a strange week/month/etc.
I'm moving to the sidelines today- just become I'm over 12% on the year, and we're at what I consider a kind of a lofty level.
So I just moved to :
"L-Income= 30% "
G-fund = 55%
"F -fund = 05%"
I -fund = 10%
Effective close of business today. My second move of the month is to safer and more secure positions.
What a strange week/month/etc.
I'm moving to the sidelines today- just become I'm over 12% on the year, and we're at what I consider a kind of a lofty level.
So I just moved to :
"L-Income= 30% "
G-fund = 55%
"F -fund = 05%"
I -fund = 10%
Effective close of business today. My second move of the month is to safer and more secure positions.
James48843
Well-known member
My gut is telling me we just entered an extremely volatile period of time, with an expectation of big swings.
i'm out right now- and going to stay on the sidelines to better understand to swings to come.
i'm out right now- and going to stay on the sidelines to better understand to swings to come.
James48843
Well-known member
What a strange week.
Throwing up my hands. I’m back in starting Monday. The dog wagged me.
Moving to :
C=30%
S=60%
I=10%
Effective COB Monday.
Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk Forums
Throwing up my hands. I’m back in starting Monday. The dog wagged me.
Moving to :
C=30%
S=60%
I=10%
Effective COB Monday.
Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk Forums
James48843
Well-known member
I feel a disturbance in the force.
Yes- it is clear now. It’s time to move away. The force is about to rupture.
Moving to a new position outside the Death Star.
G= 80%
F = 15%
C = 02%
S = 02%
I = 02%
Moving to the safety of the Imperial Battle Cruiser.
Good luck!
Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk Forums
Yes- it is clear now. It’s time to move away. The force is about to rupture.
Moving to a new position outside the Death Star.
G= 80%
F = 15%
C = 02%
S = 02%
I = 02%
Moving to the safety of the Imperial Battle Cruiser.
Good luck!
Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk Forums
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