James48843 Account Talk

[James48843]

Ok- so here is a strange question-

Do you think the software programmers were smart enough to remember the fact that February of 2020 is a leap year and has 29 days?

Or do you think they built into the system that February always ends with 28 days? (And unexpectedly give a one-day early new set of moves in the TSP? )

There is a high likelihood that the software timer is built on the month, and not the day field, so that we won’t get an early bonus.

There is also an equal chance that the software programmers programmed in the concept of leap year.

However, there is a small chance they may have built the software to think February always has 28 days.


I think I will make a try on the 29th just to see what happens. I’m out of moves now, but I’ll be curious to probe and learn characteristics of software design for future use.


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[tsptalk]

The 29th is a Saturday. Wouldn't that be COB 3/2 anyway?

 

[James48843]

The 29th is a Saturday. Wouldn't that be COB 3/2 anyway?

This time. The question is whether it will let me do it. Normally it doesn’t “unlock” until the last day of the month. It is unlocks it on Friday the 28th, I’ll know for the next Leap year.

I guess you have a point- maybe it doesn’t unlock on the last day trading of the month, it may know that the next trading day is the next month.

Dang, I thought I was going to get a tidbit of knowledge that might huge me an advantage in leap years. I guess not.

Anyway- Tom, you once said I have tiny bit of intuition on the future sometimes- - I’m thinking this one is screaming at me to stay away for a while. It’s not on the scale of the 2008 screams, but it is pretty loud in my psyche. This is saying it’s a good time to stay in safety for a while while things work themselves out . Good luck.


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[James48843]

Ok- my thoughts as we approach the close today with more than 4% down:

This is very much on track with what I am expecting. We were climbing up for so long - we are on a high roller coaster ride. I Expect the S&P tomorrow to get down between 2950 and 2900 to fill an old gap, as Nnuutt pointed out. He’s very much on track with my thinking. Whether that is the end of the fall, I’m not sure. Too hazy.

I think we MAY have a little bounce tomorrow, but even if we do, I predict next week will shed anything we get back in a weekend bounce, and we will slide down a little more next week. I think the MAJORITY of this hit is about over, but I don’t know what will happen a week from now, especially if the virus shows up big time in the US. It COULD be the case, so I’m going to play it more cautious than I usually do, and say that I am definitely NOT planning to jump back into stocks before at least the end of next week, if then.

The good news is — I looked at my account today, and I’m actually up $2,000 since the middle of last week, thanks to power from the F FUND. For the first time In a while, I’m hitting this one correctly. Thank you Lord for watching over my retirement plans.

Predictions:

1 soft bottoming at 2980ish. .

2. Firmer resistance 2925-2931. Maybe tomorrow.

3 hard resistance 2790.

If it breaks through 2790 we will be in a bear market for a while. I do not see indications of a bear market yet. I only see some panic and fear from some of the less experienced hands. The experienced money is sitting on the sidelines waiting for the smoke to clear a little. Good buying opportunities ahead.

Patience pays.

For the week, as if the close today, we are down a total of just about (-11.0%) off last week. Nice pullback, and now we wait to see if the bloodletting is close to being over.

What to watch for next few days:
1. More virus bad news ( market goes down)
2. South Carolina Primary Tuesday. If Biden wins big, market breathes and may bounce slightly. If Bernie wins big, market gets scared again. If they tie, no effect on market.
3. If Fed suddenly drops a half point interest rates, then that should steady markets a bit and I may try to play the bounce.



Good luck.


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[rangerray]

Thank you Lord for watching over my retirement plans.

You got that right. He is the best we can do.

 

[James48843]

Wow. It just blew through 2900 like a hot knife through butter.

I read the chart wrong yesterday- i said a hard stop at 2790- I should have said a hard stop at 2890.

I think it will pause a little but here, but it happened so fast, I’m 80% sure this is NOT the bottom. We MAY get an uptick later today. If we do- don’t be suckered in- I think there is more downside next week just based on how fast this is fallowing now.


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[James48843]

Oh jeeze- I read the chart correctly the first time. Hard stop at 2790. I got that off the P&F chart, that is a retrace level to about December of 2018.


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[James48843]

Hail Mary, full of grace...

Moving to 80%=C, 10%=S, and 10%=F just for good measure.

 

[James48843]

Crap- today's move hit up against the 200 day moving average and bounced off of it, and is headed weaker already.

Decisions decisions- do I cancel my Hail Mary?? 30 minutes to decide.

STOP STOP STOP

I just looked at the P&F chart for the "S" fund and changed my mind. Pretty sure now (60%) that we are abut to head significantly lower.

Cancelling my move - staying in G & F.

Here is the P&F that has me concerned.

 

[James48843]

Today's P&F chart of the S fund, (which appears tp be more granular than the C fund chart right now, but tracks almost the same)



Note to all- this mini-crash isn't exactly following past precedence- its very hard to determine where we are going next. im still on the side of caution right now.

 

[James48843]

Oh Heck- going 100% "C" fund. Boom!

 

[nnuut]

I see, Down/UP, Down/UP and DOWN/? What's next?

 

[James48843]

I see, Down/UP, Down/UP and DOWN/? What's next?View attachment 45584

This:

 

[tsptalk]

Oh Heck- going 100% "C" fund. Boom!

Cheers!

Too soon? :embarrest:

 

[Whipsaw]

You'll get a good price at COB!

 

[James48843]

Damn.

Definitely going to need a Corona tonight.

With a near 4% decrease today, I just lost $33,000 in one day. (Was counting on that to be a gain today, with a 273,000 positive jobs report and a whipsaw off yesterday's loss).

It's gonna be a tough one.

(Clink).

 

[exnavyew]

Guess who bought UPRO yesterday?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VKcAYMb5uk4

 

[jonfresno]

Well, I won't be alone staring at the ceiling at 2am trying to figure out how many more years I have to work to make up for lost TSP funds...

Hopefully we get it back soon. I have about six more years if the market doesn't give me a heart attack before then!

Damn.

Definitely going to need a Corona tonight.

With a near 4% decrease today, I just lost $33,000 in one day. (Was counting on that to be a gain today, with a 273,000 positive jobs report and a whipsaw off yesterday's loss).

It's gonna be a tough one.

(Clink).

View attachment 45603

 

[tsptalk]

Definitely going to need a Corona tonight.

With a near 4% decrease today, I just lost $33,000 in one day. (Was counting on that to be a gain today, with a 273,000 positive jobs report and a whipsaw off yesterday's loss).

Nice close. You can probably afford another 6 pack now.

+3% in last 25 minutes.

 

[James48843]

I moved to "G" and gave up.

I logged in and looked at my account this morning. I shouldn't have done that.

I am down $75,000 over where I was Feb 28, back when I was sitting in G and F, laughing that I had moved out a couple of days before, and thinking I'd wait until a clear quick
wave allowed me to capture some gains.

It didn't work out that way. The good news is-it could have been far worse, had I been a "buy and hold"er.

Stock Futures this morning are looking VERY grim- now down over 5%.

I'm out of moves, and sitting mostly in "G" .

Good luck .

As of 8:18 a.m. this morning:


[h=3]U.S. Stock Futures[/h][TABLE="class: wsod_dataTable, width: 200"]
[TR="class: wsod_futureQuote wsod_futureQuoteFirst"]
[TD]

S&P[/TD]
[TD="class: wsod_bold wsod_aRight, align: right"]-139.25 / -5.08%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Level[/TD]
[TD="class: wsod_bold wsod_aRight, align: right"]2,601.00[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Fair Value[/TD]
[TD="class: wsod_bold wsod_aRight, align: right"]2,739.79[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Difference[/TD]
[TD="class: wsod_bold wsod_aRight, align: right"]-138.79[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: wsod_indexTimestamp, colspan: 2"]

Data as of 8:18am ET​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: wsod_futureQuote"]
[TD]

Nasdaq[/TD]
[TD="class: wsod_bold wsod_aRight, align: right"]-402.00 / -5.02%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Level[/TD]
[TD="class: wsod_bold wsod_aRight, align: right"]7,601.50[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Fair Value[/TD]
[TD="class: wsod_bold wsod_aRight, align: right"]8,004.60[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Difference[/TD]
[TD="class: wsod_bold wsod_aRight, align: right"]-403.10[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: wsod_indexTimestamp, colspan: 2"]

Data as of 8:17am ET​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: wsod_futureQuote"]
[TD]

Dow[/TD]
[TD="class: wsod_bold wsod_aRight, align: right"]-1,231.00 / -5.22%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Level[/TD]
[TD="class: wsod_bold wsod_aRight, align: right"]22,344.00[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: wsod_indexTimestamp, colspan: 2"]

Data as of 8:18am ET​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]